NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

One more dry day before active pattern returns

7:07 AM

High pressure will move through the forecast area today with clear skies and pleasant conditions through this evening and into Thursday morning.  The forecast area is currently in between two troughs over the eastern two-thirds of the United States.  One trough is exiting from New England and progressing into the Canadian Maritimes.  The forecast area is under the influence of a persistent dry northwesterly flow and an area of convergence and confluence, which supports surface high pressure.  The other trough is currently moving into the western Great Lakes and will continue to establish itself throughout all of the Great Lakes through the day.  A weak upper level ridge has developed over the Ohio Valley as a buffer between the two troughs and will progress towards the Mid Atlantic over the next 24 hours, ensuring a continuation of dry conditions into Thursday morning.

The cold front associated with the developing upper level low will drive through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon and evening with wide spread showers and thunderstorms.  Currently, the upper level dynamics nor the instability of the boundary layer will support a severe event unfolding across the region, however I can’t rule out an isolated severe thunderstorms especially over the Delaware River Valley.

The upper low and trough at 500 MB will set up shop once again over the central Great Lakes and send several disturbances through the region.  A second cold front will approach on Friday evening with more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The greatest risk on Friday afternoon from these thunderstorms will be strong wind gusts and large hail as the colder 500 MB layer helps to destabilize the atmosphere.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will weaken through the weekend as the patterns goes into a slight shift in influence.  While the Pacific continues to send disturbance after disturbance into the Eastern United States, the NAO will trend towards neutral, which means that a more progressive and further north Polar Jet stream can be expected.  A weakness or weak 500 MB trough will remain over the East coast through this weekend and into early next week, which will continue to put the forecast area under the threat for precipitation.

On Saturday, the trough will start to lift out with the last well developed low pressure system from this upper low passing to the southeast of the forecast area.  Scattered showers can be expected on Saturday through early Sunday morning as the low pressure passes to the east of the forecast area.  As the low pressure exits on Sunday morning, high pressure will build in briefs from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  Another disturbance will bring a threat of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, especially along the immediate coast.  Temperatures through the period will remain near to slightly below normal.

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