Another active pattern this week

10:32 AM

Weak high pressure is exiting off this coast through this afternoon while a very weak cold front is pushing south through New England and the eastern Great Lakes this morning.  This cold front will be a key player through much of this coming weak, as I will explain shortly.

For today, expect clear skies and very comfortable temperatures for this afternoon and this evening.  The cold front that will stall over the forecast area this evening with some increasing clouds, however no precipitation is expected.  Yet.

A well developed through and upper low over the Rockies and Plains will send a series of disturbances along the stationary front through the week.  The first such disturbance will move through the region on Monday afternoon through Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  There is some potential for a few of the thunderstorms will become severe as the majority of the region will be in “warm sector” of these disturbances, which means the atmosphere will be unstable and moisture will be plentiful.  

Another aspect to keep an eye on through the week will be the building moisture off the Southeast coast southwestward through the western Caribbean Sea.  This area of moisture will have the potential to be entrained into the disturbances cutting through the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through the week, which would provide thunderstorms with plenty of latent heat release energy to push thunderstorms into severe levels.

The stationary front is expected to push into the Atlantic by Friday afternoon with high pressure building into the Mid Atlantic by Saturday with clear skies.  Temperatures through the period will average near normal however dew points in the 60′s will produce humid conditions at times.

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