NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

That cold air is knocking on the door!

9:40 AM

The low pressure system well to the east of Long Island this morning is going to be the trigger for a very cold and latter, a very active pattern for much of the eastern United States.

Currently, this low pressure system had the potential to produce very heavy snowfall for much of the northern Mid Atlantic and all of New England, however the upper level disturbances that will ignite the bombing out of this low pressure system phase too late and the low pressure has developed too far to the east.  For the most part, much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area will have overcast skies, a risk of a few passing isolated rain/snow showers, and temperatures averaging near normal.

By this evening, the low pressure system will be pulled back over the Gulf Stream and start to rapidly deepen.  A new low pressure system will take shape as well.  The point is that the disturbances will phase just off the coast, a surface low pressure will rapidly bomb out and start to move to the northwest towards northern New England.  The impacts on the forecast area will be greatly felt in terms of wind and temperatures.  Winds will increase from the northwest to 10 to 20 mph by tomorrow morning and 15 to 30 mph by the afternoon along with strong gusts over 40 mph.  The temperatures by tomorrow afternoon will be struggling in the 20’s and 30’s, which will lead to wind chills in the single digits and teens.  Get use to this as the cold conditions are not going anywhere!

Windy and cold conditions will continue on through the week as the northern Mid Atlantic will be in between the strong low pressure system over Maine, which will be producing blizzard conditions, and the Arctic high pressure over the Plains.  As a result, a strong northwesterly flow from the surface to 850 MB will be in place ensuring a cold and windy week.  Disturbances will rotate around the strong upper low, which will bring a threat for scattered snow showers each day.  It should be noted that the high temperatures through this period will struggle in the 20’s for highs in many locations, which will cause snow ratios to end up rather high.  Any snow shower that does pace through can drop a few inches of snow due to the high snow ratios that may surprise many.  These types of pattern can allow a weak mid level disturbance to play major havoc on rush hour conditions, so be on guard through the week.

By the end of the week, the negative NAO will relax a bit, which will allow the Sub Tropical jet stream to interact with the cold air once again.  When the negative NAO relaxes from a period of very strong intensification, the pattern is usually favorable for a winter storm.  There is strong agreement for just such a storm by the end of the week.  Given the cold air in place, the development of a Gulf Low or a Miller A storm track, and the blocking nature of the north Atlantic upper level pattern, there is a significant threat for a heavy snowfall for much of the region by the end of the week.

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