7:34 AM

A weakening yet still energetic disturbance in the Sub Tropical jet stream this morning is producing light to moderate snowfall over much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this morning.

This disturbance is moving slightly faster than forecasted, but still on track to produce some minor accumulations.  The rain/snow line is currently over southeastern New Jersey through southern Delaware and will continue to slow move north and west through the morning hours.  As temperatures warm to above freezing later this morning, the snow will mix with and change over to rain briefly before ending in the early afternoon hours.  Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and Connecticut.  Locations along the coast can receive up to 2 inches of snow before precipitation starts to change over.  A moderate band of snow over the Philadelphia metropolitan area will lead to many locations reaching the 2 inches that is expected.

This disturbance will exit quickly as there is a lot more energy approaching the Mid Atlantic this morning that will force this disturbance east.  The water vapor satellite image this morning tells the tale as the second and strong Sub Tropical disturbance is now moving through the Southern Plains.  Meanwhile, a strong Polar disturbance is diving through the northern Plains.

If the timing of these two disturbances was just right, the potential interaction would have produced a significant winter storm.  Instead, the Sub Tropical disturbance is clearly moving ahead of the Polar disturbance, which will allow the Sub Tropical disturbance to exit off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight before being captured by the Polar disturbance.  As the second Sub Tropical disturbance exits tonight, a second round of light rain and snow changing over to snow will develop around Mid Night with an additional accumulation up to 2 inches possible throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.

On Friday morning, the Polar disturbance will begin to finally phase with the Sub Tropical disturbance leading to a bombing out low pressure system over the Atlantic.  The result will lead to scattered cloud cover, a few snow showers, and temperatures falling into the 30′s through the day.  By Saturday, the cold air mass will be in place with temperatures in the 20′s to around 30 degrees for a high.  Not pretty at all!

Through the rest of next week, a strong negative NAO pattern will dominate much of the eastern two thirds of the nation with very cold and relatively dry conditions over the next several days.  When I say cold, I mean highs at the coast (like Wild Wood) not breaking 35 degrees through next weekend.  Most locations will hover right around 30 degrees or below through next week while lows will fall into the single digits and teens in many locations.  Cold times are ahead, but I don’t foresee any major storms until this negative NAO relaxes.  More on that in the premium post!

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