NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Low level jet strengthening

9:15 PM

I discussed earlier this evening that the majority of the showers and thunderstorms approaching the forecast area was from a mid level disturbance moving along the stationary front.  However, over the past few hours another important feature is starting to take hold over the Mid Atlantic back through the eastern Ohio Valley.  That feature would be the strengthening 850 MB low level jet stream.  

Note that over the past 2 hours that showers and isolated thunderstorms have started to form just north of the stationary front and pushing northward over much of Pennsylvania.  Basically, we can look at the low level jet stream at 850 MB like an upper level warm front.  The thunderstorms that are developing will have the potential to become severe at times, especially in respect to strong wind gusts.  As the disturbance over eastern Pennsylvania pushes eastward tonight, the threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will increase as the low level jet stream intensifies.  These thunderstorms will also be capable of very heavy downpours and frequent lightning as well.  

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