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Clear for now until the weekend

High pressure moves down from Canada. Low pressure moves past the martimes. New System heading into the plains. Strong Coastal Low affects the Northeast Thursday will be clear and cold thanks to the Canadien high. Winds were gusting to 35mph on Wednesday and I expect 20-25mph for Thursday. they will subside as the day progresses and in fact the gusts should be further apart from eachother. Max Temps will struggle past 30s and stay in the 20s for northern PA and NYC northerward. Wind chill readings 20s . Thursday night clouds move in ahead of the next system to affect the area. Low goes towards great lakes and a piece of energy gets broken off down south which will head towards North Carolina. Chilly night in store with temps dipping into the 20s. Dry Friday, High pressure retreats into New England. Light Rain moves into the mid atlantic for mid morning hours. Temps should struggle to get past the 30s with the rain. Should stay dry north of NJ but the key ingrediant is taking shape for this weekend. Friday night Light rain continues for the Mid Atlantic while system exits North Carolina. This time frame is key for places like New England. the High pressure by now is not supplying fresh cold air so it will have to be placed perfectly and strong enough to provide the cold air to the surface to provide snow north of NYC. Temps will stay in the 30s from Long Island, central NJ southwards. Saturday,  All eyes will be glued to the weather maps and updates. Max temps will be in the 40s for Baltimore/Philly metro areas and in the 30s for NYC metro. Original Low pressure that went into the great lakes will break apart and eventually get ensconced into the main coastal low. The low pressure system will move up the coast on Saturday. Heavy rains for NC, Virginia and Del Marva area while temps surge into the 50s in some local spots. One key factoring I’m not seeing at this point is the Mid level low catching up to the surface low which essentially would bring in fresh cold air into the system. So we’ll have to watch how far the 850mb temps warm northward. Light snow breaks out for Hudson valley northward. hpcSaturday night, the peak. Temps will stay below freezing in PA, N&W of NYC and entire Connecticut. Storm strengthens to sub 1000mb low. Rain continues for NJ, Long Island, NYC and Westchester County NY. Immediate Coastal CT should be rain as well. North of I-84 such as northern CT, Putnam county and northward snow will start to fall and get heavy at times. snow rates will reach 2″ per hour in spots. Winds will pick up as well. The placement of the low will determine the rain/snow line for NY,CT, RI, MA. It will be warm ocean air vs cold interior air which is also a concern for creating some good forcing. Widespread 12″+ very likely. Sunday, The rain will be done for Mid Atlantic by Sunday morning expect scattered snow showers througout the day. Meanwhile plows will be in full force and people in southern New england will be bunckered down. I expect over half foot of snow to fall from CT northeasteastward. Track is key as usual and we wont know where the deformation bands setup but there is a ton of moisture with this system. 1.20″ to 1.75″ liquid. Which means at all snow would be 14-18″. Areas in  southern NH, MA and RI need to watch this closely. If I can get my computer situation fixed I will post my snow forecast map on my intern page. Enjoy the rest of the week.

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