NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

High pressure through the week, another coastal storm for the weekend?

7:22 AM

Water Vapor- NWS/NOAA

A strong upper level disturbance developing over the southern Plains is building a ridge over the Southeast and southern Mid Atlantic this morning.  This ridge of high pressure will continue to build northward through the day as surface high pressure gains control over much of the Mid Atlantic.  The disturbance will eventually cut off from the Polar jet stream and become stationary over the Mississippi Valley through Wednesday.  As a result, high pressure will remain over New England through Thursday providing clear skies and temperatures slightly above normal in the 50’s for most locations.

The strong upper low will move towards the Ohio Valley on Thursday and become phased into the Polar jet stream once again.  A cold front will move through the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas on Friday with periods of rain, heavy at times.  Currently, the guidance suggest a slow cold front passage in the morning.

The weekend once again is looking rather interesting for much of the Mid Atlantic as the GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees suggesting another coastal storm is possible for Sunday and Monday.  The idea is that the cold front that slowly exits on Friday will stall over the Gulf Stream and off the North Carolina coast.  A disturbance from the Polar jet stream drops south into the Tennessee Valley and then the fun begins as a new coastal low takes shape and parallels the New Jersey coast on Sunday night.

Now, my thoughts on this is that the pattern is still progressive at this point.  However, it is clear that a pattern change is on the way at the end of this forecast period.  Beyond Sunday, there is strengthening consensus of a pattern change.  When the pattern changes, storms usually are the result.  So a storm in this time period is not unreasonable.  However, I would caution in trusting the details of this potential storm.  I should also note that this storm lacks a cold source, at least the way the guidance projects this storm right now.  The majority of the Polar air is still over the northern Plains and Rockies at this point.  In order to get that cold air towards the East coast, a much more significant and slower storm would have to develop.

Extended Thoughts:

The flipping and flopping of model guidance for the pattern change is certainly flipping more towards cold than warm of late.  Of course, the support for the change in the pattern is not due to models saying yes, but what is going on at the stratosphere as temperatures at 30 MB, 50 MB, and 70 MB remain well above normal.  Even a decrease in temperatures in the next few days would still keep temperatures well above normal at this level and that type of warming will have an impact on the troposphere.  The strongest warming is occurring over the Aleutians and over the Sea of Japan, which strongly would suggest a negative EPO pattern is about to begin in the next two weeks, right about when December begins.  ECMWF forecasts by Thanksgiving suggest this warm anomaly will move towards much of Canada, which should lead to a negative Artic Oscillation for December and interesting weather events for much of the Continental United States.

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