NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tracking Severe Weather for Friday, June 26 2009

Latest updates towards the bottom!

7:57:38 AM: Showers and weak thunderstorms have developed over northeastern Pennsylvania this morning and northwestern New Jersey.

7:58:16 AM: These showers will continue to move towards the southern Hudson Valley and will produce cloud cover throughout the region.
8:06:18 AM: Dew points are rapidly rising into the upper 60’s throughout the forecast area, which is producing very humid conditions over the region.

8:36:14 AM: A mid level disturbance over south-central New York will continue to press east this morning.

8:36:41 AM: This disturbance will produce showers and weak thunderstorms over the forecast area later this morning through the early afternoon hours.

8:37:08 AM: The showers and thunderstorms with this disturbance are separate from the thunderstorms that will develop later this afternoon.

8:37:53 AM: The thunderstorms associated with the cold front will begin to impact eastern Pennsylvania around 3 PM.

8:38:44 AM: Thunderstorms will impact the Philadelphia metro by around 3-4 PM, New Jersey from 4-6 PM, and the New York City metro from 4 to 7 PM.
8:53:35 AM: Given the very humid low levels of the atmosphere, the showers and thunderstorms this morning will be capable of brief yet heavy downpours.

10:31:37 AM: Rapidly clearing skies over central and eastern Pennsylvania are setting the stage for the atmosphere is rapidly destabilize.

10:32:21 AM: Clearing skies should begin to develop over much of the Philadelphia and western New York City metros in the coming hours.

11:58:04 AM: Strong thunderstorms associated with the cold front are rapidly developing over western New York .

11:58:31 AM: These thunderstorms will continue to press east while the line will continue to build south and west through western Pennsylvania.

11:59:46 AM: Skies continue to clear over eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Low cloud will gradually lift over the rest of the region.

2:24:46 PM: Strong to severe thunderstorms are rapidly developing to the north and west of the forecast area.

2:25:41 PM: These thunderstorms are already producing nickel to quarter size hail and wind gusts over 60 mph.

2:26:15 PM: The atmosphere is rapidly becoming unstable as temperatures surge into the mid 60’s.

2:27:22 PM: Impressive thunderstorms are already moving through north-central Pennsylvania and will drive south and east over the next several hours.

2:28:13 PM: The most severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front and main line of thunderstorms.

2:28:54 PM: These thunderstorms will be capable of very large hail, very heavy downpours, frequent deadly lightning, and strong wind gusts.

2:29:34 PM: Isolated tornadoes are also possible over much of the Delaware River Valley, which includes the Philadelphia metro area.

2:38:50 PM: Expect a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued for the entire forecast area soon. The instability of the atmosphere should not be ignored.

2:57:22 PM: On cue, the SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0517.html

3:33:47 PM: An impressive severe thunderstorm is driving towards NE PA and will impact much of N NJ and the NYC metro.

3:35:02 PM: The thunderstorm hass an well developed bow signal which indicates very strong wind gusts.

4:07:43 PM: Several severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect from the Hudson Valley through NE PA.

4:08:58 PM: Severe thunderstorm warnings in PA include Wayne, Pike, Monroe, Carbone, and Luzerne.

4:09:33 PM: In New York, the severe thunderstorm warnings are in Dutchess, Putnam, and Orange Counties.

4:10:11 PM: In Connecticut, Litchfield and Hartford.

4:11:26 PM: These thunderstorms are producing very large hail, wind gusts over 60 mph, very heavy downpours, and dangerous frequent lightning.

4:12:36 PM: Weaker isolated thunderstorms are developing over much of eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey.

4:14:46 PM: How cold is the air aloft? Temperatures are crashing over Scranton, PA as the thunderstorm pass to the east by close to 20 degrees.

4:16:46 PM: The thunderstorms over Dutchess County, NY and Litchfield, CT are producing urban and small stream flooding.

4:17:39 PM: The line of thunderstorms to the northwest is producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

4:34:50 PM: Several official spotters are reporting hail up to 0.5″ to 2.0″ diameter hail and damaging wind gusts.

4:40:09 PM: A urban and small stream flood advisory is in effect over Luzerne and southern Lackawanna Counties.

4:52:57 PM: Severe thunderstorms are pressing southeast in Sussex and Warren, New Jersey.

4:53:49 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Sussex and Passaic Counties

4:54:36 PM: These thunderstorms are capable of quarter size hail, wind gusts to 60 mph, heavy downpours, and frequent dangerous lightning.

4:55:14 PM: I expect a warning to be issued in Warren County, New Jersey in the next hour.

4:56:03 PM: Meanwhile, isolated thunderstorms are developing over Schuylkill, Dauphin, and York Counties. These storm will progress to the east.

5:05:07 PM: As expected, a severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Warren County.

5:06:13 PM: A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for much of NE PA and throughout the Hudson Valley as rainfall rates exceed 2 inches per hour.

5:07:35 PM: A developing severe thunderstorm is rapidly growing over southern Westchester County and will drive through Fairfield County, CT.

5:08:32 PM: Strong to severe thunderstorms will rapidly develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms.

5:08:35 PM: These thunderstorms have the potential to become super cells.

5:09:12 PM: Super cell thunderstorms are capable of isolated tornadoes, large hail, and very strong wind gusts.

5:09:33 PM: Severe thunderstorms are impacting much of southwestern Connecticut and the southern Hudson Valley no.

5:10:01 PM: I expect severe thunderstorms to develop over northern New Jersey and New York City in the next 60 minutes.

5:18:31 PM: The line of thunderstorms are quickly diving south and east towards the New York City and Philadelphia metros.

5:19:02 PM: Over the next hour, I expect the thunderstorms over eastern PA to form a solid line of intense thunderstorms.

5:19:32 PM: The thunderstorms most significant severe aspect will be large hail and strong wind gusts.

5:20:21 PM: Hail up to 2 inches in diameter can be expected along with wind gusts over 55 mph.

5:31:00 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for much of NE NJ and much of New York City expect southeastern Queens, County of NY.

5:31:00 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for much of NE NJ and much of New York City expect southeastern Queens, County of NY.

5:32:02 PM: This warning includes Citi Field for those going to the game. These thunderstorms are capable of wind gusts over 55 mph and large hail.

5:32:41 PM: The line of thunderstorms is also producing frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

5:33:13 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been extended into Morris and norther Somerset Counties of New Jersey.

5:34:56 PM: This line of thunderstorms should not be taken lightly. These thunderstorms will produce heavy downpours and reduced visibility.

5:36:06 PM: Meanwhile strong thunderstorms are intensifying over Lehigh, Berks, and Lancaster Counties.

5:37:18 PM: A Marine Warning has been issued for western Long Island Sound. This warning should be extended through the rest of the Long Island Sound.

5:40:44 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Berks, County. The thunderstorms over southeastern PA are intensifying.

5:43:34 PM: A tornado warning has been issued for southern New Haven County and Fairfield County of Connecticut.

5:44:28 PM: Doppler radar indicates that a tornado has developed and is moving east at 20 mph.

5:45:09 PM: The tornado will move near Stratford, CT by 5:50 PM and south of Shelton, CT by 6 PM.

5:51:15 PM: Very heavy rain is developing behind this line of thunderstorms and is enhancing flooding potential over the Hudson Valley.

6:03:01 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for the northern shores of Suffolk County. A severe thunderstorm is approaching from the NE.

6:04:41 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Montgomery and Bucks County.

6:07:37 PM: The good news is that there appears to be some weakening of the line of thunderstorms over the past 15 minutes.

6:13:51 PM: Thunderstorms are intensifying over southeastern Pennsylvania and approaching severe levels . These storms will impact Philadelphia in 1 hr

6:24:11 PM: Additional severe thunderstorm warnings are developing over much of Bucks County and just north of Philadelphia.

6:24:33 PM: The line of thunderstorms over northern New Jersey has significantly weakened.

6:25:08 PM: For the most part, these thunderstorms will produce very heavy downpours, frequent lightning, small hail, and wind gusts up to 55 mph.

6:27:02 PM: A second line of strong thunderstorms is developing over south-central Pennsylvania.

6:47:01 PM: The most significant severe thunderstorms are now focused over Hunterdon, Middlesex, and Mercer Counties of New Jersey.

6:47:50 PM: A very intense thunderstorm is moving over the coastal waters of Monmouth County and northern Monmouth County.

6:48:42 PM: Encouraging news for the Mets/Yankees game is that the thunderstorms are weakening and the rain should exit in an hour.

6:56:19 PM: Severe thunderstorm warnings blanket Long Island back through eastern Pennsylvania, north of Philadelphia.

6:57:01 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued over northeastern Monmouth County, NJ for nickel size hail and wind gusts over 60 mph.

7:00:53 PM: Much of Southeastern Pennsylvania, central New Jersey, and much of Long Island is going to be impacted by these severe thunderstorms.

7:01:37 PM: These thunderstorms have shown the ability to produce mesoscale low pressure systems, which are producing small to large hail and heavy rain

7:02:12 PM: These thunderstorms are also producing very strong wind gusts exceeding 55 mph.

7:02:53 PM: Frequent dangerous ground to cloud lightning will be associated with these thunderstorms.

7:03:10 PM: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Philadelphia.

7:04:51 PM: A very intense thunderstorms is developing over western Middlesex and eastern Mercer County.

7:05:49 PM: This thunderstorm is producing large hail over nickel size, wind gusts over 55 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

7:06:09 PM: This thunderstorm is moving towards western and central Monmouth County.

7:09:06 PM: For those at Citi, rain is rapidly ending over northern NJ and the Hudson Valley, and will eventually end over Queens in 45 to 60 minutes.

7:14:14 PM: Rain starting to end over Bergen County. The worst of the heavy rain is over for Queens County and Citi Field.

7:15:12 PM: The strongest two thunderstorms are now located east of Monmouth County, NJ and over western Monmouth County.

7:16:00 PM: The threat for severe weather is over for Connecticut, New York City and Long Island, just heavy rain for the next 30 to 90 minutes.

7:16:36 PM: The thunderstorms will begin to weaken over the next several hours as the atmosphere naturally stabilizes.

7:17:02 PM: However, the threat for severe thunderstorms will continue for the Philadelphia metro and S NJ for the next 3 hours.

7:46:33 PM: Lost power here in Freehold so updating via iPhone

7:48:15 PM: The most impressive storms are over Burlington, Ocean, and Monmouth counties of New Jersey.

7:50:12 PM: I am observing frequent lightning and heavy rain fall in Freehold. Winds were gusting to 45 mph but have subside. No hail to report.

7:51:30 PM: The worst of the severe weather is to the south of Queens. Expected improving conditions the next 30 minutes.

7:57:04 PM: A potent line of thunderstorms is pressing south through Ocean and Burlington Counties of NJ.

7:58:45 PM: This line of thunderstorms will produce frequent lightning, large hail, heavy downpours, and strong wind gust over 55 mph.

8:01:25 PM: Much of southern New Jersey can expect to be impacted by this line of severe thunderstorms.

8:13:19 PM: A mesoscale low may be forming over eastern Ocean County, which can lead to large hail and very heavy downpours.

8:17:16 PM: Erie goldeng glow in Freehold, NJ in the aftermath of these thunderstorms.

8:26:54 PM: The strongest thunderstorms are currently located over Ocean County and the adjacent coastal waters.

8:42:12 PM: The strongest thunderstorms are now off the coast.

8:43:29 PM: The cloud formations on SNY were Mamatus clouds and indicate strong rising and sink air currents.

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