Thunderstorms over Ohio Valley to influence conditions this afternoon

8:43 AM

A strong Mesoscale Convective System or MCS is currently moving through the Ohio Valley this morning behind a warm front that ismoving through western Pennsylvania.  The MCS is supported by a mid level disturbance that is moving east along the frontal boundary and will approach the forecast area by late this afternoon.  While I do not expect the same intensity in the thunderstorms as seen this morning, the influence of this MCS will be interesting to keep an eye on through the afternoon.  

As the remnants of this MCS moves towards the coast, the interaction with the stationary front, the marine air mass, and the residual lifting of the mid level disturbance could produce elevated thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area, especially southern New Jersey.  As the thunderstorms become elevated, the precipitation will expand and become stratoform, which basically results in an area of steady moderate to heavy rainfall.  It should be noted that the model guidance is not picking up on this feature all to well, so how this disturbance influences the position of the stationary front remains to be seen.  The resulting rain cooled air mass along the coast from this MCS this evening may lead to the warm front never moving north of New Jersey, thus limiting any potential for thunderstorms on Friday.  

I’ll keep an eye on the feature and will update if needed this afternoon/evening.  This disturbance may have a significant impact on the Mets/Phillies game this evening.

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