NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

No Fireworks from Mother Nature Expected!

7:09 AM

I couldn’t think of a catchy title this morning for the forecast, but I guess this will do.

The majority of the forecast area today will experience something they haven’t in a long time, or at least through the past 3 months.  Dry conditions.  That’s right, for most locations I do not expect any rainfall what so ever.  In fact, the sun will actually be out too, which means that those going to the beach can actually enjoy it today!

This is why I love the water vapor satellite.  We can clearly see exactly what is going on right now and what it means for the rest of the forecast period.  The Mid Atlantic and much of the Northeast is on the western side of the trough that has brought rounds of severe thunderstorms to the region.  This means that a northwesterly flow has been established over the forecast area at 500 MB and also that convergence and confluence is going on over the forecast area.  This leads to dry air, which can be seen with the black and red locations that’s right over the forecast area this morning.  Of course, there is still a potential for a weakening disturbance to move down the Hudson Valley through northeastern New Jersey, Long Island, and Connecticut, which could spark an isolated shower.  However, key on the isolated because most locations will not be impacted by any disturbance what so ever.

Of course, trouble is not far off as you can see a great deal of moisture driving through the Mississippi Valley this morning.  This moisture is associated with an area of low pressure that will approach the southern Ohio Valley by this evening.  The 500 MB pattern will be in a state of flux as the trough over the Northeast lifts into the Canadian Maritimes and a new disturbance intensifies and matures over the western and central Great Lakes.  This disturbance is currently over western Ontario this morning and will dive towards Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan this evening.  As the disturbance intensifies, the surface low over the Mississippi Valley will drive through the Ohio Valley and eventually towards the Mid Atlantic tomorrow.  

On Sunday, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry, however clouds will continue to increase.  As the low pressure system passes to the south, scattered showers will move into southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey by the late afternoon.  The showers will push north into central New Jersey and portions of the southern New York City metro by Sunday evening.  The low pressure track will remain well to the south of the region, so precipitation will only get so far north.  No rain is expected over Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, northern New Jersey, nor northeastern Pennsylvania through Sunday.  

A cold front will race through the forecast area on the tail of this departing low pressure system on Sunday night into Monday morning with scattered showers.  Clearing skies can be expected for much of Monday afternoon with seasonable temperatures.  

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will lift into eastern Canada on Tuesday while a weak cold front will pass through the region at the surface with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Clouds will linger into Wednesday with a threat of widely scattered to isolated showers through Wednesday afternoon.  The upper level pattern will once again shift as a deep trough develops over the West coast.  This trough will force a ridge to build over the Southeast and into the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to much warmer and dry conditions for the end of next week.  Temperatures will rebound on Thursday and Friday into the 80’s, possibly breaking 90 degrees.  Meanwhile, the southwesterly flow at the surface through 500 MB will bring an increase in humidity throughout the forecast area.

I do want to note though that this shift in the pattern is more of a reload to the constant upper level set up we’ve seen this summer.  I expect a trough to return once again by the end of next weekend with a return of a threat for showers and thunderstorms along with near normal to below normal temperatures.  Consider the end of the week into next week as the brief break in the pattern so make sure to get out doors and enjoy it!

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