NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Weather Update for Saturday, July 18 2009

7:32 AM

A trough at 500 MB is sliding south through the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning and will continue to progress through the Gulf of Mexico through the next 48 hours.  The trough will produce strong southwesterly upper level winds, which will prevent any disturbance from forming.

The western Caribbean is under the influence of strong surface high pressure this morning, however a disturbance over the central Caribbean will bring increasing clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The disturbance is under the influence of strengthening southerly shear which is inhibiting any development at this time.

An upper low to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles is supporting the development of wide spread showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean and out into the central Atlantic.  The upper level winds around this upper low is producing shear from the west and southwest.  No development is expected from this disturbance over the next 48 hours.

Further out into the Atlantic, two disturbances have marginally developed, however no closed circulation has been observed so far.  Upper level conditions to the west are not conducive for further development and any development that happens over the next 48 hours will be slow to occur.