NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical update for Friday, June 5 2009

7:32 AM

While strong shear continues to dominate much of the Tropical Atlantic, model guidance does hint for the potential for tropical development over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean Sea by next week.  

The water vapor image this morning shows a cold front is driving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, producing strong shear over much of the Caribbean Sea this morning.  Stronger westerlies under the influence of a strong upper trough over the central Atlantic is producing a great amount of shear throughout the tropical Atlantic as well.  These upper level conditions will continue to inhibit develop for much of the weekend.  However, as I’ve been hinting at the past few days, the stalling cold front over the eastern Caribbean will have to be watched as shear weakens, high pressure builds to the north, and conditions become more favorable.  A tropical low pressure system will have the potential to develop along the old cold front boundary.  

The current forecast for next week would suggest a southwesterly flow will develop from the Gulf Coast through the western Atlantic, which would force any tropical disturbance north and northeast through next week.  The track of the potential tropical system would therefore likely remain east of much of the United States, however I am not 100% confident of this until we find out where this tropical low actually forms.  Further, there is a very slight potential for some indirect influence of moisture advection from this tropical disturbance that will have to be monitored as the week progresses.

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