NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Coastal storm comes to an end

6:45 AM

5 AM Observations

The coastal storm that has battered much of the New Jersey coast with significant flooding and has produced heavy rain along much of the coast is starting to wind down.  An inverted trough extending from the surface low pressure east of North Carolina continues to enhance low level forcing over much of the northern Mid Atlantic.  However, pressure within this area of low pressure continues to rise rapidly suggest the storm is starting to fill and weaken.  As a result, the pressure gradient between the much stronger high to the north and the low pressure to the south is also weakening.  Winds continue to decrease and weaken from the north and northeast, down to sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts around 30 mph.

The rainfall today will be supported by two distinct features which can be seen on the water vapor

Morning Water Vapor-NWS/NOAA

satellite this morning.  The first area of rainfall is located over much of southern New England, eastern Connecticut, and eastern Long Island.  A second area of rainfall is developing over much of eastern New Jersey from Passaic to Ocean Counties.  A third area of rainfall is also developing along the Delaware River including much of Philadelphia.  This rain is developing due to the continued advection of moisture from the upper low to the east of North Carolina and the advancing jet streak approaching from the Ohio valley.  This jet streak is going to eventually force the coastal storm into the Atlantic, but not without a stubborn fight to give up real estate.  As a result, moisture convergence at the lower, mid and upper levels is developing over much of the northern Mid Atlantic, which is producing areas of light to moderate rainfall.  The persistent easterly winds at the mid levels continue to feed moisture into the coastal plain, which will feed these areas of showers through the day.  Rainfall rates so far with these showers have ranged roughly 0.05″ to 0.10″ per hour, so we are not looking at extreme rainfall rates in this situation.  The good news is that the wind is no where near as strong as what has been experienced the previous 24 hours.

So through the day and into the evening hours expect overcast skies, some fog, drizzle, and in areas under the moisture convergent mesoscale bands, steady light to moderate rain.  The upper low will be slow to leave and so will the influences of that upper low, leading to broken to overcast clouds and lingering scattered to isolated showers into tomorrow morning.  A cold front will finally push the marine air mass back into the Atlantic on Sunday afternoon and allow for high pressure to establish itself over much of the Mid Atlantic.

Through next week, a deep trough and upper low will become established over much of the Rockies and Plains, leading to a strong ridge to builds over the eastern United States.  However, unlike the previous ridge which exhibited a strong southwesterly flow, this ridge will set up an axis to the west of the Mid Atlantic leading to a northwesterly flow from the surface to 500 MB through much of the week.  Temperatures through the week as a result will remain generally near normal with most locations in the 40’s over the interior and 50’s along the coast.

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