NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Drier weather returns to the forecast area

7:58 AM

The rainy pattern that much of the forecast area has experienced this June is taking a short break, as high pressure positions itself over Maine this morning.  The position of the high pressure system will still force a marine air mass in place over the region, which is supporting the low clouds this morning.  However, the high pressure system will also suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area.  A few exceptions may be northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley where orographic lifting of the low level moisture off the Atlantic will support a few isolated showers.  Overall though, expect partly cloudy skies through the day and into the evening hours with temperatures averaging below normal in the lower to mid 70’s.  

High pressure and the easterly wind flow will remain in place through tonight and into Wednesday.  There is some potential for dense fog to develop along the coast by Wednesday morning, however the wind speed above 5 mph should inhibit dense fog from forming over most locations.  Trouble is brewing over the Plains through as another disturbance organizes and races towards the Great Lakes.  

As discussed yesterday, the trough that has brought round after round of disturbances through the region is lifting north and east into the Canadian Maritimes.  As a result, a strong disturbance over the eastern Rockies and southern Plains can now lift northeast and remain intact.  This disturbance will enhance a surface low pressure on Wednesday as the low moves towards the Great Lakes.  The stationary front that has been positioned over the Carolinas will be forced to move rapidly north and east towards the forecast area on Wednesday night and then through the forecast area on Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  

The forecast for Thursday is a bit more complicated than what guidance suggests.  For one, I think there will be two distinct precipitation types that will basically bisect New Jersey as the warm front progresses towards the north and east.  I don’t think the model guidance is giving the marine air mass enough respect and as a result the passage of the warm front may be a bit too fast, especially for Connecticut, southeastern New York including Long Island, and northeastern New Jersey.  However, the air mass behind the warm front is forecasted to be humid and much warmer.  Given the right conditions, like some sun breaking through in the afternoon, the atmosphere behind the warm front can become highly unstable, producing widespread thunderstorms.  However, on the other side of the warm front, the marine air mass would force these strong to severe thunderstorms to become elevated and therefore produce widespread heavy rainfall, which in turn will help cool the lower levels of the atmosphere and slow the progression of the warm front.  In short, Thursday may end up being a very wet day for the region and very active.  The questions that need to be answered is where is the warm front by Thursday morning, where is the surface high pressure and any ridge axis, and how strong is the low level jet stream that will force the warm front through the forecast area and into New England?  These questions I can not answer with confidence yet.  

Instead of a solid cold front moving through the region, a series of weak disturbances will rotate around the upper low/trough that will be in place on Friday through Monday.  This means that each day, a series of disturbances will touch off showers and strong to severe thunderstorms at various times of the day, much like the last several days.  The trough will start to lift out by Monday afternoon with the potential for drier conditions by Monday evening.  Although I don’t expect a wash out through this coming weekend, the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will hang over the forecast area through the period.  A bit of good news is that the forecast area will be on the eastern side of the trough from the surface to 500 MB, which will keep a warm and humid air mass in place over the region.  Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal through the weekend, so where dry and clear conditions do unfold, the weekend will be rather pleasant.

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