6:41 AM

After an active evening and overnight period of showers and thunderstorms, which produced damaging hail, wind gusts, and flash flooding, the trough responsible for the thunderstorms is now beginning to lift into eastern Canada.  As a result, the forecast area will be under the influence of sinking air, which will support weak high pressure to take hold over the forecast area this weekend.

Currently, skies are rapidly clearing and a very warm and sunny afternoon can be expected for much of the forecast area.  A few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms may still threaten interior Connecticut, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail today through Sunday.  Temperatures through this weekend will range from the lower to mid 80′s for highs.  All in all, a perfect beach weekend!

The pattern begins to change by Monday as a Bermuda High establishes itself to the east.  As discussed yesterday, the combination of the ridge to the east and a deepening trough over the western Great Lakes, will put the region in a strong southwesterly flow through next week.  This position of the upper level features will allow warm, moist air to enter the forecast area, which will lead to some humid afternoons for the region.  However, to complicate matters, the trough will send disturbances through the Tennessee Valley and eventually through the Mid Atlantic each afternoon.  These disturbances will interact with the warm, moist, and unstable air mass in place to produce round after round of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon.  While it is impossible to pin point where these thunderstorms will develop each afternoon, climatology would suggest a focus over the Delaware River Valley through the Hudson Valley would be wise.

So while warmer and more summer like conditions can be expected, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will likely taper high temperatures through the week and make for frustrating conditions for planning outdoor events.

Tags: afternoons, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, bermuda high, Bridgeport, Citi Field, climatology, coastal waters, Connecticut, delaware river valley, eastern canada, forecast area, Freehold, Great Lakes, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, High Temperatures, Hudson Valley, Islip, level features, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Mid Atlantic, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, showers, southwesterly flow, sunny afternoon, Sussex, Tennessee Valley, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Trough, unstable air mass, warm moist air, White Plains, Wild Wood, wind gusts, Yankee Stadium, Yankees