9:47 PM

As of last night, the majority of model guidance started to take a decided jump towards a solution where much of the East coast with the exception of northern New England will miss out on what could have been an impressive snowfall.  So what are the models seeing and does the solution thus far handle the disturbances over North America?

The key to the forecast, as I’ve been stating for the past few days, is the timing of the Polar and Sub Tropical disturbances by Thursday night.  The overall theme in the model guidance is that the second Sub Tropical disturbance is going to move too fast to the east for the Polar disturbance to catch the Sub Tropical disturbance and produce a negatively tilted shot wave.  Instead, the Sub Tropical disturbance races into the Atlantic where an area of low pressure develops over the eastern edge of the Gulf Stream.  The storm therefore forms too far east to have a significant impact on the northern Mid Atlantic and even southern New England.  As the phase finally starts to take hold between the Polar and Sub Tropical disturbances, the surface low is pulled back west to eventually impact Maine.

Thus far, the timing of the Polar and Sub Tropical disturbances are in line with model guidance.  However, I am keeping an eye on the strength and speed of the first Sub Tropical disturbance as this disturbance may lead to a slight slowing of the second disturbance over the Southern Plains.  IF that should happen, then a drastic change in the forecast will be needed.  However, at this time I don’t think that is likely.

The going forecast continues to be that the brunt of this storm will remain well to the north and east.  A period of snow showers or even light snow will be possible on Friday afternoon and evening as temperatures crash, however no significant accumulation is expected at this time.  As the upper low intensifies on Friday evening through the weekend, strong disturbances will rotate through the northern Mid Atlantic to produce scattered snow showers.  Meanwhile, temperatures will remain well below normal with highs struggling to break 30 for this weekend and through the start of next week.

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