Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday June 10, 2009
7:30 AM
The upper low that has inhibited the development of any tropical disturbance over the Atlantic continues to weaken and move towards Europe this morning. However, westerly shear continues to influence much of the Tropical Atlantic and will continue to do so over the next several days. Another trough over the Caribbean this morning will also keep the influence of westerly shear over much of the eastern Caribbean through the next 48 hours.
Another concern is that sea surface temperatures are starting to run below normal over much of the Atlantic, a sign of El Nino 
gaining influence due to the constant westerly winds and upper troughs. Note that through much of the tropical Atlantic through the Gulf of Mexico, that sea surface temperatures are averaging a half of a degree to as much as 2.5 degrees C below normal, which is going to have a significant influence on the development of tropical systems through much of this year if these factors remain. The waters are well below normal off the African coast, which would have strong inhibiting influence for any disturbance coming off the coast. Meanwhile, the cool Gulf of Mexico will limit the potential for tropical disturbances developing over this region. Now granted, this doesn’t mean the Gulf of Mexico nor the Atlantic can’t support tropical cyclone development, however the abnormally cool conditions would suggest less energy or fuel is available for these storms than what is normally available.
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