NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Something is not right with this situation

11:30 AM

Water Vapor and Upper Level Winds-NWS/NOAA

This morning, I discussed in great detail on what the model guidance was suggesting will occur over the next 24 hours that will keep the heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Ida and the Sub Tropical disturbance well to the south.  The idea even now in the model guidance is that the disturbance in the Polar jet stream would force all of the moisture to the east while supporting a strong area of high pressure over the Great Lakes to suppress the rainfall to the south over Virginia.  However, as I’ve been watching the observations come in, I continue to see little if any evidence of the high pressure building south into the northern Mid Atlantic.  All of the strongest pressure rises are located over the central Great Lakes.  In fact, as the cold front that was supposed to be well off the coast is still currently stalled right along the New Jersey coast.  Meanwhile, the trends in the upper level winds currently do not support this moisture simply heading into the Atlantic, bypassing much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.  Instead, based on the 12Z observations, a very strong Sub Tropical jet stream is driving the moisture over the Southeast along the Appalachian Mountains towards southwestern Virginia.  24 hours ago there was NO support for this to occur and in the new 12Z guidance, no indication of this push of moisture into Virginia already.

Another important observation to take note of is the radar signals over the northern Mid Atlantic.  While clearly precipitation is not falling, yet.  We can get an idea of where the boundary for deep layer moisture is setting up, and that happens to be right over the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area.  Again, if the high pressure system is going to suppress this moisture, it better do so quickly.  As you can see to the left, radar echos are increasing over southwestern Virginia and showing signs of increasing throughout the northern Mid Atlantic.

This afternoon will be key to this forecast.  The current trends will have to show that the high pressure system over the Great Lakes will have to build south and east quickly to shunt much of this moisture into the Atlantic.  The Polar jet stream disturbance will also have to start to push this Sub Tropical disturbance east AND alter the current upper level wind currents that are quickly pushing this moisture north and east.  All of this is possible, but this is going to be a tight call.

Through the afternoon and evening, I will produce constant updates and observations if any significant changes from the forecast will have to be made.  I will update via Twitter and on this page, so feel free to follow either discussion.

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