Minor snow threat for mid week, but warmer conditions are on the way!

6:45 AM

The water vapor this morning shows that one major storm is finally exiting and another is on the way over the southern Plains.

The winter storm over New England is the result of the lingering upper low from late weeks winter storm that interacted with another Sub Tropical disturbance over the Atlantic.  This low pressure system continues to intensify and will produce some periods of gusty winds along the immediate coast and at times over the New York City and Philadelphia metro.  Otherwise, any lingering impact, like snow showers over eastern Long Island, will quickly exit into the Atlantic with a generally pleasant day for much of the northern Mid Atlantic.

The storm over the southern Plains appears menacing, and if the 500 MB pattern observed over the past 30 days was remaining in place, would have lead to a major winter storm.  However, a Pacific disturbance racing towards the Northwest coast by Tuesday morning will force the 500 MB pattern to shift to the east, forcing the trough axis that has been over the central Gulf Cost through the Tennessee Valley towards the immediate coast line.  The result of this trough axis shift to the east will force the storm track of this low pressure system well to the south and east of the region.

On Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, a strengthening coastal low will move east-northeast, roughly 250 miles southeast of the New Jersey coast.  The precipitation shield will be expansive far enough to the northwest to push snow showers as far west as the Delaware River Valley, the southern Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut.  However, boundary layer temperatures, especially along the coast will be marginal at best for snowfall accumulation with only minor snowfall totals expected.  Mostly locations will have a trace to 2 inches of snow and possibly as much as 4 inches on the grass and other cold surfaces along the immediate New Jersey coast.  As the storm exits, the snow will likely mix with some rain, and by the afternoon temperatures above freezing will allow for a rapid melt of any snow that did fall.

High pressure positioned over the Tennessee Valley from Wednesday night through Sunday will provide dry conditions, scattered clouds, and moderating temperatures in the 40′s for most locations.  By Sunday there is event the potential for some locations to break into the lower 50′s, likely found over the immediate Delaware River Valley.  Any snow that is on the ground by Wednesday morning, including from the previous storms, will likely be a distant muddy memory.

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