NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tracking the coastal storm, 11/11/09

9:01:54 AM: Rainfall is become focused along the central and southern New Jersey coast as high pressure and dry air presses south.

9:03:38 AM: Pressure falls continue to develop off the North Carolina coast extending through the Gulf Stream. A transition appears to be developing.

9:04:35 AM: Meanwhile, a more solid phase can be observed on the water vapor satellite as the upper level low with this storm moves ENE rather than E.

9:05:28 AM: The influences of the Bahamas disturbance clearly has forced this storm further north by building the western Atlantic ridge at 500 MB.

9:05:57 AM: As a result, the Polar disturbance is phasing with the Sub Tropical disturbance more completely than earlier expected.

9:06:23 AM: This is why the model guidance has trended and will continue to trend northward with the higher QPF.
9:10:12 AM: As the day continues, I expect the press down on precipitation to continue through NYC and approaching Philadelphia.

9:10:37 AM: However, as the dry air presses down, the rain along the New Jersey coast will intensify as moisture convergence increases.

9:11:12 AM: Southern and central New Jersey is in for a very wet couple of days. I will continue to update through the day via this medium.

9:11:56 AM: I’ll try for an update on thoughts at once every one to two hours, depending on circumstances of this event.

9:12:13 AM: As of now, I can say that the going thoughts from last night are working out very well.

11:07:48 AM: The rain is slowly stopping the southward trend of the early morning. Light to moderate rain will continue along the C and S NJ coast.

11:08:33 AM: The pressure gradient will increase through the day as the coastal low develops off NC.

1:23:27 PM: The new coastal low is offically taking shape off the central coast of NC where the wind vectors are rapidly converging and pressure falling

1:24:25 PM: Meanwhile cloud tops continue to rapidly cool over the northern Mid Atlantic as lifting at all levels increase.

1:25:31 PM: The increased lifting is due to the phasing of the Polar disturbance with the Sub Tropical disturbance.

1:27:01 PM: Rain is rebuilding northward and is expected to reach much of the Philadelphia metro and central NJ. Showers will in increase over NYC.

1:28:31 PM: Rain will increase in intensity over the C and S NJ coast along with sustained winds between 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

6:55:24 PM: Through this afternoon the storm has developed as expected as rain continued over southern NJ and PHL.

6:57:50 PM: This evening I will up grade to a new coverage format that will intergrate Twitter. The live coverage will begin between 8 and 8:30 PM.

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