9:49 AM

This morning, the exiting trough over the coastal waters of New England is suppressing the low pressure system moving towards the southern Mid Atlantic coast.  The trough is producing strong confluence and convergence over much of the forecast area which is suppressing precipitation to the south of New Jersey.  As a result, while clouds will continue to increase, most of the region can remain dry.  

Weak high pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the forecast area this evening through tomorrow with clear to partly cloudy skies.  A weak low pressure will pass through the region on Monday night and Tuesday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  

The model guidance last night took an unexpected shift towards a much cooler forecast for the end of the week.  I have some doubts on the GFS solution.  While the seasonal pattern does support the development of an upper level low settling over the Northeast, the process in which the GFS produces the upper low over the Northeast towards the end of this week does not make much scientific sense.  The problem is that upper level lows usually do not form in progressive patterns.  The ECMWF does have a more realistic solution with a brief ridge developing for the end of the week and then a trough by the end of the weekend.  As a result, I am sticking with the ECMWF for the forecast period.  

A cold front will drive through the forecast area on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  High pressure will build into the region on Thursday and Friday with clear to partly cloudy skies.  An area of low pressure will move through the region on Saturday afternoon with additional showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal through the forecast period.

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