NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Another active week ahead

12:06 PM

This afternoon will certainly be very enjoyable for everyone out there, especially compared to last night’s rain event.

I just want to cover the development of the MCS first before getting into this week’s weather discussion.  The Mesoscale Convective System that developed last night was supported by a strong upper level disturbance that drove from the Ohio Valley through western Pennsylvania, and then right through central New Jersey overnight.  The disturbance was a strong jet streak at 500 MB, which supported strong lifting and thus the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southwestern Pennsylvania.  As the upper disturbance strengthened, the thunderstorms became a cohesive area of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms which marched through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and eventually through Long Island.  All of this developed due to one disturbance that happened to intensify at just the right time.  Got to love mesoscale meteorology!

This morning, the trough that supported the strong cold front and the upper disturbance from last night is now off the coast.  Note that the trough axis is tilted in a negative fashion with dry air directly over the forecast area.  The orientation of the trough is producing strong subsidence or sinking air over the region and is supporting surface high pressure which will bring tranquil conditions to the region through tomorrow morning.  However, another developing upper low over western Ontario (trough 2) is already getting its act together as the pattern reloads once again.  The new upper low will develop over the central Great Lakes and send a series of weak disturbances through the Mid Atlantic once again through this week starting on Monday afternoon.  As I discussed yesterday, the speed and position of each disturbance will have to be monitored each day to nail down the impacts for the forecast area.  However, the same type of conditions can be expected to continue this up coming week with what has been seen for the past several weeks which is partly cloudy skies, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, and temperatures stuck in the 70’s and mid 80’s for afternoon highs.  Note that the ridge over the Mississippi Valley and central Plains is well established and isn’t going anywhere.  The upper level pattern continues to send disturbances from southwestern Canada into the Great Lakes and eventually through the Mid Atlantic with no end expected.  With El Nino becoming established and the rest of the Pacific showing no signs of change from this current pattern, the potential for a break in this pattern is slim at best.

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