NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Significant coastal storm through Saturday

5:00 AM

Over the past several days, I have been tracking the approach of then hurricane Ida, which was entrained into a Sub Tropical disturbance and is now phasing with a Polar disturbance over the Mid Atlantic coast.  Model guidance has been wildly inconsistent in the forecasting of this storm, however the forecast at NY NJ PA Weather has remained generally constant with the idea that a major coastal storm was a threat.

This morning, a new coastal low continues to rapidly deepen off the North Carolina coast as waves of steady moderate to heavy rainfall has moved into much of the Philadelphia metropolitan area and the southern and central New Jersey coast.  Meanwhile, high pressure over central New York continues to slowly slide east towards New England, where the high pressure is expected to remain through Saturday morning.  The combination of the high pressure to the north and the developing coastal low to the south will continue to support a strengthening pressure gradient, which will be capable of sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph along the immediate coast and 15 to 30 mph over the rest of the coastal plain.  Winds will be much weaker over the interior, range from 10 to 20 mph.

There are many components to this storm to consider this morning.  For example, the upper level low that was once over the Bahamas is also become entrained into the upper level structure of this storm.  This upper level low will aid to force the trough to tilt towards a negative axis.  This tilting of the trough to a negative axis will force the surface low to slow or even stall off the Delaware coast tonight through Friday morning and enhance the moisture advection off the Atlantic.  Another component to consider is the strong high pressure system to the north, which will continue to enhance the pressure gradient through Saturday morning with a constant northeasterly wind over the region.  This strong northeast to easterly persistent wind over the next 66 hours will also aid in enhancing coastal flooding, especially along the New Jersey coast and in the battery of New York City.  This persistent northeasterly to easterly component extends up through 500 MB, which will mean plenty of moisture will be available for the storm through Saturday.  The abundant amount of moisture in the atmosphere will eventually saturate the atmosphere at all locations and lead to periods of light rain and drizzle along the coast in between lulls in the steady precipitation.  A third factor is the development of mesoscale lifting via banding along the coast as the moisture interacts with the coastal front along the New Jersey coast, which will be capable of enhancing rainfall amounts.

Rain Through Saturday

Rainfall amounts through Saturday night will be very impressive along the coast.  Much of southern New Jersey will experience the brunt of the heavy rainfall with over two inches of rain expected with some locations exceeding four inches, especially towards Cape May and Atlantic Counties.  One to two inches of rain can be expected over the immediate Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas including much of central New Jersey and Long Island.  Locations further north and west can expect less as the best lifting will clearly remain focused along the coast.  An additional threat will be the strong winds from the northeast and east, sustained at 20 to 35 mph with gusts exceeding 40 mph, especially along the immediate coast.  Wind damage will be a threat throughout the region, especially on Friday morning.  Coastal flooding will be an issue from the Delaware Bay through the Long Island Sound.  However due to the trajectory of the winds, locations along the New Jersey coast stand to experience the worst in coastal flooding where tides can exceed 8 1/2 feet in some bays.  Naturally with the heavy rain, flash flooding and urban flooding will be a threat along with significantly reduced visibility on the roadways through Saturday morning.

The storm will exit the Mid Atlantic coastal waters on Saturday night with drier conditions on Sunday.  High pressure will remain in control through next week, however weak disturbances will bring a threat of showers every so often in the afternoon hours.

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