Evening Thoughts- the appetizer before the main course
8:15 PM
This evening, a weak area of low pressure is slowly moving north from the Virginia coastal waters towards the New England coastal waters. Widespread showers have developed over much of the northern Mid Atlantic and will continue to expand northward through the evening.
The upper level low that spawned the coastal low is quickly being forced into the Atlantic by a stronger disturbance diving into the Southern Plains. As a result, this low pressure system this evening is more of an appetizer of what is to come on Thanksgiving night.
The low pressure system will exit the coastal waters of New Jersey by early on Tuesday morning with overcast skies and lingering showers through the morning hours. As the low pressure system departs, high pressure will take hold from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, providing clearing skies and dry conditions.
Model guidance has come into much better agreement for the next coastal storm for Thanksgiving night. A strong upper level disturbance will slowly slide east from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley by Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front and primary low pressure system over the Great Lakes will give way to a developing area of low pressure off the North Carolina coast. As strong PVA is directed towards the southern Mid Atlantic on Thursday afternoon, the coastal low pressure system will become the primary low pressure system and slowly move up the coast towards the New Jersey coastal waters.
I expect a rapidly deepening area of low pressure is move through the New Jersey coastal waters on Thursday night into Friday with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong northeasterly winds. Significant ponding on the roadways, reduced visibility, flash flooding, and coastal flooding will be issue to contend with late on Thursday into Friday.
As the low pressure system moves into New England, cold air will funnel into the coast. The rain showers will mix with snow with some light accumulations possible for the highest elevation (roughly above 1500 feet) around northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and the Hudson Valley. As the storm exits by Friday afternoon, high pressure will take hold through the rest of the weekend with tranquil conditions.
The extended period going towards December 3rd features another possible suggest another storm is possible with the ECMWF taking on a more suppressed and cold solution. I should note that the majority of the cold air should remain over the Great Lakes in this time period, however the storm should be monitored as the storm track would be favorable for some frozen precipitation in the interior. Otherwise, the step down is expected to slowly continue as the winter pattern becomes stabilized and Polar air builds a base into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.
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