Wet and raw conditions expected for the New Jersey coast

5:00 AM

Over the past several days, I have discussed a great deal about the potential impacts that the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida will have on the northern Mid Atlantic.  It is now clear that the models in general have handled this pattern poorly.

Surface this afternoon

A surface low will develop off the North Carolina coast this afternoon along the stationary front .  As the upper level disturbance deepens and moves towards the Southeast coast, the surface low will continue to develop and intensify.  Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build over the eastern Great Lakes, producing an increasingly intensifying pressure gradient.  Expect this pattern to continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend as the surface and upper low locks in over the southern Mid Atlantic coast and the high settles over New England.  The combination of these two features from the surface to 500 MB will

Rain through tonight

lead to a constant advection of Atlantic moisture into the New Jersey coast line, leading to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.  I’m expecting a mesoscale boundary to develop over the southern and central New Jersey coast due to the converging low and mid level winds, which will lead to increased lifting from central Monmouth County southwards through Cape May County of New Jersey.

The map to the left illustrates the rainfall threat through tonight.  Periods of steady moderate to at times heavy rainfall can be expected along the immediate New Jersey coast.  Lighter rainfall, scattered at times, can be expected over the Philadelphia metropolitan area.  Locations further north and west and much of the New York City metropolitan area can expected more scattered showers through the evening hours.  Finally, under the influence of dry conditions, northeaster Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and much of Connecticut will remain dry.

As the low pressure system slowly meanders off the Mid Atlantic coast on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday; the persistent northeaster to easterly wind will continue along the coast leading to overcast conditions and periods of rain from southern Connecticut through southern New Jersey.  Locations further north and west will be drier with more breaks in the cloud cover and more widely scattered precipitation.

By the end of Saturday, over an inch of rainfall can be expected along the immediate coast, especially over southern and central New Jersey.  This period through Saturday will be marked with overcast clouds, drizzle (when heavier rain isn’t falling), and sustained winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts along the coast.

By Sunday, a cold front will move through the region providing clearing skies after a few afternoon showers.  High pressure will take hold for Monday and Tuesday followed by another strong cold front on Wednesday.

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