NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

A break in the wet weather today, but more rain on the way

7:15 AM

As low pressure exits the forecast area this morning, a brief break in the clouds and rainfall can be expected through the day.  In case anyone forgot, that big bright ball in the sky is called the sun, and no we are not in Seatlle.  Weak high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to move north of the forecast area with a weak northwesterly to westerly wind along with clear to partly cloudy skies.  The clear skies will also support significantly warmer temperatures as highs return to near normal levels once again, which is the mid 70’s to lower 80’s.  

However, another low pressure system is developing over the Great Lakes and western Ohio Valley this morning.  This low pressure system has the potential to produce a very rainy day for 

Saturday, however I have some doubts on the idea of Saturday being a complete wash out.  There is a large spread in the model guidance for Saturday.  When looking at the water vapor this morning, notice the large complex of storms seen in blues, oranges, and reds.  This complex of storms is called a MCS or a mesoscale convective system.  Why is this important?  Well, a MCS can tend to be unpredictable in upper level patterns that are in a state of change.  MCS storms move in the direction of the upper level winds and in this case winds will be backing from the west to northwest.  This is an important key.  The idea on some model guidance is that the MCS will move towards the forecast area with widespread showers and thunderstorms that will produce heavy rain throughout the forecast area on Saturday morning through early Saturday evening.  However, if the MCS slides just slightly further south, then the majority of the rainfall will miss much of the forecast area.  So the key for the forecast tomorrow morning will be the position and track of the MCS tonight.  I’m still expected scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of Saturday.

On Sunday, the strong low pressure system responsible for the showers and thunderstorms will exit the forecast area with a few lingering showers and thunderstorms on Sunday morning.  The upper level trough associated with this surface low pressure system will move off the coast while a ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast.  This transition in the pattern will finally bring more summer like conditions to the forecast area.  The combination of the ridge to the west and the upper low/trough to the east will produce a north to northwesterly wind from the surface to 500 MB, which will bring dry, cool air into the forecast area.  The position of the winds throughout the atmosphere will downslope off Appellation Mountains, which will produce much warmer conditions over the forecast area through next week.  In fact, there is some potential for temperatures to hit 90 degrees over the Delaware River Valley by the end of the week for the first time in June.  Through this period there will also be a threat for a sea breeze along the immediate coast, which would produce significantly cooler conditions along the immediate coast.  There is also a potential for low clouds and fog developing for each morning along the immediate coast as well.

Tags: air, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, break in the clouds, Bridgeport, case winds, Citi Field, clear skies, clouds, cloudy skies, coast, coastal waters, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convective, Delaware, doubts, east, evenings, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecast tomorrow, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Great Lakes, guidance, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, lows, MCS, mesoscale, mesoscale convective system, Mets, mid, misses, Mississippi, Model Guidance, models, mountains, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northe, Northwest, northwester, Ohio, oranges, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Rainfall, rainy day, Reading, Ridge, saturday evening, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, slides, south, southe, Storm, storms, Summer, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tomorrow morning, tornado, transition, transitioning, transitions, Trough, troughs, upper level winds, valleys, water vapor, weather, weeke, west, westerlies, westerly wind, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees