6:45 AM

A lot of interesting developments happened over night as a gravity wave appears to have impacted the southern Mid Atlantic, which caused the rain shield to unexpectedly collapse overnight.  However, another round of rain has finally started to move back into the coast from southern Connecticut to south-central New Jersey.  Despite the unexpected relatively dry conditions late last night, rainfall amounts have been on track to what has bee expected, which is a focus along the southern and central New Jersey coast.  For example, Atlantic City, New Jersey has recorded rainfall amounts officially from the National Weather Service of 1.31 of rain with more rainfall yet to come.

6 AM Observations- Penn State E-Wall

This morning, the strongest pressure gradient has moved north, generally right over the coastal northern Mid Atlantic.  Winds are sustained across the region around 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph at times.  As the day progresses, winds will remain strong over the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas.  There is a threat of some mid level wind gusts to work down via heavy downpours to push wind gusts over 45 mph at times.  Urban locations will also have the added influence of air moving through tight spaces (buildings) that will also enhance wind gusts.

The strong northeast winds have also had an impact on coastal flooding as tides pushed to over 7.5 feet in many locations.  Atlantic City reported tides of 7.57 feet which produced a moderate flood stage for the immediate coast.  As the easterly fetch continues through this afternoon and into tomorrow morning, tides will remain around 7 to 8 feet, which will put much of the coast under a moderate stage of flooding.

Convection continues to explode off the coast due to strong divergence at the upper levels.  The upper low has drifted far enough north to start to feel the influences of the Polar Jet stream streaking through New England.  As a result, a jet streak has formed off the New England coast, which is causing some of the moisture associated with this storm to move into the Atlantic, rather than into the coastal plain.  However, the dominant feature will remain the well developed coastal low and the upper low, which will force Atlantic moisture into the northern Mid Atlantic coast through tonight.  The end of this storm is near though as a strong Sub Tropical and Polar jet stream blows through the Plains and will eventuall force this storm into the northern Atlantic.

Through tonight, rain will continue rotate into the northern Mid Atlantic.  The heaviest rain will be

Through Tomorrow

focused along the New Jersey coast through Long Island, however an increase in scattered showers and periods of light rain can be expected for locations north and west of the New York City metropolitan area and the Philadelphia metropolitan area.  Winds will remain strong through tomorrow morning ranging from 15 to 30 mph throughout the coastal plain and 10 to 20 mph over the interior.  Winds gusts associated with low level jet streaks mixing down in heavier downpours will lead to strong wind gusts over 45 mph, especially along the coast.  I should note though, that interior locations are also at risk of strong wind gusts as well via the same mechanism.

The low pressure system will start to pull away tomorrow with lingering showers through the early afternoon.  Drier conditions can be expected on Saturday night as weak high pressure slides through New Jersey.  A cold front will follow on Sunday morning with a few additional showers followed by dry and warm conditions for Sunday afternoon.

As a deep trough develops over the western United States, a new ridge will build over the East through next week, leading to strong high pressure establishing control from Monday through Friday.  Clear skies, dry conditions, and near to above normal temperatures can be expected through next week.

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