NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

00Z Models Preliminary Thoughts

11:05 PM

The 00Z guidance confirmed my suspicion that the 12Z guidance was not handling the development of the 700 MB upper low correctly.

At this time,this storm is clearly going to have a major  impact on the entire northern Mid Atlantic.  While I likely will have to adjust some features on the snowfall map to the left, the overall idea that is presented here to the left.  I do think that the best areas for potentially one to two feet of snow will range from Philadelphia through central and northeastern New Jersey, through New York City, and into southern Connecticut.

Portions of northeastern Pennsylvania will likely remain closer to 10 to 12 inches rather than two feet based on the development of the 700 MB low on the guidance.

I will have more information tomorrow morning along with an updated snowfall map to illustrate the areas of best mesoscale dynamics and other factors.

Tags: guidance, information tomorrow, map, mesoscale dynamics, Mid Atlantic, models, New York City, northeastern Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, snowfall, southern connecticut, suspicion, tomorrow morning, two feet