NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Morning Model Thoughts

12:24 PM

The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.

Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes.  The basis of these thoughts started with the warming in the stratosphere and how eventually these changes in combination with a negative QBO phase in the atmosphere would impact every aspect of the northern Hemisphere from the MJO waves to the developing El Nino, and finally the pattern for much of North America.  I won’t go into the details, but they can be found here.

This morning, the 12Z guidance has come in with a strong declaration that the cold pattern I’ve been foreseeing is on the way.  This new pattern will take shape in stages and not in one quick change, which is understandable given the current Pacific set up and the state of the MJO progressing into stage 6.

This post will not going into the details of the 12Z GFS/pare GFS guidance, but the fact that these models and the 00Z ECMWF all point to one major pattern shift.  A shift from a positive EPO pattern to a negative EPO pattern.  This shift strongly suggest a ridge is going to build over Alaska and western Canada, and as a result, cold air will be shunted south and east into the United States.  Even more impressive this morning is that all model guidance strongly suggest that a cross polar flow will set up and that means Arctic air.

Now, the initial push of the Polar and Arctic air masses will likely be directed along the Rockies, Plains, and western Great Lakes as the trough axis will be over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The storm around December 5th will bring rain to much of the northern Mid Atlantic, but will also represent another step towards the cold air over the Plains to bleed towards the East.  This will be a slow process.  However, this sets the stage for a more significant storm for the December 8th to 10th period, that’s I’ve been concerned about.  The northern Mid Atlantic will be on the edge of a new Arctic air mass and the thermal gradient will be very strong by this time period.  With a new trough in place and a strong ridge over Alaska and western Canada, plenty of strong disturbances will be diving south from the Polar Branch.  Meanwhile, the MJO data this morning is hinting the Sub Tropical jet stream will become more active by this time period as well.  Fresh cold air, active jet streams, tight thermal gradients: all ingredient for a storm.  The question is not if, but when and I’d mark the period surround December 10th as the when.

You can beat I’ll be chewing on these thoughts as I’m feasting on my turkey!

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