NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Be thankful, this storm is staying east

7:57 AM

We should be thankful for many things today, and one of those things is that the upper level disturbance over the Mississippi Valley is not as strong as advertised the past few days.

As we can see with the Water Vapor Satellite picture, plenty of moisture associated with a Sub Tropical Disturbance off the Southeast coast is moving up the Mid Atlantic coast.  The moisture, at all levels of the atmosphere, will provide cloudy conditions for much of the northern Mid Atlantic today.

Because the upper low to the west is slightly weaker than expected, the surface low over the Gulf Stream will be positioned further east by tonight, keeping a large majority of the rain over the Atlantic Ocean rather than the New Jersey coast.  However, precipitation will build into much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas on Friday as the low intensifies over New England.  As a result, scattered showers can be expected by tomorrow morning.  As cold air funnels into the northern Mid Atlantic and temperatures fall at all levels of the atmosphere, snow will mix in at times, but will not lead to any accumulation.

High pressure will take hold by Friday night and lead to clearing skies for Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures will slowly moderate with 40’s for highs throughout the region on Saturday afternoon and lower to mid 50’s throughout the region on Sunday afternoon.  A strong cold front will approach on Monday night leading to increasing clouds and warm temperatures through the day on Monday.

On Tuesday morning, a strong cold front will move through the region with periods of rain, mixing with snow as the cold front exits.  Temperatures will be rather stagnant on Tuesday, remaining in the 30’s and 40’s through the day.  High temperatures will likely occur early in the morning followed by steady or slightly falling temperatures through the day.

High pressure will take hold on Wednesday with scattered clouds as another storm takes shape for the end of next week.  Dry conditions can be expected with near normal temperatures.

Extended Thoughts:

The cold air is on the way, the question is when not if.  A major storm is expected by Thursday night.  The storm track is naturally uncertain, however the majority of the cold air should be west of the Mid Atlantic.  Through the first few days of December, the northern Mid Atlantic will be on the very edge of the cold air mass, placing the region in a battle zone between the warm air mass over the Tropical Atlantic and this building Polar/Arctic air mass over much of the CONUS.  Given the time of the year, the coastal plain likely will receive more rain than anything frozen.  Towards the end of next weekend, I strongly likely the ECMWF depiction as Arctic air slowly bleeds into the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  It would not surprise me if many locations on Sunday struggle to break 40 degrees for a high.

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