NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

12Z NAM Thoughts

9:55 AM

The 12Z NAM is out and to the left is the QPF output for the storm based on this run.  Now I know many of you in northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and even New York City are screaming right now in frustration.  Is the NAM forecasting a miss for these areas?  Well,not exactly.

What the NAM is showing here are two concerns that I addressed with this storm in this morning’s post.  The first being the development of the 700 MB upper low.  On this run, the 700 MB upper low is slightly and I mean SLIGHTLY further west than in other model guidance.  As a result, the dry slot for this storm drives right up the New Jersey coast and cuts right through Long Island, then slides due east as the 700 MB lifting features slide east towards the new coastal low.  This is a valid and significantly possible outcome, but not something that is written in stone.

The other concern is the development of convective banding of snowfall.  Let me be blunt, someone is going to miss out on this storm compared to their surrounding neighbors.  That location can easily be northeastern Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, or any other location throughout the forecast area.  What the NAM shows is that impact of such intense banding on the snowfall forecast.  Again, this feature will have to be nailed down in the hours up to and even through the development of this storm.  However, the NAM illustrates perfectly the type of resulting snowfall gradient that can develop with this storm.

So for now, I’m not changing the going forecast as a slight shift of the 700 MB features from this run puts the entire region in a QPF zone of over 2 inches.  The best position I would take is prepare for a significant impact and go from there.

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