NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Light snow likely with first impulse

9:26 PM

This evening, the movement of high pressure into the Atlantic highlights an environment not favorable for a significant snowfall over the northern Mid Atlantic.  Temperatures, although cold, are still hovering around freezing along the coast.  As the surface high pressure system slides to the east, winds will back to the south leading to a moderation of the boundary layer to above freezing for many locations along the coast.

Although the 12Z and 18Z NAM have trended colder at 850 MB and the surface, boundary layer conditions with this first impulse will likely keep much of the region from experiencing any sort of significant snowfall late tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon.  So while I have little doubt in the development of snowfall throughout the northern Mid Atlantic tomorrow, I think the most likely areas to have accumulation will be away from the coast.

The current forecast from this morning has no changed with snowfall totals.  The highest accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with an isolated 4th inch in some locations is expected to occur from northeastern Pennsylvania through northern New Jersey, the southern Hudson Valley, and off towards Connecticut and New England.  The immediate coast will have a trace to a dusting of snow, which will mix with rain at times.  As the heaviest precipitation moves through on Thursday afternoon, temperatures will be rising into the mid 30’s along the coast, suggesting a high water content in the snowfall and a snow that will likely have difficulty accumulating.

This snow map is for the forecast up until Thursday midnight and does not include any potential impacts from the second disturbance will may or may not impact the region on Friday afternoon through Saturday.

As for current trends, there is little doubt that this first impulse does not lack moisture.  The latest water vapor satellite image shows a strong mid level jet streak racing from the Gulf of Mexico as moisture races northward towards the Mid Atlantic.  The heaviest precipitation and best lifting dynamics are expected to remain south of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  However, the development of this first disturbance will be a key indicator on what to expect for the second storm in terms of timing, phasing potential, and impact.  The second Sub Tropical disturbance is already entering the southern Plains.

What are my thoughts for this second storm?  Now, that sounds like a new premium post to me!

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