NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Evening Update- another disturbance on the way

8:13 PM

A disturbance along the stationary front is approaching the forecast area this evening with an area of showers and thunderstorms.  Given the heavy rain that has fallen, flood warning have been issued for parts of southeastern Pennsylvania this evening.  

These showers will continue to progress eastward through the overnight hours and will be aided by a developing low level jet stream at 850 MB, which will push mid level moisture northward into the forecast area.  The stationary front will slowly push northward over the next 12 to 18 hours ahead of a strong low pressure system that will move through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

The low pressure system will move through the region on Thursday

afternoon and evening with a threat of showers and thunderstorms.  The most significant severe weather will likely develop over the southern Mid Atlantic, however there is potential for a severe thunderstorm to clip southern New Jersey.  Through the entire weekend and into early next week, several weak waves of low pressure will move along the stationary front and bring a threat of showers.  However, despite the wetter GFS from this morning, I still think the weekend will have generally dry conditions as the high pressure system over the Great Lakes has stronger support than the weaker low pressure system along the stationary front.  This means that subsidence or sinking air will have more of an influence on the forecast area than what the model is suggesting in terms of QPF.  This is why you don’t go by QPF forecasts all the time, by the way.  

At any rate, I still expect a rather active period to continue into next week with the Philadelphia metro and southern portions of New Jersey having the most activity with showers and thunderstorms.

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