Pattern change promises a return of real summer conditions

7:15 Am

Summer-like conditions will return to the forecast area and will do so in a short period of time.  That means that humid air and temperatures in the 80′s and possibly 90′s will return to the forecast area.  When the hot summer conditions return, I’m willing to bet that the conditions will feel hotter and more humid just because many have been subjected to such a cool, wet weather pattern the past several weeks.  However, before we get to the warm conditions, we’ll have to deal with the low pressure that is stalled to the east of the region. 

The low pressure system over the western Atlantic is still rather strong and has a large range of influence, which extends into the forecast area.  Locations further west like over eastern Pennsylvania will be under less of an influence from this low pressure system will only have to contend with partly cloudy skies and an isolated shower.  However, closer to the coast, especially over Connecticut, eastern Long Island, and the immediate New Jersey coast; the low pressure system will have a stronger influence over the region.  The cyclonic rotation will bring disturbances and moisture from the Atlantic into the coast, which will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.  The low pressure system will continue to influence the region over the next three days, but to less of a degree each day.  The north to northwesterly wind over the next several days, will produce a down sloping wind component, which will allow temperatures to warm into the 80′s.  

Note the red colors over the Mississippi Valley.  This is an indication of a developing ridge that will eventually build into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  This ridge will continue to build towards the Mid Atlantic through the end of the week, which will bring much warmer conditions to the forecast area.  The ridge axis will be west of the forecast area, over the Great Lakes, which means a northwesterly upper level flow will allow cold fronts to still clip the forecast area with a risk of showers and thunderstorms.  The first of these cold fronts will move through on Friday afternoon and once again on Sunday afternoon.  

So has the wet pattern completely left the forecast area?  Well, not exactly.  What has happened is that the pattern will not be as amplified, which means the trough over eastern Canada will lift northward.  As a result, a pattern that resembles and produces warmer summer conditions will develop.

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