NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Another cool, raw day for this summer

7:34 AM

The theme for this summer, raw and cool, looks to continue as once again the forecast area is positioned north of a stationary front this morning.  The forecast area is clearly under the influence of a marine air mass as an easterly wind fostered by high pressure over Maine and a stationary front over Virginia brings in the cool air mass from the Atlantic.  In some respects, this pattern is very much like a winter-like pattern.  Note that the front becomes a warm front over the Ohio Valley and western Pennsylvania and then the front is forced south in a cold air damning position via the influence of the high pressure over Maine.  Without the date information, some could think this is a pattern for January or February rather than June.  

Through the day, overcast conditions can be expected as moisture continues to move in from the Atlantic.  Temperatures through this afternoon will average a good 10 degrees below normal, struggling to break into the lower 70’s, while temperatures should be in the lower 80’s for this time of year.  Several weak disturbances at 700 MB will move through the region today, producing widely scattered showers.  However, I do not expect any organized, heavy precipitation through the afternoon.  

The low pressure system over the Ohio Valley this morning will move towards western New York by tonight, which will force the stationary front to the north as a warm front.  As a result, overcast conditions and scattered showers will remain a threat through tonight, however the isentropic lifting with this warm front is not very impressive.  While scattered showers will remain in the forecast, I do not expect wide spread rainfall.  There is potential for the 850 MB low level jet stream to intensify, which would support periods of heavy downpours in isolated showers, much like last night.  

As the low pressure system drives towards Quebec on Friday, a trailing cold front will follow with showers and a few thunderstorms on early Friday afternoon.  The severe potential for Friday will be limited based on the timing of the cold front moving through the region.  Given that the cold front will already move into eastern Pennsylvania by late Friday morning, the chance for the atmosphere to destabilize will be limited, thus the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms does not look great.  Of course, a mid level disturbance ahead of the cold front could enhance a few isolated thunderstorms, but overall I expect scattered showers with the passage of the cold front on Friday afternoon with an exit into the Atlantic ahead of the evening rush hour.

The stationary front will once again position itself south of the forecast area Friday night through Wednesday with weak waves of low pressure moving along the boundary through the period.  Meanwhile, high pressure will remained anchored over the Great Lakes and New England, which will keep a cool, marine air mass in place through much of the period.  The position of the high pressure system and stationary front will be key to forecasting each day as the more dominant feature of that day will dictate the conditions.  For example, today with the high pressure exiting and low pressure approaching, a cool and cloudy day is the result.  Through the period, I expect partly cloudy conditions with a risk of showers each day.  The further north you are located, the less likely you’ll see showers.  Temperatures through the period will average near to slightly below normal.

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