NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Severe threat for entire forecast area Friday afternoon

9:15 PM

A very active period of severe weather appears ready to unfold for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas on Friday afternoon.  

A trough that is currently over the western Great Lakes will move towards the Northeast by tomorrow afternoon, which will support an advancing cold front which is currently producing strong to severe thunderstorms over the eastern Ohio Valley and western Pennsylvania this evening. 

The forecast area will be under the influence of a warm, moist air mass with some of the warmest temperatures of the season thus far.  Temperatures will rise into the 80’s and potentially lower 90’s over the Delaware River Valley.  As the upper trough approaches at 500 MB; colder, drier air will move over the forecast area.  The interaction of the warm, moist air at the surface and the cold, dry air aloft will produce a moderately unstable air mass.  This aspect of the atmosphere itself would produce an environment for strong to severe thunderstorms.  However, strong PVA associated with the trough and strengthening upper level and mid level jet streams will further enhance the severe potential.  While vertically oriented directional wind shear is not expected to be impressive (thus the lack of tornadoes for this event), speed shear will be a factor and lead to the development of strong wind gusts, seen on the radar as bow echoes.  The additional combination of strong downburst due to rain-cooled air racing towards the surface and the strong mid level jet streams will support a significant potential for wind damage from these thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.  Another additional threat is that the very moist air mass that is currently over the forecast area will support very heavy downpours.  These downpours may lead to localized flash flooding.  

These thunderstorms will have an impact on the Mets/Yankees games played at 7:05 PM on Friday evening.  Visit NY NJ PA Weather tomorrow evening for the latest information before heading out to the big game!

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