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can you please tell me what the weather is going to be like the week of july 26th in pt. pleasant nj. because my family is going on vacation
Happy Birthday!
Thanks!
steve, quick question. After the sun-monday storm, the possible tuesday side swipe that the gfs has been illustrating, would that have a better chance of bringing some snow to the area, if it throws precip back?
.6 inches here now, with sporadic flurries, waiting to see what happens in central pa. My location is drexel hill, pa
hey steve, i know your focused on this potential, speaking longer term, what do you think of the end of the gfs run. Do you think that trough is transient or just gonna sit their. Because that is a hell of a lot of cold air.
the 18z nam looked dcey at the start but by 84 hrs its snowing just north and west of philly, the city its self is in a sleet storm. Also still a lot of energy left down in the gulf that could come up later on
steve great write up, i love it. The only thing im worried about is the cold air, I don’t think this storm is going inland, but a amore favorable storm track. The problem is the cold air. Not one of the 6z ensembles of the gfs support its track, they all have good tracks, but the only problem is they move the high pressure out of the area quickly. It’s funny, so one mentioned this on eastern, that we all wanted this thing to close off and slow down,to let the cold air come in, well it did that, and it got warmer haha, who knows. Anyways good write up, hope to hear continuous updates throughout the week from you.
hey steve i hope your feeling better. Anyways, what are your thoughts on this pattern in the future. I know we are going to warm up next week. But the week after that has me interested. The gfs continues to show to more of a degree especially the 6z gfs that a lot of high pressures will be strung out across canada, and storms attacking them. Only problem is no blocking, so their is always the chance of the highs moving out. But you can see on the longer range of the 6z that things do get interesting.
Hi Steve,
Just a suggestion. Today Dec 11, for instance you have several updates to the forecast. Needless to say the latest one is on top, but still I think it would be useful if you could add a time stamp to each update.
Consider it added! Thanks for the suggestion!
rain and sleet here in wayne pa, temp 37
Still sticking to earlier map? Cloudy in Poughkeepsie, and i thinks its time for Stage One for Friday and Sunday.
Hi Kyle!
Yep, I’m sticking to the map from this morning. Forecast pretty much going to plain. The snow is starting to lift towards you as I type and you are more than cold enough for snow.
Friday certainly looks promising, and Sunday even more so!
hey steve, we had about .25-.5 inch of snow sleet here in drexel hill so far. Right now we are getting freezing rain when precip is light. When its heavier we get sleet and snow. Temp down to 31.2 dp 29.4
The changes in precipitation is directly related to the intensity of the lifting. When strong mid level forcing is moving through, the column of air is lifted and cooled, thus the snow/sleet.
The actual low pressure is still to the south and west with precipitation continuing through the night!
what im interested in steve is that precip back over dc area, heavy stuff. If we can keep are temps below frz for that, we could get pretty icey here. Also looking at the computer model guidance none of them had me going below frz here 10 miles west of philly
Steve…..i dont know if you knew but areas in Eastern PA(mostly Northeastern) and NW NJ ( where i am) didn’t start precipitating until about 45 min- an hour ago…will that affect your snow map at all? ….Anyways, just signed up here, great site! Currently 30 F with HEAVY SNOW!
:):):)
Exactly! The model guidance is having a hard time with the low level cold air. Something we should also keep in mind with the storms on Friday and Sunday!
Hi!
Thanks for joining! The start of the snowfall is just on time! The precipitation had to wet bulb the atmosphere to allow for precipitation. This shows just how cold/dry the air mass really is. More snow is on the way!
Good stuff steve thanks for replying…now i’m off to enjoy my snow :p
Hi Steve
Hello everyone! It 25F here in kunkletown pa,and snowing. Flakes are small,but very steady! I have interesting story, I was in East Brunswick at 1PM today and it started frozen ppn and then huge flakes came down,with visibility of like 400 yards. I drove onto I-95 and it was fantastic with almost blizzard condition! When I got 23 miles north it stopped along I-287. Until now. Well thanks for all the info Steve, I shall enjoy the night!
temps starting to rise now here in drexel hill 31.4, dew point has come up as well to 30,stil frz rain and a little sleet
hey steve, i dont know what happend but are temp now is dropping again, down to the low for the day 31.0/dp 29.5. heavy precip comming in from the west
time: 8:33
location: drexel hill, pa
I know exactly what’s happening. Read the post below about lifting air and falling temperatures. The lifting is causing your temperatures to fall.
It’s 29 degrees with light/moderate snow right now in Wilkes-Barre.
Steve, any concerns about that dryslot building in Central PA and pushing east?
Nope, no concerns. The dry slot is the direct result of sinking air to the north of the rapidly rising air over Maryland as the low pressure lifts north. The dry slot will move towards the forecast area, but not before the heavier precipitation moves through. Still on track for the forecast.
Temps holding steady at 29F in Martins Creek, PA (7 mi. N of Easton PA) 1.8″ snow thus far. Still snowing, light to moderate. Looking forward to your update on Friday and Sunday event.
temp has crept up to 31.6 now here in drexel hill with lgt-mod frz rain we got some ice accrue going on but with temps so marginal its not doing that much icing. Also noticed winds shifted to a more easterly component to at times southerly, which brought the temp from 31 to 31.6
We’re at 28.4 degrees with 3/4″ snow so far in Wilkes-Barre.
Up in Plainfield, NJ, we are currently sleeting but just a few minutes ago it was mostly snow. Close to 2″ on the ground
hey steve, good morning. Just wanted to say at my work in wayne pa on a ridge, elev 500 ft we had about .2-.25 ice accreal, several branches down across the golf course i work out, temperature holding at 32.4
Impressive ice totals. Be careful driving up there! The temperatures will rise above freezing this afternoon so some of that ice will melt for your drive home.
Would you agree that Catskills and Berkshires could even see in the 10-18″ range?
Thanks Steve. It is a pleasure reading your analysis.
Those type of snowfall ranges would have to depend on mesoscale forcing. Is it possible? Maybe. I wouldn’t bet on 18 inches though.
steve what do you think of the 0z run. To me it doesn’t make sense the low is further north but its colder. While all the previous runs were further south and warmer for philly
I’m not sure if you are talking about the surface low or the 850 MB low. Both are within the margin of error between the 12Z this morning and the 00Z tonight for the NAM. The colder look on the guidance is because the model is coming into a better range of forecasting the lower level and mid level cold air. So far I like what I see, but there is a lot of time for the forecast to change in either direction. With the continued theme of the high to the north though, I like the colder idea better for PHL on north and east than the warmer. This is still just rain for basically anyone south of Monmouth County, New Jersey and Philadelphia. The gradient between those that get blasted with heavy snow and those that just see rain is going to be incredibly tight. That aspect of the storm is becoming clear. The question is where does that set up.
yea i was talking about the 850 temps and surface. The surface temps on the 0z nam are like 3 or so degrees colder then the 18z nam, with the low tracking further north. This is gonna be a fun storm, im gonna see a huge difference from my work and my house which is only 10 miles, and 300 ft higher
Yes you will as will many other people.
One bit of advice for everyone. I find that sometimes the graphics on the NCEP sites can be slightly misleading so I try to look at the model forecast soundings from Plymouth.edu weather site. I’ll be diving through the soundings. For now, no change in thinking. Like I said, this is going to be one tough storm to forecast for.
quick question or two steve.Could we see dynamic cooling in this storm, like for instance the soundings for phl at 42 hrs is all below frz except around 750 and 800mb if we get heavy bursts could that cool the column for snow down at the airport and anywhere north of their. Secondly, what is with all the lingering precip after the storm, inverted trough? it throws like another.15-.2 of snow after the storm
1. Yes, it’s possible but in this situation the lifting would have to be very strong for the immediate Philadelphia metro. However, for places like Trenton, interior central New Jersey, and locations north of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania; this type of lifting would have a major impact on the storm.
2. The model is trying to handle the lingering moisture in the atmosphere. That light QPF is likely going to be a few isolated snow showers in the CAA or just some stratus.
Hey Steve. Thanks again for your thoughts. When do you think the storm begins? NAM seems slower than GFS, somewhere around daybreak or a bit earlier?
With isentropic lifting events, the start time of snow can be tricky. I think precipitation will show up on the radar around day break, but I expect some virga to start for most locations with precipitation starting lightly by after 7 AM. Virga by the way is when precipitation falls from the clouds but evaporates before reaching the ground.
Hey Steve. Concerned about the warmth of the 12z GFS at all? Really brings that 850 line in NNJ at hr 36.
I know this might be a silly question. But how is where the low is now in real time, compared to say the model runs of 6 or 12 hours ago? Is it further S, N or right on target? I would think that matters when tracking storms, but never really hear anyone talk about that.
hey steve, cloud cover is really putting a damper on the temperature. We were down to 35 now we are up to 37 with the increase cloud cover
hey steve, temps is 34 here with a dew pt of 31 here in wayne, pa elevation 500 ft with lgt rain beginning
Are you in Wayne County?
no im in chester county about a mile or so south of king of prussia on a ridge top
Lol this is gonna start filling up in about an hour….currently 27 F and cloudy, …just feels like it wants to snow
Really coming down here in Union county, hovering right at 32 and snowflakes are fairly big and wet, but still sticking to everything
2.0 in. all snow 7 miles N of Easton (Northampton County), temp 30F
Sleet and 30 degrees here in Denville, NJ at 3 pm. Before the sleet started we had a solid 3 inches.
4.9″ total
(4″ snow; .9″ snow/sleet/frz rain)
some light frz rain currently, just about done here at 5PM
Just got back in from shoveling a 2nd time and measured in 3 different areas and came up with an average just shy of 6 inches in Denville, NJ. There was a period of sleet which compacted the snow and as I type I can hear the ping of sleet again.
6.1 in lake hopatcong, nj
6.3 here in allamuchy nj…still getting some light wintry mix of SN,ZR, and IP
hey steve, i’ve been hearing some talk of some ocean effect snow or low level moisture comming into the area over night into saturday. The gfs puts out over a tenth of qpf as snow. What are your thoughts?
A few isolated snow showers, but nothing significant. Some flurries, that’s about it.
We had about 9 to 10 inches total here in kresgevile, monroe county pa.
Nice! A good verification. Good to here. Here’s a hint for later, you can expect more on the way this weekend!
hey steve, im not sure if this means much in terms of snow, but im already down to 25 degrees under cliudy skies. The forecast low is for 28 in drexel hill pa 10 miles west of center city philly.
down to 24 here in drexel hill, about 3 degrees colder then the forecast low. Where is the precip going to come from, cause i don’t see anything heading this way really
The precipitation will come from the Atlantic. The idea is that the coastal low which is starting to form off the NC coast will begin to advect moisture in from the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the precipitation over the southern Mid Atlantic now will slowly move north as the low over the Kentucky Valley moves into the Ohio Valley.
The influence of the 850 MB eastern wind is already being seen along the NJ coast, and where I am right now, via the ocean effect snow showers. Take that and expand the precipitation and that’s what this storm will develop into.
Pretty cool Steve, I’ve got light snow with a coating on the ground here in lake hopatcong (near sparta, NJ). Way to go Atlantic Ocean! And it’s frigid too, 16.9 degrees at the moment. Here’s to hoping NAM QPF totals for tomorrow are correct, though the soundings are still borderline.
Yep, you know what though, the NAM also seemed to have initialized too warm at the surface. Something to consider when looking at those soundings under steady precipitation.
alright, thanks for the information steve i appreciate it
Hey Steve,
I’m over in Middletown. This Ocean Effect is definetely coming down nicely…we aren’t sticking on the roads over here yet.
GFS sure was an ugly sign…it amazing how much the GFS and the NAM were off in 6 hours!?!…
Definitely think we are going to be in for a HUGE surprise tomorrow as of right now… even Norfolk still has NE winds coming at it, and the low is almost there already.
1 AM observations are going to tell me a lot of what is going to happen with this storm. If we are colder at that point that guidance, I am putting up alerts on the site and via the phone text messages.
Right now, I am becoming even more impressed with what I am seeing in the satellite data with this storm.
I am still shocked that I am at 27 with NE wind at 3MPH.
What is going to be even more shocking is tomorrow morning when people wake up in the and see 2-5″ on the ground from this area north..when every station and NWS is calling for 1-3 and rain.
People are not going to be pleased, one bit.
The truth of the matter, from a meteorologists point of view, is that the model guidance has been horrible, period. The guidance has been bad in the long range, medium range, and now what looks like the short range. With all that working against a forecaster, it’s difficult to make an accurate forecast. However, a good forecaster knows when it’s time to change while a not so good one will ignore everything in front of him and then never admit he did anything wrong.
By the way, 1.25″ of snow on the ground in Freehold. Considering upping totals along the coast to 3 to 6 inches but waiting for 1 AM observations.
hey steve radar is starting to get going out by manchester md, heading this way debating on weather i should stay up till it snows or not. Not sure when im gonna see the white stuff next so i may just do that. Currently the temp continues to fall 24.4 low for the day, dew pt 20.8, if we get precip in here we should fall to about 23-22 degrees
also, i just checked the obs from wunderground from the personal weather stations in the cape may-lewes del area and their all at or below frz with a biting nne-ne wind
my observation is… 30.5 °F
Light Snow Mist
Windchill: 24 °F
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 8.3 mphfrom the ENE
Wind Gust: 12.7 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Steady)
Visibility: 1.5 miles
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 700 ft
Overcast 1300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Awful. Sleeting here. Lake Hopatcong
Palmer Township,PA 18045 Sleet 23 degrees.
hey steve 29.9 here in drexel hill, we had a about a trace of snow and or sleet, we have about .2 of ice accreal on trees
1.3 total now, looks to be winding down. mostly snow accumulation, but there was plenty of sleet to start and a bit at the end.
In dublin bucks co , we have 1/4″ of ice on the trees the temp. is 29 . Will the wind cause problems.
Actually, yes. I think there will be some power issues over parts of eastern Pennsylvania and southwestern New Jersey this afternoon through tonight as winds increase. Use caution traveling tonight, even over the coast as the wet roads will freeze and develop black ice.
Hi Steve,
In this post you mention a IType Greenland block. Is that “eye’ or “one” nevertheless a cursory web search does not delineate different types of Greenland blocking patterns.
Please esplain.
Thanks,
Bob
wow, nice 12z GFS, almost an inch of liquid friday afternoon and evening and cold enough for snow the entire event! would be great if that came true (for north/central NJ and even down to philly)
steve is it still possible to get like 1-3 inches from the system on friday. Granted its not suppose to be the powerhouse once portrayed but do we still have the shot at some accumulations?
The way the atmosphere is turning out, this is going to be an all or nothing scenario. At this rate, if I see a similar portrail on the GFS, I am going to cancel the Alert 2 status and likely expect dry conditions on Friday.
Steve,
Tough break with the Friday system…I know you’ve pretty much been banking/talking up this system for a week now..I gotta say though, excellent call so far out in advance however, the set up and system was there until about 24 hours ago, so really impressive job.
My question for you is do you think that the low tomorrow morning actually might dive a tad bit further south then model have indicated?..I ask this only because we’ve seen some clippers come through already this year, and each time the clippers have been about 25-45 miles further south then originally progged. Also, do you believe that the bombing will occur pretty much as the Low hits the coast? or do you believe that it will need too head out a little bit more towards the E End of LI before the bomb occurs?
Thanks for the comments. That’s the breaks with meteorology. Everything can look good up until the last minute, and then everything falls apart.
As for this clipper, I think we will see a slight nudge south, but nothing significant. I like where I stand with the snowfall forecast, which I posted this morning and will repost again with the next update.
I think the low will begin to intensify as it comes in contact with the Atlantic, however, the best dynamics will be found from the Hudson Valley through Connecituct, and over eastern Long Island. Therefore, I like where I stand with the 2 to 4 inch snowfall, especially for locations like White Plains.
Steve
Keep up the great work! Always a pleasure to read your posts.
Thanks!
Paul C
http://www.chescoweather.com
Hazleton PA
Temps are 28 dews are at 16 .. light flurries..
hey steve, here in drexel hill, pa its 32.0 dew pt 24 we had some sleet earleir now frz rain, noticed a glaze on my azalea leaves
now down to 31.2 dew pt 26 with lgt frz rain. Interesting to not that nws took out the wwa for philly and delco. Granted it may warm up when the main slug of precip comes in but we are below frz right now
down to 30.4 dew pt 27.8 here in drexel hill pa
temps around 29 here and falling…dewpoint is 23 …currently getting some light freezing rain…roads are a sheet of ice right now
sorry should’ve specified the location…Here in Allamuchy, NJ, still getting lots of freezing rain, about .15 of accretion so far. Temp 27.5 and still falling
Wow, now that’s impressive! Are the trees starting to bend down from the ice? The heaviest precipitation is on the way. Your temperatures are falling because the CAD is still in place which is bringing dry air into your air. As a result, evaporational cooling is continuing.
hey steve, holding at 31.1 dew pt 29.6, winds are veering from the ne-ene
I can’t really tell steve…not enough light, but i can tell you one thing, the rain is freezing on EVERYTHING….i live on a back road which is now a sheet of ice. My parents should have a fun time coming home from the opera tonight as well….none the less temps continue to drop, 27.3 F
Steve, just took a flashlight outside to see how the trees in my yard are holding up. Sure enough, many of the smaller tree branches are beginning to sag. I’m becoming very worried about some of them falling overnight. Not to mention the fact that some of them were severely damaged or fell from that early 8 ” snowstorm we had in November here….
Hmm, there are going to be some power issues I think for interior New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Tempertures continue to drop…down to 27.0 with a Dewpoint of 25. Light ZR continues with the heavier stuff just to my south. Gonna be a long night here. Steve, when do you expect my area to get above freezing?
That’s a great question. Originally I was think late tonight into early Wednesday morning, like around 1 AM. Now I think I’d push that back to 2 to 4 AM at this rate.
Heck, I’m still waiting for temperatures in interior central New Jersey to get above freezing.
Lake Hopatcong, NJ – Morris County(bordering Sparta in Sussex Co)
25 degrees with a dewpoint of 22. was really hoping to avoid major ice, but wow, seems like even part of morris county are in for a long night.
hey steve 30.9 down from 31.2 with a dew pt of 29.4 in drexel hill, pa. Temp has gone down a little in the past hr. You can start to here the trees creeking with the winds from the ne
9:30 obs: 7 mi. north of Easton, 29.1F currently lt.frz. rain, non-treated surfaces glazed over. I am in view of rt. 611, very few cars on road and speed is definitely reduced!
temp is still dropping here in drexel hill, pa went from 30.9 to 30.7 dew pt went from 29.7 to 29.2 frz rain continuing
Steve….temps still hovering around 26-27, The heavier stuff is moving in now…This is definitely setting up to be a very dangerous situation…
sleet is now mixing with the Zr…just measured the accretion off my Dad’s truck…its about .2! impressive…
Hoboken NJ:
33 degrees , 26 degrees dewpoint with wind out of the east at 3 mph: 10:20 pm: Light Drizzle.
still 30.7 with mdt frz rain, that stuff just to are west looks mean and is gonna cause some quick accreal, i wouldnt be surprised if temps warm a little during it do to how heavy it is possibly bringing down the warm air a loft
Steve,
Here in Hoboken with a wind out of the east, we should start to warm up. No?
Yep, it should. Surprised it hasn’t happened already, but I’d give Hoboken and surrounding areas the all clear from here on out. Just to the west of you though, is a different story.
Crud, must’ve posted in the wrong headline.
Anyhow, here in Wilkes-Barre, it is 30.2 degrees with sleet. Don’t think we’ll see much freezing rain before the changeover to rain.
In the Wyoming Valley, freezing rain is very rare. It’s either sleet or rain if it’s not snow.
Steve,
I know in your recent posts that you have said that C,N,and WNJ are looking towards a very icy solution.
I just wanted to inform you that even over here right now, in Middletown, I just took at step out my door and fell on my old fat behind. My entire front steps are frozen over and certain portions of my sidewalk are ice, but not all of them.
Just wanting to let you know that even too the coast, this is a freezing rain event currently.
-Rob
Temps are at 32.2 – Hazleton, PA
moderate precip – mainly plain rain I would imagine some of it is probably freezing.
.50-.65″ of ice so far. We got about 1″ of snow/sleet
Very good post Steve. I have been interested in Meteorology for a long time and I enjoy your technical discussions. One thing I have noticed is in looking at the op GFS out to 384 hrs the last few days it has tended to want to break down the ridge in the west toward the end of the month. Could this be in response to the La Nina conditions cranking up? The exception to this is the 6z run which really shows a good pattern for the east at 384hrs.
i know the gfs has some model support now, but im not sold on this yet. Until i see the ecmwf gung ho then im going to continue to question this, we have been burned so many times this year so far into thinking snow events, but dr no has continuously brought us back to reality
Reasonable, that’s why I am holding off on the snowfall maps and describe what can go wrong. However, when the SREF starts straying away from the ECMWF under 84 hours, I start to take notice.
Latest EMC SREF, 09Z, actually shows a tiny dot (10% chance color) directly over NYC for 8″+ of snow in 24hrs. ending early Sun. AM. I almost missed it.
Steve,
I’m sure Adam and Joe have said this too you already, but thank you so much for helping out tonight on the show. Your logic and insight really helps out and “calm” things down. Personally, i appreciate you answering my question. Definitely understand and follow your line of thinking, especially concerning the surface low…
Good luck too you tomorrow, and on behalf of all of us “weather weenies” over at Tri-State thanks again, and will be looking forward to your thoughts tomorrow night.
-Rob
Disastrous day. 18.5 degrees here in Lk Hopatcong and awaiting my sleet. Radar shows virga so far, nothing reaching the ground.
Think about what you just said, 18.5 degrees with virga so far. When it does start snowing it will stick fast, just like here in Freehold, New Jersey
20 degrees in Hazleton PA with Light snow falling..
Received about .5″ so far. Sticking fast to roadways.
Steve, do you still think we are in like for 5-8″ of snow today??
Being conservative here, but lean towards the 5. That heavy precipitation racing through central PA sure has caught my eyes though. The break over southern PA is going to be brief and limited as lifting increases.
Observing this storm from Reading…
We have snow showers/flurries and a temp of 25.
observing from blairstown, nj – 2 miles north I80 (Exit 12)
light snowfall, covering concrete patio and walkways. clouds look to be lowering and getting darker. roadways have a dusting over them.
temp: 23 degrees
I’m in southern new jersey, williamstown. Currently, its cloudy, temp 30.0, humidity 64%, dewpoint 19.5. Do you think I’ll see any SNOW today??
steve do yo u think temperatures are going to hold below freezing when that precip gets here? My temp has really moved at 28, but my dew pt is only 22, with a wind from the ne
Where is here? If you are not in southern New Jersey then yes.
lol sorry, im 10 miles west of philly in drexel hill
lol No problem. I’m shooting for about 4 inches for you guys. The snow is expanding fast and heading right for you.
Expect your temperature to hold, but eventually you should see mixing of sleet later this afternoon than freezing rain/rain. The snow though will have fallen at a nice clip before that though.
so you do think we will go over to rain then?
I just joined this site. i like your quick updates. Somebody who takes this serious than some others out there.
Nice Job
If you are SW of PHL then yes, W or NW more likely freezin rain if anything. What’s tricky here is the speed of the precipitation moving compared to the speed inch the surface temperatures are warming.
No snow falling currently in Hazleton..
20 degrees with approx. 1″ of accum already
do you know of any map that shows wet bulb temperatures currently?
Try rap.ucar.edu
They might have something.
What do you see for delaware county.
hey mtto im in delco also what town are you located in? Im in drexel hill. Anyways here is to steve or anyone who wants to check out my live webcam for obs, im 10 miles west of center city, hopefully it works and doesnt ask for a password
http://drexelhill.viewnetcam.com:5000
29.4, rose about .7 in the last hr or so, dew pt 22. The precip looks like its comming, im just concerned about my temperatures, granted they will fall some once precip starts. Here is my live camera for those who want to check live obs out of the philly area, im about 10-12 miles west of center city philly, in drexel hill pa. Let me know if you can see it, thanks
looks like that heavier area of now in SE PA is moving more to the northeast now and will miss most of central NJ.
hey steve,
Your latest update is saying that the forecast remains the same for all except south jersey. Im in the nw philly burbs, about 20miles nw of city. So what should I expect, we have a coating from earlier, it did start to snow a little while ago, but now has basically stopped again. what are you thinking for here?
30.0 dew pt 22, waiting for the precip out by lancaster
seems as though the precip just hits a wall once it gets to lancaster and weakens
Steve,
Currently in Hoboken, the temp is 29 degrees with flurries. The Dewpoint is 18 degrees so we are still dry and getting some virga. Wind is calm.
Steve is working on an update, Im pretty sure he is going to lower snowfall predictions substanially.
Your breaks i wouldn’t even consider breaks. you make quick responses and for that i thank you.
Now I can handle 2 – 5 inches for philly metro. Do you see a mix coming up into the central montgomery county? or primarily snow here. thanks
Steve,
I just took a look at the 3hr Pressure Changes currently out off of Plymouth State. IMO, the Low actually looks further south then even what 12z guidance showed. Was wondering on your opinion?
Also, Do you think that WAA will even have MORE trouble now getting into area’s north of say Central Monmouth if that is the case? That could raise totals North of say Long Branch by an 1″+ for all of NYC, Northern NJ, etc?
steve is more precip suppose to be developing? Pittsburgh is already done with the precip, this looks like 5 hrs of precip and done
Here 30 miles NW of Philadelphia we had 0.25″ this morning with just a few flakes falling now and then. Will see what form the precipitation takes as the heavier bands move in later. I hope Steve is right.
Paul C
http://www.chescoweather.com
Told ya it is fast moving, which is why I have trouble believing rain for NYC at 1 AM period. Anyway, I agree with your observation, this is a fast, heavy blast of precipitation, not a slow mover.
Interesting observation, let me take a better look at it.
Steve
Just ran a Wxsim module report and it is not looking very promising for your area of 2 to 5″ in NW Chester County Pa
This run now shows a pretty quick transition to IP and ZR with only about an additional 0.5″…so maybe 1″ of snow total with the AM amount followed by ZR/IP with temps barely getting above freezing by 12:30am. Interesting to note the program has Friday temps hovering under 4 degrees F all day here in NW Chester County. If we can get a little snowcover it could be well below zero at night!
hey paul, doesnt the wxsim run off the nam ngm and gfs models thouhgh which have it alot warmer? Btw i just purchased it also.
they got a mix of snow and sleet per middletown airport. ANyways temp here in drexel hill 31.6 dew pt 23 waiting for the precip
hopefully that area of precip in SE PA will make it to philly and central NJ, so far it seems like its hitting a brick wall
well he lowered his totals slightly, but still not nearly enought, he has me in the purple here in lansdale, which is 4-5 perhaps up to 8. No way, have a coating right now, and not doing a thing, My call is less then 2inches here, I hope im wrong, but I doubt we see more then an inch or 2 if that.
For whoever else doesn’t see it either, i would agree. i mean how long is it going to take it for this stinkin snow to reach the ground. still not a flake here in Montco..
Maybe an inch to 2 before sleet and or fr rain
Steve,
You mention using the Penn-State E-Wall site. Specifically where on the site are you getting the 850 mb temp line at?
Thanks in advance,
Todd
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SFCNE/sfcloop.html
There you go!
2:45 obs: 1.2″ snow
Martins Creek, PA Northampton County
Lat: N 40 ° 46 ‘ 58 ” ( 40.783 ° )
Lon: W 75 ° 10 ‘ 57 ” ( -75.183 ° )
Elevation (ft): 246
Hazleton PA temps at 20
Moderate snowfall with approx 2.5″ of accums
It looks like there is a large plume of moderate/hvy snowfall coming this way, steve – do you think the divergence will weaken the intensity of the snowfall?
EXCELLENT QUESTION! I think there will be some weakening, but not dramatically so. There is going to be a battle between the low level divergence and the mid level convergence. There will be some weakening, but the magnitude of the mid level forcing will override the mesoscale divergence.
As Steve predicted temps here 30 mi NW of PHL are slowly dropping with the onset of precipitation.
Currently Light snow
Temp 27.8
RH 85%
Winds NE – 5 mph
Barom 30.08″ falling
Roads are covered once again
nice band moving in union county now. I just wonder how long it will last as the precip back in PA seems to be weakening. maybe its transitioning to the coast now so initial low is dying out?
hey steve, im not sure what is going but the radars look like poo, im not sure if phl will even get anything
I think Philadelphia and point south are in trouble. I agree. The strong lifting to the north of you is producing strong subsidence over PHL and locations south of Trenton and Monmouth County.
As such, looks like my forecast for PHL south is going to take a huge kick in the nuts. Meanwhile, locations north of PHL and over Monmouth have started to snow at a nice clip. I got a coating on the ground in under 15 minutes here.
Another observation, is that the 850 freezing line has stalled, period, and is beginning to fall. Points north of PHL through Monmouth County and all of the NYC metro will see mostly snow from this I believe.
Steve,
Right now in Hoboken we have light winds out of the East to ESE around 10 mph. Pressure is 30.17 and falling.
I’m not sure what this means for snow but we have had as of now about a half inch of snow.
Instead of looking at the pressures and the 850 line why don’t you look at the radar? This storm is done at 4:30. Every meteorologist blew this storm. What’s new? Well on to the next storm that will let me down. Kutztown PA 2 inches of snow.
well sorry to say this one if offically done, and in the books, total bust. We received a coating here in nw philly burbs. Its done.
Steve…
Just again took a look at UNISYS Pressure Drops…3.72 pressure drop with the Low off the coast..
the new GFS still has .3 to .4 of liquid equiv from 7pm tonight through tomorrow morning in PHL and EWR. is it just completely wrong or will some of that precip over southern PA/MD/DE make it up this far north?
That’s why I am not updating yet. Sometimes it pays to let everything play out before jumping one direction or another. If that low is deepening off the coast, back building and redevelopment of the precipitation should start this evening.
To answer some, the reason why I pay attention to the 850 MB 0C line and the pressure falls, is that if the atmosphere at 850 MB is colder, then we have a new ball game.
The 850 line can be wherever it wants if there is no precip around it doesn’t really matter.
2.4″ snow here in Martins Creek, 25F
Yeah, isn’t it great. I like the hopeful wishes, but seriously, just as this little band of snow is FINALLY getting going in SE Pa., it will be over as quick as it starts. Thats all its been doing. we barely have a quarter inch of the ground. And, it looks like the next stinkin dry slot will be here by 7 and shut it down again.
Looks to be back building and filling in like Steve said. Don’t know what that will me for additional accumulations, but it is better than nothing.
looks like the back building isn’t going to last long for SE Pa, at least from what i can see. maybe done by 9pm???
its hard to say. I remember other storms where precip fills in, weakens and fills in again especially with a coastal low forming
How long do you think snow will last in the philadelphia area
just switched over to a mix of sleet snow frz rain temp 30 dew pt 27 .1 snow accum
if the low is cutting south of PA along the PA/MD border, and then reforming off the coast, why is there no precip in PA until you get to the NE tier? Where is all the precip. and will it fill in when the low strenghtens?
705pm
steve, I have been following you the wholes time, including the radio show last night. Nice call. The backbuilding appears to be underway but why is the dryslot so persistent over middlePA. Is this a setup for more banding for the Lehigh Valley. There were occasional heavy bursts of snow this afternoon but just not what I expected so far. This storm reminds of a clipper which cannot get its act together because the southern moisture flow cannot get into the storm quick enought to what I call “Popping off the radar screen” banding. Also if the coastal is really forming, why cannot I not see the typical throwback of precip building back into NJ and eastern PA rather than from Maryland? Thanks
I’m going to answer both of your questions. By the way, not dudging anyone. I got to eat at some point.
What looks to be happening is the development of this entire clipper is VERY slow while the overall upper level pattern is moving very fast. The coastal low or weakness, which ever one wants to phase it is clearly developing. This can be seen via the moderate to heavy precipitation right along the coast. Also, PVA is transitioning south and east, thus the precipitations over West Virginia, southwestern Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The problem is that the low and upper level dynamics are taking their sweet time developing, thus the sporatic nature of the precipitation. Meanwhile, sinking area behind the heavy precipitation along the New Jersey coast is killing off any type of redeveloping precipitation over eastern Pennsylvania.
The worst part about all of this is that the idea I had about the 850 MB temperatures being colder than the guidance suggested was dead on. QPF amounts were expected to be over 0.25″ to as much as 0.75″. It is clear we are no where near that, thus the lack of snowfall so far.
3.5 inches in Macungie- light snow- hoping for the back building to nail us overnight
I’m going to answer both of your questions. By the way, not dudging anyone. I got to eat at some point.
What looks to be happening is the development of this entire clipper is VERY slow while the overall upper level pattern is moving very fast. The coastal low or weakness, which ever one wants to phase it is clearly developing. This can be seen via the moderate to heavy precipitation right along the coast. Also, PVA is transitioning south and east, thus the precipitations over West Virginia, southwestern Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The problem is that the low and upper level dynamics are taking their sweet time developing, thus the sporatic nature of the precipitation. Meanwhile, sinking area behind the heavy precipitation along the New Jersey coast is killing off any type of redeveloping precipitation over eastern Pennsylvania.
The worst part about all of this is that the idea I had about the 850 MB temperatures being colder than the guidance suggested was dead on. QPF amounts were expected to be over 0.25″ to as much as 0.75″. It is clear we are no where near that, thus the lack of snowfall so far.
Looks to be about 2″ of all snow in piscataway. Snowing lightly. Not sure how much more we will get though, looks just like light snow and flurries now. Like you said, you did a good job with the snow/mix rain line, but overall the precip just wasn’t all there.
2.7″ total in Martins Creek, PA. Some frz.mist happening.
Does that precip over WV make it here, and if it does, will that be a mix/rain?
steve quick question, what do you see for the tuesday arctic front passage and the thursday clipper in terms of snow?
FrankDP23 – I think the precip will be a mix if it does get here. Why you ask, well whatever precip that is falling now in Kutztown, however light, is sleet and freezing rain, with a temp of about 21. Sorry bro, this was a bust for both of us. About 2.75 inches of snow with a nice glaze of ice to come overnight.
20 degrees – Hazleton, PA
4.5″ of snowfall accums total
I am disappointed but that’s been the norm with winter storms the past few years.
So…….. basically it will be a waste of the cold then. what a joke for a winter season this is, again…. bring on spring at this point. i am sick of the talk of the trends, and guidance, and clipperless hopes.
isn’t it great. where we have events that have a low percentage of probably not doing anything like snow for us don’t happen, and events that have promise and are predicted – don’t happen as well. so its a lose/lose situation no matter what
seems to be really falling apart in PA now. NAM is still saying .17″ so maybe we’ll still get some enhancement
Looks like a decent band has formed over my area in Piscataway. I am at work in Peapack now and gettig light to moderate snow right now. I don’t know how long this will last though. Probably about 1/2″ so far. I think we may be hard pressed to get the higher amounts forecast for my home. I think 1-2″ at best, but we’ll see. I think so far for this year I am going to stick with the “what might go wrong with this storm” warnings because they seem to pan out all the time!
I have a inch here in Chatsworth, NJ burlingotn county. This really surprised me. Looks like the ocean helped me this time. And this is my biggest snow this year so far. HAHA
And it is still snowing lightly. But still accumulating
do you think philly can atleast pull an inch or two out of this storm? Just seems like this pattern will not die that areas just to the north keep getting hammered
It’s possible, I don’t want to put out snow accumulation forecasts just yet, but I think Philly will see something, but points north and east will see more.
How is southeasten burlington county looking? From your thinking it sounds pretty good.
Steve you must be racking your brain right now …. or are out on the town!
Pretty tough forecast.
Steve,
I have a question which relates to the rest of the winter season. It looks like the MJO is moving toward a phase 1 position. I am trying to find some temp and precip composites based on this phase. Do you have a link to such information? Also, what are your thoughts about the influence of this forcing on our weather here on the east coast.
Thanks,
Todd
Some blossoming off the Delmarva as you mentioned yesterday?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=akq&loop=yes
steve what do you feel for tuesday storm, the nam jumped west and brings precip into philly as well as the gfs but not as much. The nam prints out .15 per soundings for phl with up to .32 for atlantic city
steve i dont see the pivot in the radar it looks like the precip is just moving ne or ene with just a glance blow
Looks like it may slide off the coast…but still kind of hard to tell
Steve, I just hope the pivot occurs along the delmarva coast and swings the precip back. I agree with your synopsis thus far as the light snow has picked up in intensity in Macungie, PA as evap cooling has taken place. The temp has dropped 3-5 degrees in the last hour. With is release of moisture in the air, can I expect backbuilding and banding of precip along the fall line. I was also hoping that if the precip does not pivot, at least we get banding with the shortwaves as they move up the coast. Your thoughts?
gettign some lgt snow here in drexel hill starting to dust the ground. I agree i just dont see this producing anything big for philly area i think its glancing the coast
Steve NWS has also changed our forecast here to include 1-3 tomorrow night also.
Tonight: Occasional snow before 1am. Low around 23. West wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
M.L.King Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. North wind between 6 and 11 mph.
Monday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind between 8 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Light snow falling in Egg Harbor Township.
33 degrees and pouring down fine snow in Yardley, PA, on the river across from Trenton.
Just got a call from my mother in EHT, snow covering all surfaces now, still snowing.
Steve, here at sayreville, light snow,temp 32,humidity 64% 6:30pm
Snowing lightly here in chatsworth, burlington county. Tomorrow night looks interesting. NWS has 1-3 for me. and accuweather says 1-2 HMMMM
steve whats your take on mondays system?
I think Monday’s system has the potential to produce 1 to 3 maybe 4 inches in an isolated location. The PVA associated with the low pressure system is basically the same as this system, but I think the atmosphere will have a little less moisture to work with. Also, with the other disturbance on its tail (the one that will develop the 3rd coastal low off North Carolina on Tuesday afternoon) that will force any low pressure system that develops to move quickly. If there was blocking or no kicker, there could have been more snow.
at this point steve 1-3 sounds wonderful
Some light snow and a coating in Piscataway
Light snow just started here in Folsom, Atlantic County.
Steve,
With this banding obviously occurring, do you foresee any accumulation totals changing? or are you going to keep totals in between a coating to 2″?
I’m going to stay put with 2″ maybe pushing 3″ in some locations. Looks like Long Island is in for a snowy night, but on the light side. Coastal low is starting to get organized nicely, but looks to be too little too late for anyone west of central New Jersey.
I am going to issue an update about the end of this little storm and the clipper for tomorrow evening, I just want to see some observations after 10 PM.
steve do you think the storm will trend south on the gfs? It looks like it is jumping on the northern stream system in the later week and bulding that up pretty big which would flood us with non frozen precip. Does the euro show the storm, it looked like the 0z run had nothing. The euro has just been as inconsistent as the gfs one day it give mid atl a storm the next minute its totally surpressed and the newest run has nothing of anything.
also what map do you have to show the epo? I have one from cdc and it shows the epo going positive by the end of this week
Thus my point that model guidance doesn’t have a handle on the disturbances in this new pattern change. However, if the cold press seen on guidance is real and the upper low over southeastern Canada develops, then the storm track is further south. I don’t think guidance will have a handle on next weekend until Wednesday, maybe Thursday morning.
I actually look at the 500 MB pattern and the text book make up. Like the problems with the determination of the NAO from the CDC, there seems to be a disconnect between the way they determine the indices and the actual 500 MB pattern. So since the 500 MB pattern is more important to the forecast, I go by those guidance lines. Don’t get me wrong, the CDC is great, but I think there needs to be some research in the disconnect of those charts and the actual pattern for the EPO, AO, and NAO teleconnections.
I’d have to guess most locations north of a line from Trenton to Staten Island got at least 2″ out of this moderate batch of snow thats been falling most of the afternoon. Its been pretty heavy here in central NJ and sticking to everything since about 2:30pm
Steve,
The PDII STORM!?!?
You’re getting us snow weenies hopes up with that type of statement, lol.
steve, do you buy the whole cut off low scenario?
I think it is a some what reasonable idea, but I think this upper low will end up slightly further west and slightly weaker.
i think if that low cuts off and sits their, whenever it comes out its going to are north. The confluence will be lifting out with no real cold air supply. The only hope is kind of what the 18z gfs was hinting at is if we can get that clipper to come in before that storm to give fresh cold airmass, but thats a long ways off
Steve, the old weathermans tale, the cold stale air out with fresh new air on Sunday- winter storm within two days. I do not why, but it seems to work itself out everytime. Go with your hunch and watch the snow and overunning show itself on the models on Saturday evening. KU storm- maybe but lets see if we are both right
So is this our January Thaw ?
Hardly seems right.
All that precip in Kansas now heading out to sea south of us?
The actual precipitation over the southern Plains is not expected to impact the forecast area. Never was. The point here is that there is a great deal of moisture from the West and emerging from the Gulf of Mexico that will interact with this cold air mass.
steve i got a question. The sunday night into monday night event do you think the models are handling that right because basically all of them have the precip but the precip just gets eaten up by the mtns comming in from the west? Do you think it will make it in here?
I think the precipitation will redevelop as the disturbance approaches the coast. But I don’t expect significant development, thus the idea of a dusting for most and 2 inches as an isolated potential.
BTW, sorry for the slow typing. Sprained wrist from a bench pressing contest, but got the 380 LBs up to win!
hahaah damn thats pretty impressive. Do you buy the ggem and euro solution of the cutters? It certaintly is plausible if its holding back all the enrgy for that storm
steve im still feeling this as a good dump of like 3-6 inches for overunning then when that promary comes out we go to a rainstorm
i hope your right steve the gfs/ecmwf/ggem are starting to turn heads. But we shall see after tonights runs and tomorrows
treasure island casino poker rum…
modules postal!companionship acidities prank apocryphal …
Any Comments on the latest models trending North
Steve,
Quick question in regards to how you deal with location. What do you determine to mean Extreme Southern NJ?…just Cape May County?…or the counties of say Cape May, Cumberland, Southern Atlantic(or all of Atlantic) and Southern Ocean?
Just interested as I am around Atlantic City for this week.
Monmouth County looks like it’s sitting pretty for home.
ugg the north trend has started, nothing looks good right now
stsve please help me out here, but how the heck can a 1010mb low go right through confluence and an established high pressure
Working on an update now. Was away on personal matter. I’ve seen some of the guidance and am working on the update. I read some of the emails I got. Honestly the bulk of this storm for Philadelphia on north is frozen and mostly snow. Will update soon.
steve im in somerset county ( north plainfield ) hows it look for me ? need to prepare if the game is on. prepare for work as i plow this time of year. thanks again sorry for the questions.
Good to hear Steve
I have been looking at the models all day but I know not
to go by one model run. Hope the personal matter is resolved….I love snow and would love some in Bucks County PA
Hey Steve,
Looking at the recent models, seems as though the north trend, which has occurred all winter, is winning out again. With high pressure moving East into Maine as a good deal of the precip moves into the region, doesn’t seem as though the atmosphere can support an all-snow event for parts south of NYC. Do you think this becomes a rain event for Philly metro, or does it stay frozen? I guess it’s up to the low-level cold air and how it holds up against the inevitable warming.
How confident are you in the snow for just north of Philly?
Confident of snow for everyone, the question is not if but how much before the change over to a mix of snow, sleet, and rain for points south of PHL, and snow,sleet, freezing rain for points north.
I’m keeping an eye on how the precipitation develops over the southern Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow. That development is going to tell me a lot on how to handle the initial WAA snows.
Sorry for sooooo Many questions
But What are we looking for as far as start times on Tuesday?? Have heard everything from 9am to 5pm!!
steve what i dont get is how does a 1010mb low displace such a cold environment like we have with a pretty good storm track?
I think RIGHT NOW, light snow starting from SW to NE around 8 to 9 AM, then heavier through the afternoon and evening hours.
I can see the mid levels, but that’s why I am not so confident at the lower levels, thus my comments on the low level cold air and the mixing of snow/ice.
The only reason I ask is b/c I work in the upper part of Bucks County and live in Central Bucks. The snow last Monday got us off guard……I am also kind of the weather guru in my office
Thanks
steve after the 0z nam and 21z sref come out could u just tell us what you think of the run, be it in here or in the main discussion area, thanks
I can tell you right now…gut instincts say something is up the 00z NAM…PVA is in the Lakes, yet precip is down in Tenn? 9 times out of 10, In all the set up’s i’ve seen PVA follows precip
This would lead me to believe two things:
a. It’s a lake cutter
b. Coastal Redevelopment
which the NAM does NOT show. So i find this run funny..
thanks for the update steve i really appreciate it. Im still not sure the 0z nam is handling the storm correctly do to the fact it has 3 waves of precip while most models have just one huge area
I’m not really buying the models at this time. I have a feeling we’re either going to get nailed, or we’re going to get nada. No middle ground with this system. Going with trends, I’m tempted to say we definitely see a full-blown mix come Wednesday, possibly heavy on the sleet side of things. If the overrunning event under-performs, then I think we’re looking at a mainly liquid event around PHL metro. That’s just how I see it.
How quickly this went from supressed, to snow, no to mix…soon we will get rain, it is heading that way fast.
ya know steve i think this winter is worse then last year. Atleast last year it was warm and we knew it was just going to be rain. But this year with how cold its been and we still havent measled anything out in the snowfall department is really sickning
Yeah, the best way to describe this winter, especially for the PHL metro, is one huge tease.
I do have some comfort that the NWS and HPC is similar. Just noticed the WSW. haha
2-4 darn
woo hoo I’m in the “violent” area so 4 to 8 inches for me
. but I see how close that line is to where it ends up as a lot of sleet. reminds of the 2 storms back in ‘07 where it just didn’t want to snow. warm air aloft kept coming in and bringing mostly sleet to the area. I hope it doesn’t happen as early this time
Hey Steve. NAM and Euro have trended way north and way warmer. Can you explain perhaps why you think they are wrong? They have mixing issues all the into NYNJ border
No high in SE Canada or just to our north = no snow. That’s just how it is. Once that high retreats, in the famous words of Ollie Williams: It’s gon rain!
Steve
Thanks for the Update…..When does this all Start
And there is the main question! The brunt of the storm will be Tuesday evening say around 7 PM on through 12 PM Wednesday. However, as I look at the radar echoes expand through Pennsylvania and another round building over the mid Mississippi Valley, I am concerned that some steady light to moderate snow is going to sneak into the forecast area well ahead of this main storm.
I’m going to be pretty interested to see how the 00Z guidance performs as the 18Z GFS did trend cold. I don’t forecast with the 18Z GFS guidance, but I like to use it as a trend signal, especially when models are all over the place.
So the 18z shows a colder more snow solution….Isn’t the 18z the least reliable or is that long range
As far as long range yes. However, it is a good model fun for signaling trends between the 12Z and 00Z guidance within the period we are in, which is all that I’m using it for.
steve if the gfs and ukmet are onto something i think just n and w of the major cities are going to have a significant ice storm. If the euro,ggem,nam sre right we get some snow then we get the shorts out with the rain gear. The models have done a piss poor job this year with low level cold air, they always tend to rush it out quicker then usual. Every storm this year had a longer then expected icing event then progged, and i think this storm will carry that theme. I know your into storm mode, but just look at gfs ens and euro feb is looking very interesting with the return of a good -nao, we just need some storms.
Steve, I don’t see my area getting 6-10″. The trend is north and warmer. I’d go with the 4-8″ and some ice.
I completely agree and I tried to illustrate that in the forecast with up to 0.50″ of ice in the forecast for that area.
Yep, I saw the late medium range forecast. So much for a warm February, huh? The pattern would be cold and potentially stormy, but let’s deal with one storm at a time.
Okay, well if the mid range of yours verifies, so would mine.
steve what are the chances that we get a heavy front end dump, then go to ice, then when we warm up, esp in the upper atmp that we get dry slotted and dont get the plain rain?
There is certainly a chance of that happening. Like I said, I do not like this set up one bit and I am seeing way too much wobbling in the model guidance. The trend to colder on the 18Z GFS has me a bit concerned. The fast the SREF is staying on the cold side overall has be concerned. The fact precipitation is already breaking out (not weakening as one TV Met in NY was saying) over Pennsylvania has my attention not to mention the heavy precipitation racing towards the Ohio Valley as I type.
Something is up here, and I would not be surprised if there’s a bust towards the colder unfolding. I’m not confident of that.
By the way, I took off from the “other” job for tomorrow so expect updates through this evening and through Tuesday via comments or actual posts.
sweet steve! Quick question, what is your site like during summer, sdo you post like the observation posts up for severe weather and heavy rains or in the summer? Also, i have heard that the 21z sref is based off of the 18z nam and doesn have the new 0z guidance. That doesnt get injested until 3z i gues sis the next one
The 21Z SREF uses guidance from the 18Z NAM and I believe the 18Z GFS, but it is better to use the 03Z SREF overall between the two.
In the summer, my site is basically similar to what I do now. It will be even better with my new Iphone cause I can update severe weather information much quicker than before when it comes to thunderstorms. Also, I do coverage on heat waves and tropical weather.
hmm, thats pretty interesting. Looking forward to hearing your updates
steve looks like the 0z nam went colder and im hearing the 21z sref is colder. Also looks like the nam is bringing in majority of precip as frzn then dry slots us when it warms it looks like
really? the nam to me looks like its all snow til sometime wednesday morning then it goes over to rain and like an inch of rain through wednesday night with temps just above freezing
it does give phl rain but atleast half the storm is frozen. Just look at the tren 18z nam had surface tmeps in phl getting to 36-37 now its 34 with a bigger front end dump. Its going to be interesting to see the gfs. Also the rgem has come in colder also. The warming a loft is not going to be denied but the colder surface temps will prevail and cause some big ice concerns
I tend to agree. I think it goes above freezing at the surface too along the coast and big cities but not til at least noon wednesday
yea and majority of the storm is over by then or we get dry slotted
It’s 23.7. I’m really concerned because our forecast low is 13 and skies are overcast.
Will that have a serious implication on the storm?
Check out your dew point and the moisture that will produce evaporational cooling in the coming hours.
My current DP is 11.
what is going on with this euro? the surface low is up west of albany while the GFS is 300 miles south. just crazy
lgt snow currently falling here in drexel hill.New snow accum so far is .3 with a temp of 25
steve how good are the nmm and the arw models around this time frame? Reason i ask is because they bring in a lot heavier snow then both the nam and the gfs to the area
EXCELLENT PICK UP!
Yes, I’ve been studying them all morning. The HI RES NMM and ARW models usually do an excellent job with low level cold air, which is why I’m a bit concerned. I’m studying the performance of these models against real observations, which is why I’ve been so quiet.
I am also looking at the MM5 Guidance as well.
if you look at the sim radar on them to, when the warm air comes in it dry slots the whole area, saving us from that much rain, then we get the front that comes through, then its over
Hey Steve!
Down in Pomona, NJ(5-10 miles West of Atlantic City)
Currently light to moderate snow falling..covering cars,road, sidewalks, and grass..
I’m hoping your Wildwood/Cape May also won’t include Atlantic City. I have a feeling ACY North is in for a major ice event tonight, it is incredibly cold out.
gfs and nam look ugly, they even got warmer deff trended to the euro
i did notice that on the nam it dry slots us. It then pounds us though with the cold front.Do you really see icing as a problem? It looks like we get the thump of snow then its a quick transition from ice to rain
Hi Steve
There was some grumblings on another site about the prospects of the supression going on here and a coastal forming off of Virginia and taking over. Do you see this happening at all?
Thanks
Ken
I really don’t see the support of this at 500 MB nor in any of the jet streaks. A weak wave could develop and help support a slightly colder boundary layer to the west and northwest of this hypothetical low, but this development would not become a primary low until possibly Wednesday evening.
steve i could see us going under a flod watch also. With the snow on the ground from this storm, then the heavy rain and temps in the mid 40s possibly on top of frozen ground
It’s possible, especially over the immediate coast. I’m about to issue a big update to discuss the frontogenical lifting aspect through Wednesday morning and how tomorrow morning will work out overall.
I just finished the maps and will start typing the update now.
Now that is one extensive break down that i’ve haven’t seen in sometime…. you still liking the accumulation breakdown from yesterday Steve.
thanks
ken
Yes, this mesoscale forecast is taking those accumulation totals and add 2″ of snow or up to 0.10″ of ice if you are impacted by these bands.
steve whats your thoughts on somerset county ( north plainfield ) noaa has me under a warning for 3-6 with icing tommorow. do you agree ?
I like my 4 to 8 inches of snow followed by ice, but this is kind of splitting hairs.
Thats a great timeline and breakdown and is extremely helpful! very much appreciated
27.6, DP 9
Well Steve, your 6-10″ here will bust. Looks like we will change to sleet/freezing rain and even plain rain here tomorrow.
Well, I was wondering if we can wait for the storm to actually, you know, happen, before declaring a bust. lol I mean you do know there was an update issued last evening that hasn’t changed. And where I have 6 to 10 inches right now looks to be pretty good.
All the models, local stations here, and NWS indicate my area (Wilkes-Barre, in your 6-10″ mostly snow area) say we change to plain rain. I don’t know what you’re seeing that will keep plain rain out of this area.
Umm, my friend, the NWS basically agrees with my forecast for 6 to 10 inches of snow. See:
Wilkes Barre PA
Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Calm wind becoming east between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday: Snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 1pm, then freezing rain and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. South wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
They have a little more mixing, but certainly no mention of rain. Note: 3 to 5 + 3 to 5= 6-10
Take a look at BGM’s Area Forecast Discussion. That’s what I’m trying to point to.
I don’t know exactly what you want me to say or do, I would disagree with an idea of snow accumulations below 6 inches in this location. I basically went over why I forecasted what I forecasted, so no point going over it. Then I showed you the NWS forecast that stated just the opposite of what suggested. So I’m not sure how to react then just shrugging and saying Okay.
All I’m asking you is what can keep us from changing to plain rain, besides what my forecast says.
If you made a post already about it here, point me to it. That’s all.
I don’t believe the precipitation is going to change over to plain rain, especially through the heaviest precipitation because the cold air will get trapped in the low levels and will not be forced out as easily as models have it. The NMM, ARW, MM5 guidance shows this nicely at 850 and 950 MB. Frankly, they said maybe, as a caveat, and didn’t even include it in the actual forecast, which tells me it’s not an idea with a lot of support.
Like I pointed out, their new forecast is no different then what I have forecasted, with the exception of more mixing at the end, which would keep your area closer to 6 inches.
OK, that was what I was looking for. Thank you Steve. I’ll let you know how it works out.
Steve,
are you able to see where the sleet/snow line’s progress is at this point? Just curious from one of the site’s that shows it through southern maryland/southern delaware. just curious
thanks
The snow/sleet line is around the MD/DE boarder, that’s about right.
Snow is falling very lightly here in Warrington PA Central Bucks County
light snow here in Norristown, Montgomery County, light dusting on cars so far, temps 29
Steve,
we now have light snow across the Montco/chester/Delaware county area’s all reporting light snow and light dustings or so as of 9pm
Light to moderate snow here in Folsom, right on the Atlantic/Gloucester County line. Steve, NWS put out WSW’s for BWI and DCA now until 12pm, for freezing rain until tomorrow morning, any thoughts on what effect that may have up here?
Light snow is now falling. Temp is 24.9.
Hey steve 2 1/4 inches here in Lake Hopatcong, 20.7 degrees. Any concerns about more ice? I see Mt Holly now calling for up to 1/2 inch
Steve what about backend snow? Looks real impressive on radar.
And i got 2.5 of snow in the pines. Its 31.4 here and sleet/freezing rain
Hazleton, PA – Temps are at 21 Winds are from the East Northeast
We have 4″ of snowfall on the ground
Steve- temps of 30F here 7 mi. North of Easton PA. rec’d 2.9″ snow/sleet. Rain is freezing on surfaces currently. Am concerned about temps rising above freezing, but we shall see.
Pike County PA. 3 inches and the change over is happening.
I think that 6-10 was a little to high. The warm air is killing us.
6-10″? Not even close. Hardly 3″ and it is already 30.7. Looks like we will go to plain rain within the hour.
Northern Monmouth County, about 2.5 inches of snow fell before a quick changeover to plain rain this morning, little to no ice.
Plain rain, that’s interesting. Temperatures were in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s in northern Monmouth County with the exception of around Belmar. My point is that freezing rain was falling and observed by the National Weather Service, which is why warnings were issued.
It wasn’t the rain that got you but the subsidence from the intense mesoscale band to your south. So, no, you won’t end up with 6 inches. I did bust in that location.
There could have been a period of freezing rain this morning for all I know, before I woke up around 9. At that time, the temp was 37. If there was freezing rain, it would have been for a very short period of time. I could tell by the texture of the snow that there wasn’t much freezing rain.
Not busting on your forecast by the way, it was pretty good. Just sharing obs for reference if it helps with future forecasts.
hey, steve got 2.3 of snow for storm total. .15 ice accreal here in drexel hill, pa temp 32.3 right now
9 AM, wow, that must be nice.
Monmouth County had freezing rain from roughly 6:30 AM until about 8:00 AM or 8:30 AM, depending on your location. Since then, temperatures have been warming into the upper 30’s, supporting melting conditions.
I had 3″ in Piscataway, changed over for good around 7:30. I’m currently in Peapack getting heavy rain that seems to only be freezing on tree’s. The backend stuff does look interesting, but seems to not work out so well here for some reason. I see parts of Louisiana in snow again today.
Now above freezing and have just plain rain.
Just curious, what is your elevation? Because some locations like AVP is around 33, but many lower elevation areas are in the 20’s and even upper 10’s.
I am 600′ ASL.
Wow, okay. I didn’t think the warm air would work in that low. I was thinking more around 800 to 1000 ASL.
yea i think its obvious now that the storm is going to be one big rain maker. I do like the fact though that the nao and ao are showing sign of going negative and strongly negative, we just need the storms
Hey Steve, I just noticed the winds are coming back around from the northeast over central/northern NJ and the temps actually dropped a degree (newark is down to 34). so maybe the warming is done for now?
The brunt of the warming has stopped, however the low pressure system will still have to pass to the east before any significant fall in temperatures can begin. I still see this afternoon as most rain changing over to snow at the very end.
steve, is it possible to get a late phase of track like the ggem had of 980 low in new england? That would be the best outcome, we get a heavy snowstorm and we pop the -nao
i just looked at the 6z gfs ens and more then half of them deepen the storm to 980mb or less storm while still giving us a good track, this is what we would want.
Yes, it’s possible. I’m staying conservative here until I see the 12Z/18Z guidance and then I’ll comment tonight on updated thoughts. When a shift like this in the model guidance happens, that signals that the models are picking up on a significant change in the pattern evolution. So the question is whether the outcome seen on the latest guidance has validity when better data is put into the models. In other words, I want to see what happens when better Pacific data is put into the 12Z guidance.
Hey Steve — Just wanted to take a moment to post a long overdue THANK YOU!!! I really appreciate you sharing your knowledge, experience, and thoughts with us all on this blog. I have learned a great deal from taking the time to read your thinking, approach, and methods. Just wanted to let you know that it is greatly appreciated!!!
Thank You! All I ask is just to keep spreading the word!
steve just curious can this still come back to a coastal hugger or apps runner
Looks like things are going in the wrong direction again for a big hit. What a see-saw this has been.
Any Insights on your thoughts
steve, i dont know if their is a phenomenom for this or what but the preciop seems like its just hitting a wall from richmond-dc-balt-lancaster and nothing can get past that as if their is a ton of dry air. What is going on?
Well, we have two things at play.
1. I do think that this drought over the Mid Atlantic that has been going on for the past 2 years does have an effect on the development of precipitation.
2. The dynamics of the cold front are slowing the progression of the precipitation down as well, however the trend on the radar is for the precipitation to slowly win out. Interesting evening for sure!
steve, the models are still not picking up on the precip over se va and nc. The nam initialization based on the 0hr sim radar shows nothing in that area
Got to love models. lol
steve, not sure if this means much for us up here, but look at those echoes sw of dc by charllotesville their moving nne and intensifying
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=lwx&loop=yes
It does suggest that lifting is increasing over the forecast area and down through Washington D.C., however one of the key indicators that I am watching is to see if the “back end” of the precipitation stops moving west to east. The precipitation shield must begin to stop moving east to show the trend out into the ocean has stopped. Otherwise, the development of precipitation is mute.
blairstown, nj
37 degrees/light and scattered snow flurries/snow sticking to colder surfaces but nothing else/light wind
I was just looking at that back end as well. Seems like it is moving east, but very slowly.
A dusting in Piscataway. Snowing lightly now. I wonder if I’ll reach that 3-6, the radar doesn’t look too great at the moment.
blairstown, nj
27 degrees/light snow/half of an inch on the ground/slight wind from the north north west.
lgt snow here in wayne pa at work, temp 31. Have about .5-.75 on the grounf. That band by dc and balt looks really nice not sure if thats going to increase or what
steve do you think we have the potential for banding. Reason why i ask because their is a really nice band in the dc and balt area
I think it is becoming clear the initial coastal low is tracking closer to the coast than expected. As I discussed in the new post, this situation bares watching. I think there is a potential for heavier snow than expected, but not ready to jump on that yet. Best chance for a steady moderate to heavy snowfall remains to your east.
32.1 degrees in Yardley, PA with steady light snow; accum. 1cm VERY fluffy!
about .5 inches of snow here in allamuchy, Nj. Good start! 29 degrees. Snow is light but stead.
snowing lightly here too and has been since about 1 last night, picked up close to an inch I’d say. My question for Steve or anyone is most of the precip was predicted for this afternoon into this evening. So where should we look for snow breaking out on the radar? It would seem as though the band over NJ now is trending northeastward and will be out of here by noon.
ron12274, I think the inverted trough helps allow the activity in the Ohio Valley to slide in here, and that’s what we’re going to watch for afternoon/evening.
Northern Monmouth County near Sandy Hook
lightly snowing and sticking to all surfaces. A coating to this point.
Damn! Not only is it not sticking, it’s melting! Up to 32.7 in Yardley, PA. Coming down steadily but very fine…afraid to go out and find it mixing with rain…:(
Same thing here Monica. I’m up near Bedminster NJ at work, and it is snowing at a fairly good clip, but it is actually melting away what stuck here this morning. We must be slightly above freezing still. If this was sticking, there probably would have been about an inch up this way since there was about a 1/2″ at 7:15 here.
Steve,
What is your wondering on timing as too when the Low will pass East? Before 5ish? Midnight?
I am starting to get a tad nervous that when the cold air comes in, precip will be gone, atleast here.. I think Monmouth County, NWNJ, NYC, LI still can fare very well, but im starting to think Ocean County South may have some trouble here.
have about an inch up here with mod snow
Northern Ocean, around 4 PM, southern Ocean around 5 PM
Light snow and 33 degrees in South Plainfield
snow has picked up in the last half hour….about 1.5 “
What’s your location?
I’ve lurked here for the past few weeks and found it to be very helpful and informative for those from NJ.
I’m pretty sure you implied you already had offers to host your site, but the wording kind of confused me. Regardless, should you ever have the need, I’d be happy to host you for free on my server.
Keep up the good work, and I plan to make a donation as soon as I can!
Steve,
Quick Question regarding “Pressure falls strongly suggest that this low will continue to intensify and may be an issue going forward in holding the snow over the forecast area”..
Do you mean more snow likely, or meaning a more snow to rain scenario forming for coastal locations.
It absolutely looks beautiful down here right now, but we have nothing in the streets. Grass and trees look pretty and all, but all the kids are getting very upset hoping that our night classes would get cancelled..ah, the sufferings of college kids..
Great Updates though so far!
-Rob
The pressure falls over the Southeast are slightly stronger than expected and may suggest that the second surface low will have more of an impact than earlier expected. The key here is how does the disturbance over the Tennessee Valley interacts with the inverted trough off the coast. This won’t change the snow/rain line progression.
By the way, expect the snow to begin accumulating on the road ways in the next one to two hours as the temperatures continue to slowly fall.
see my post above….i’m in allamuchy, nj…i basically border Morris, warren, and sussex counties…Just went out and measured again and i have exactly 2 ” …snow has picked up again
Nice write-up. I saw a few people say that cnj area’ like Edison, Somerset and New Brunswick are approaching 3″, pretty cool. A non-weather related question: Did you say something last week about benching like 480 pounds? I thought I read something like that? Thanks.
OMG, no. 380 lbs. is what I put up with wrist wraps of course. I can’t even imagine someone putting up 480 lb, but i suppose someone does in the Olympics.
steve, im not sur eif their is any merit to this, but the nmm,arw and the nam have been consistently showing a heavy band developing from phl to pottstown lancaster to out by harrisburgh. Is thier any merit to this happening?
Those models are trying to pick up on the potential lake enhancement from the eastern half of Lake Erie into the bands of snow developing over central Pennsylvania. It’s possible, sure. I wouldn’t bet my 401K on it, but it is possible.
By the way, the banding is intensifying once again over central New Jersey and Long Island. You can tell by the dramatic increase in the DBZ over these regions while the snow is weakening to the west and east of these bands.
very heavy snow band now….up to 2.4 “
Big fluffy flakes FINALLY starting to stick. Yardley, PA, 4:15PM…31.6. Moderate chunky snowfall…so although it’s been snowing all day, I feel like we’re finally “getting started.”
Near Sandy Hook, over 4″ on the ground and still coming down.
hey steve 3.5 so far as of 8 here in drexel hill, pa temp 30
5″ in Piscataway. I was surprised it added up to that. Nice call Steve for this area. You might be one of the few who nailed this one.
Final here in allamuchy at 3.8 ….not the best storm but i’ll take anything i can get
final here is around 3 inches
Hey Steve. I like the video idea, but the audio quality makes it difficult to understand your words. Maybe it is on my end, but I don’t think so.
Yeah, I agree with the audio. I’m working on improving the quality now. Next video should be MUCH better. Trail and error I guess.
steve videos a great idea. i agree with the audio also. hard to follow.
Yes let me just parrot the other comments, this is good idea however the audio was distorted.
Steve,
Great idea to have a video but there was a lot of “distortion” (I’m not an audiophile so I don’t know if that is the right word) — when I set the lowest possible volume so that I could hear you, the end of every sentence or so got real loud and distorted, I couldn’t make out what you were saying. Obviously at a higher volume, everything was distorted. Maybe there are some adjustments you make when you record it next time.
Mike
Hi Steve,
This audio sounds better than the last. But still too much distortion and let me point out that I am NOT a audio connoisseur. Just to be sure the fault did lie here I checked out audio from other sources and everything was fine.
We don’t want to drive you crazy with this, Steven.
Bob
Hey Steve
Any thoughts on the Afternoon GFS Model run with Alot of moisture and cold air on Sunday
Steve, big improvement on the audio.
Thank you for your efforts.
Bob
Steve, Just wondering if you will raise the alert to a Level 4? Thanks for what you do!
Actually, I’m reviewing the data now for strong consideration. I’m a stickler for definitions.
Yeah! Just got the txt!
WOW this storm looks impressive. Got a .5 from little storm now for my foot plus
Got about half an inch to one inch overnight as the appetizer. Also, red on top of a grey background is not pretty on the eyes. Hard to read. Just some feedback for you.
Ok Steve
I have a burning Question b4 this storm hits…..you all use the same models in forecasting. Why are the amounts on local media stations all over the place? Do they just use the models and not the overall pattern? Thanks in advance
Bring on the SNOW
Tim
Well, the best way to explain the differences is that some meteorology staffs like to use different model guidance. Some basically haven’t updated their data yet, as some stations put their forecast on a video loop. Others are just more conservative than others.
I can’t get much more in specifics as I’m not there listening to their reasons. However, those are some of the more likely reasons.
Thanks Steve
Light Snow just started in Atlantic City
a inch here in the pine barrens
Started snowing precisely at 8:00 here in Yardley, PA (Trenton area).
Steve – worried about that huge dryslot in Va? I don’t understand why it just won’t edge on through our area. Weenie question, I know.
1.5 here now
Hey Steve thanks for all you do! Quick question any time frame for thundersnow here in Dover, DE? 1st and last time i experienced was 1/96 storm it was incredible! Was actually sitting in our neighbors hot tub at the time we were besides ourselves. We live in close proximity to DAFB at 1st thought they were firing their jet engines on those big C5;s. Not! Will dryslot affect the possibilities of the thundersnow? I am a newbie but a major weather weanie. Trying to learn all i can. I also realize this is just a chance. Thanks again
The atmospheric environment is favorable for thunder snow, but timing when it is going to happen is very difficult. The current developments of the dry slot weakening produces a favorable environment for thunder snow in two period. From now through the early morning hours of Monday and then early to mid Monday afternoon as the upper level trough lifts north and east through the forecast area.
PHEH!! Yardley/Morrisvile PA…have only 3.75″ as of 7:00AM. Waiting for the 6 more I hoped for to fall out of the sky anytime now!
Temp=22.6
blairstown, nj
windy, moderate snowfall, 4 inches on the ground, low clouds.
10:00AM update
Yardley/Morrisville
4″ on the ground; just resumed snowing after a lull, where the sun almost came out!
temp= 23.5
conditions gusty winds, steady light snow again
rooting for that heavy band to visit us in extreme East PA/Trenton!
Question for Steve- What is that developing in South central Virginia?BTW we have about 3 inches on the ground in Kutztown PA all from today’s event, nothing from the nor easter. Temp is 13 degrees.
Hi Steve thanks for all the great discussion!My question please: What is the deformation sone,and why is it important?
We have 3 plus inches here in southern monroe county,it is 2 degrees F and wind blown snowing. We had nothing ppn last night so this was /is a welcome storm in our neck of the woods!
I don’t know Steve, that band in Eastern PA seems to be diminishing and moving north. There is nothing in between the Eastern PA band and the band over the ocean to the East of the NJ coast. Do you still stand by your 9:55 post or does it appear over for the eastern half of NJ and NYC?
Well, the technical term is pretty complicated, but I try to make this pretty simple. Basically a deformation zone develops due to a divergence (separating) and convergent pattern in the mid and lower level winds. The circulation that develops produces a meso low that supports a slow moving band of very heavy snow. This band of snow can great increase forecasted snowfall totals.
The funny part is areas in central/south Jersey that had little snow up til the early feb event may end up with seasonal totals surpassing parts of north jersey after this event.
Steve – what about that precip in Virginia and Maryland, what’s that all about?
Answered that already in the last post. It’s a disturbance riding on the back end of the storm. Generally light to moderate snow will move through the forecast area with a few isolated bursts of heavy snow. An additional 1 can be expected overall with some isolated amounts to 2 or 3 inches in heavier bands.
Thanks, I didn’t see the update at the bottom
No prob.
got 10.5 inches of snow in the pine barrens chatsworth, NJ
southerly flow south of sandy…hook…northeast surface flow north…..big jump in temperature and dew point same areas…..southerly flow south…..
any ocean influence here to hinder as well as diurnal setting of sun to inhibit threat…..
surface low chesapeake…upper low cold front….fronto forcing
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/loop.php?sector=2&parm=8fnt
In Pomona, NY, we had thunder, lightning, and torrential rain that lead to flash flooding. We also had periods of pea sized hail.
Steve –
Please email me at ross at NYYStadiumInsider dot come. I run http://newstadiuminsider.com and I have an interesting proposal for weather updates regarding this weekend’s baseball games in the tri-state area. I would love to feature a guest post of yours on my blog. Please email me for more details.
Thanks,
Ross
New Stadium Insider
http://newstadiuminsider.com
No wind but some pretty impressive rainfall. Lots of thunder and lightning too. Feels like the middle of summer!
Hey Steve
Playing Golf Tuesday with my Dad..We are playing 9 am in
Lower Bucks County just NE of Philly…..Will I need the Rain Gear…Thanks Can’t wait for Hurricane Season
Tim
I would say you’ll need the rain gear and possibly may have to stay out all together because of severe weather threats.
Not What I wanted to hear but Ok Dookie I will keep an eye out
Thanks Much
Hey Steve
Still A Washout for tomorrow…….Golfing from 9-130
Bucks County PA just NE of Philly
Thanks Tim
You actually have a good shot of playing this morning. Still a threat for showers, but most of the precipitation will be to your east. Cloudy and cool though, bring a light jacket!
Allright Steve
Sat AM Golf outing in NE Philly 8-1 How am I looking
thanks again Tim
BTW Nice forecast Tuesday Rained Holes 1-3 stopped until 16 and stooped again on 18
As of now, Saturday morning looks good. However, the forecast will be determined by mid level disturbances, which tend to speed up or slow down without much notice due to low level jet streams.
Stay tuned for the latest updates!
How Far South will the Thunderstorms reach that are in the middle of PA?
Are these storms moving east or ENE?? What are the odds of them holding together to the Philly Area with the sun going down and when will they arrive??
The individual severe thunderstorms are moving ENE. As the sun sets, the severe aspect of these thunderstorms will decrease while the potential for heavy rains will increase, which will lead to localized small stream and urban flooding.
seems to be holding together pretty good
Hey Steve
Love the weather updates…..I am heading to Dutch Wonderland tomorrow with my Family Should I bring an Umbrella and be prepared for T-Storms. The park opens at 10 AM. Its in Lancaster County
Thanks Much
Tim
Thanks! I think this format is going to be great with winter storms as well. Look for showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon for Lancaster. Won’t be a complete wash out, but strong thunderstorms will be an issue.
Hey Steve
I live in Central Bucks County PA….TStorms training
through the county??
Yes, central Bucks County is in for a VERY wet afternoon as the thunderstorms train along the mesoscale boundary. In short, be prepared for very heavy rain and possibly flash flooding.
And just as I typed that, they’ve issued a Flash Flood Watch for your location!
I noticed that too
Its been raining since 130 here in central bucks………..are they moving south slowly?
Nope, these storms are stationary and not moving until that line over Lehigh County starts pushing south on these storms. You are looking at heavy rain through the afternoon. A break for a few hours and then that second line in the mid to late evening. Could impact the Phillies game.
rotation in s. delaware
Yep, I think those type of storms will stay well south of New Jersey and Pennsylvania though as the atmosphere is no were near as unstable nor the wind shear as impressive.
Seems to be quieting down here in Central Bucks
That trough approaching from the west may intensify the boundary once again. The boundary is weakening as the sun sets due to a weakening thermal gradient.
Looks like the heavy stuff will be south of E. PA….am I wrong
It appears to have intensified again over Morris and Somerset county. I just experienced pea-sized hail in Watchung/North Plainfield
Steve,
Darkest clouds i have seen since the 1998 Labor Day Storm are right over my head right now in Middletown. Looking out West looks even darker…
Radar too me seems to be showing rotation right over Middlesex/Monmouth Border…could be a super-cell forming here.
I see what you mean Rob. That cell really exploded around Staten Island/Perth Amboy area headed toward northern monmouth/sandy hook
THIS IS INTENSE MAN!
NICKEL SIZE HAIL JUST COVERED HWY 35..INSANE.
2″ an hr rates, highest wind gust of 66 recorded.
Great observation Rob! These thunderstorms are exhibiting mesoscale low pressure systems which is enhancing the rainfall and producing large hail. If this was Oklahoma, we’d have multiple tornadoes by now.
Steve,
Looking out over the Shrewsbury River North (i’m right along the back bays of Leonardo) I’ve watched enough of Weather Channel’s Tornado Weeks too see what looked Rotation, and there was Rotation there.
Totally believe that this would be a tornado like cell.
I’ve NEVER seen Hail that big before around here, ever.
Very impressive! If you take a pic and send it, I’ll put it up on the site.
Great job!
I actually took video. Unfortunately, my time ran out before i could get the hail in..and i don’t have a link to my computer to put it on.
Oh, I believe you. The wind shear that is present and the state of the atmosphere clearly supports rotation, however the overall environment is not conducive for wide spread tornadoes.
You should send it to the Weather Channel or News 12. Get on TV.
Haha Good Idea..
Steve,
Your not getting ANY hail out there? I got a report of Hail in Colts Neck
Steve,
What is with the Golden Glow going on outside? Look’s so eerie, yet so beautiful?
I know, pretty cool with the sunset and the mammatus clouds off to the east
[...] rushed outside soon after the intense downpour on Friday night, when the sunset cast an eerie yellow light and the clouds were shaped like scoops [...]
Hey Steve s
Seems to be some weakening in these storms……B/C of the Sun going down??
In SE PA
Hey Steve,
In relation to this developing El Nino and it’s pontential impact on this winter’s pattern; do you think this will be a east based on west based el nino. Correct me if I am wrong but everything I read says that if it’s an east based el nino; than that is the death nail to this winter.
With the Storms running through the Philly Metro Area Now…..Will this Stablize the Atmosphere and break up those storms moving in from Western and Central PA…..And will not be as strong?
Tim
Well the thunderstorms to the west are being driven by the strong disturbance that is driving towards the forecast area. While I think the thunderstorms will weaken, they will still produce a period of heavy rain, occasional lightning, and strong wind gusts late tonight and early on Saturday morning.
Steve, check out the t storms to the west coming up the coast this morning. Once lifting takes place this afternoon plus some sun, alot of flash flood warnings will be out. I am really worried that if a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the next few weeks, with the ground saturated already, we will be in trouble. I hope the ACOE is watching the levels behind the dams, especially on the Delaware.
I completely agree with your concern about flooding. The immediate coast with this storm is going to see a lot of rain, while locations just to the west will have more scattered precipitation. The concern for me is that the showers with the scattered precipitation will be capable of very heavy downpours, which may lead to flash flooding this afternoon. The nature of this air mass should not be ignored. As for tropical systems, well if we get one, I’m investing in a row boat, I’m not kidding. A major rain event like that would be a disaster not only for more rural areas but for the urban areas as well.
Hey Steve
That almost looks like an eye out there off the coast.
Is it close to Tropical storm strength?
Tim
Well, the upper level structure is clearly cold core, ie not tropical. However, I think the lower levels of this low pressure system are taking on tropical characteristics. I would bet we are looking at an emerging hybrid coastal storm this evening. This coastal storm is very much like the type of low pressure systems we would see in the winter. Very interesting to observe.
Hey Steve
It is so weird here in Central Bucks County PA……Its pouring rain and I hear Thunder and the Sun is out. Its very Weird. I know Summer T-Storms can do interesting
things but this takes the cake
This kind of reminds me of stories of where it is sunny out and then someone or some thing is hit with lightning. You must be on the edge of the thunderstorms, which can make for great pictures by the way!
Where exactly is the front….Looks like its in Western PA to me….Whats it look like for the Philly Metro
The cold front is back in western PA and likely will get as far east as east-central Pennsylvania by this evening. The cold front will never make it through the forecast area due to the position of the long wave trough. What is going to ignite the thunderstorms this afternoon will be the strong heating that is destabilizing the atmosphere and the mid level disturbances moving from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic ahead of the cold front. When these thunderstorms start developing, they will rapidly reach severe levels around the Philadelphia metro, thus the new severe thunderstorm watch that was just issued.
Hey Steve
I was looking at the Water Vapor Image….Whats that Swirl
south or Bermuda???
That upper low is embedded within the upper ridge. This upper low is located at roundly 700 MB while the ridge is at 500 MB. The upper low is what is inhibiting tropical development over the Caribbean, but will not have an impact on the forecast area at least at this time.
Hey Steve
Did you see the video of the Tornado in the Poconos….I saw it on FOX 29 this evening. It was amazing. Is the air going to stabilize after Sunset or are we in for Storms until Midnight. Will the TS Watch be extended
Thanks Tim
Hi Tim,
I’m actually about to posts those videos of the tornado in a few minutes!
Went from 84 to 67 in short amount of time in Central Bucks County…..Is there anything west of these Storms developing?
For the most part, the end of the showers and thunderstorms has come with clearing conditions the rest of the evening. I will soon post exactly what happened and what to expect through tomorrow within the hour.
Hey Steve
Glad you made it home ok Interesting Dynamics out
there today
Are there going to me more storms this afternoon? Or does it depend if the Sun comes out to DE-Stabilize the Atmosphere?
I think we will be under the threat of widely scattered thunderstorms through the evening hours even after this line of severe thunderstorms move through. The upper level and mid level disturbances over central Pennsylvania will rotate through the forecast area, although I expect these thunderstorms to be significantly weaker.
Thanks Steve
No problem.
What is the latest in a year the first Tropical Storm has formed?? I know we had one back in June?? that was just a TD
but what is deal?
Hmm, I’m not sure actually but I think the latest was no later than August. At any rate, this tropical season is all about the development of El Nino. I have to admit, I didn’t think El Nino’s influence (the strong upper level troughs) would be this impressive so early, but at this rate I don’t see much in the way of tropical development at least through this weekend. Of course, just because the season is quiet doesn’t mean that a major hurricane can’t develop and cause havoc much like Hurricane Andrew in mid August.
Hey Steve
Looks like we might have a winner for the first time this year….Looks interesting but its days away from doing anything……It can go in many different directions
Stay Cool Steve
That’s true, however I have to admit I was pretty impressed by the structure of this disturbance already. Lots of potential with this one!
Looks very well organized…..wouldn’t be surprised if its already a TS force
Hey Steve
Where were you last nite….Got pretty rough here in Central Bucks….Cloud to Ground Lightning. Heavy wind-swept rain…..Tonites looked to be weakened…..Bill looks impressive out there
Take Care Tim
Hey Steve
What happen to all the convection in Del, Md…..Seems to be weakening
Hi!
The convection fell apart because of a process that I wasn’t counting on. I figured that with Bill weakening that the subsidence would weaken as well and the upper level disturbance would use the left over moisture to dump a good amount of heavy rain. However, the subsidence process (sinking air) remained strong even while Hurricane Bill continued to weaken. Why? Well, I found this morning that a jet streak over Ontario, Canada was positioned in such a way to enhance the sinking air over much of the Mid Atlantic. As a result, the heavy rain was crushed like a tea cup to a sledge hammer.
[...] original post here:Â Tropical Weather Update for Saturday August 29, 2009 Comments (0) Posted by on Saturday, August 29th, [...]
[...] View original post here: Are you prepared for the next storm? [...]
as a concerned fan it is pretty bad at 5 mile point that a four cylinder driver Cody Decker threatened Ken Underwood that if he showed up that he wuold turn him into disability i think that is pretty low of Cody to do that hopefully something will be done about it thank you very much
hey
i was wondering that if this storm was in january would it be snow, like a noreaster???
There would certainly be a good chance for many locations to at the very least start out as snow given the position of the high pressure system and the track of the surface low pressure system. Much would have to depend on the type of air mass in place, however if a similar track did occur in the winter, many would be dealing with frozen precipitation on Thursday night through Saturday morning.
this is a very good sign for winter right???!!!!!
already getting coastals
so this is pretty much a hit now? i heard like 2-3 inches,if only it was febuary!!!! how much wind are you expecting, like an all out noreaster? its looking good for some people to see the first flakes behind the storm,
only 40s for staurday, it will only be a matter of time before we see our 1st flakes here in jersey!!!!
I think the storm will occur, I doubt this storm will be a miss with the way the atmosphere is unfolding. It’s hard to say how strong the winds will be exactly this far out as much depends on whether this storm comes out in two pieces or as one solid storm. At the very least, northeasterly winds will be sustained over 20 mph, can’t say much beyond that.
As for the first flakes? Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if some flakes fly in the highest elevations of Sussex County by Saturday morning.
Certainly in the right direction.
personally what do you think itll be a one low deal or a whole buch? i want the noreaster, a noreaster would bring in more cold air so it speels better for winter right?
one more question
i got an email about montly news letter subsription and i was wondering how much it will cost???
Looking at the latest data now and some Pacific observations. Leaning more towards the ECMWF solution as of now, but there is a lot of uncertainty here when considering the Pacific disturbances. The storm itself will not impact the overall winter pattern.
The Monthly News Letter is free of charge! All I ask is you spread the word about this website! The more visitors and links, the more the website grows and the better content I can provide. So basically this website is just as much yours as it is mine.
yeah i will tell people about it!!! wow its free!!!! i never heard of anything being free lol
i posted a thing on liveweatherblogs.com recomending this site to the east coast and telling them about it!!!, next ill go to accuweather forums and easturn weather forums
wait…. what the heck is going on ,its a possible no go now??? oh man i was really looking forward to this storm and maybe a surprise in the form of snow and sleet like last october ):
Well, it’s a possibility but not any concrete. I wanted to mention this potential given how there is a lack of a 50/50 low in place and the 18Z GFS did hint at it. We’ll learn a lot about this storm with the 00Z runs tonight, which I’ll discuss at length tomorrow morning.
As for snow/sleet with this storm, unless we are talking the highest of elevations, I really don’t see any significant frozen precipitation out of this. Perhaps a flake or two at the highest elevations.
do you think i can get some frozen precip here about 10 miles west of newark, kenilworth nj to be exact because we are not very far from the coast. and i would think theres potential for friday night to see some frozen precip as weel being that its a stronger storm which would bring down more cold air if im correct
so from what im getting is that theres a storm on thursday night and friday morning, then another bigger stronger and slower moving storm thatll bring rain fri night through sunday morning!!! so this means saturday is going to be a washout?
I’ll be covering all of this in a few minutes.
By the way, I don’t really do Local forecasting like down to your town only because in the past I’ve been flooded with requests for that (in the winter) and it’s not fair to do that for one person and not another.
Thanks!
Steven
Hi Steve, I’m down here in N Va outside DC. Should we be expecting the same kind of rainfall totals down here.
Thanks for updates.
Friday night conditions for Philly Metro. Can we get football games played ?
When it comes to football, the more rain the better. At least when I played. Anyway, conditions will be raw and drizzle will hand around, but conditions will be playable in my opinion.
No, I don’t think so. The rain will be heavy, around 1 to 3 inches, but what pushes the rainfall amounts so high for the northern Mid Atlantic will be that inverted trough from Saturday night through Sunday night.
Steve, just let you know that the column has cooled enough to allow snow to mix in macungie,PA in the last 20 minutes. I am sure the south mountin area has it on the ground. great deal of heavy rain between here and norristown. On the radar, the storm appears to building over the delmarva area.
noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!! i dont want it to rain next weekend ): im going to the poconos to my trailer but if its raining we wontbe able to go
Kinda odd, the radar would indicate it should have been raining here in NE NJ the past couple hours and we haven’t gotten a drop, not even any drizzle.
hey streve
is this rain like 100 % going to happen on saturday or could it slow down till like monday or sunday even
and if it does realy have to rain on saturday is it just a chance or is it fefinite for the poconos
because everyone is begging for just one nice weekend!!!!! i want to go camping but it looks like thats not going to happen AGAIN ive been trying to go for the last 3 weeks now and i have to admit this is getting VERY annoying with this weekend rain
Well, I think we are getting into a pattern where the troughs and low pressure systems begin to impact the East coast by the Friday-Monday time periods. In this situation, we are looking at a cold front in still a rather progressive pattern, even for a negatively tilted trough. So for now, the best data available points to Saturday night into Sunday morning being a bit on the wet side. The good news is that much of Saturday morning and afternoon will be dry and pretty warm.
oh its only saturday night!!!!! i thought you meant all day saturday , well if thats the case i can go to the poconos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! now i have a trailer up there and i have to paint it on saturday, so do you think the paint would be dry enough to not wash away when / if it rains?
Not sure, not really a paint expert.
If the paint takes 12 hours to dry, I’d say no go but I have no idea.
lol thanks
last night you told me that it was going to be nice on saturday and not rain untill night time or late afternoon, and now you say all day rain on saturday
im just trying to find out ahead of time if im going to the poconos or not because i dont want to wake up saturday morning to have a nice day when people are saying rain all day cause then ill be really mad, i know mets tend to over do these cold fronts saying its going to be a nasty day and the suns out all day and only a shower or tstorm croosess through tha area at night time, ive had plenty of dissapointments from fronts that people say are gonna be soakers and end up being nothing . a lot of fronts i remeber for the summer was a bust. i just dont want to stay home and have saturday end up being a nice day, i guarentee you there will not be a washout from a proggesive front because obviously its moving fast so maybe a 30 min to 1 hr rainfall ant thats it,now if it was slow moving that would be a different story
Okay, three things.
1. My discussion with you was based on the data I had at that time, which I stated. Forecasting the timing of a cold front passage is pretty difficult more than five days out. I gave you my opinion based on what I had in front of me. The data is changing and there appears to be more influence from a Sub Tropical Disturbance, as a result, I am trending towards the wetter side.
2. No point being angry about the weather, it’s Fall and these storms are only going to be getting more frequent. Your period of nice weekend weather looks to be getting smaller by the day.
3. This isn’t the summer where the pure drive of the precipitation was convective precipitation. Could this front slow down and hold off until Saturday night? Yes. Am I confident of that right now? No.
In the end, it’s really up to you if you want to chance the weekend or not. All I can do is give you the best forecast I can with the data in front of me and the experience I’ve gained over the years.
thank you so much i didnt mean it to be nasty or angry
i hope todays data and models are right confining rain saturday morning lol(: thats of course depending on what time saturday morning!!!! if it stops by 10-11 am that would be perfect!!!!
so if im getting you correctly the cold front may come through in the morning with cooling temps in the afternoon
HERES HOPING FOR THAT HUGE NEGATIVE TILT (: LOL
thanks for your forecast!!!
ps…… i was wondering if theres a way after i post the comment that i can go back and edit it
thanks
nick mcelroy
Well, that’s the idea for now. The dry air advection behind this cold front is become more impressive with each run due to the strong lifting and sinking motion of the atmosphere with the PVA.
Nope, I can only edit them and on most cases I don’t unless there is profanity.
i just meant in case i made a mistake or 2 with wording or whatever
come on dry air lol
thanks
would the timing be early or later like noon or afternoon or like before 11 am?
hey steve
you dont know like the timing right, like what time the front could out of the poconos by. noon or before would be perfect!!! although it could be a wet ride
thanks for your input, by the way i like your site!!
i actually meant what time the rain could be out by.
thanks again
I probably won’t nail down timing like that until Thursday night. Eastern Pennsylvania will get into the dry air advection rather quickly though, so all could be over after 2 or 3 PM.
it sounds to me that its looking better and better for me going away this weekend!!!! as long as the rain can be out of pa by noon-1pm ill be good.
im starting to get my hopes up, is this a bad thing because i dont want to get my hopes all high to be dissapointed in the end
I’ll put it like this. If you are looking for a dry Saturday afternoon, you might end up disappointed. Between the warm front and the cold front, showers are going to be scattered and with cold fronts, timing several days out is still sketchy at best. I would not get your hopes up for a prolonged dry period of weather on Saturday. Sunday looks excellent though.
im not expecting a dry day but im not expeccting a wash out either
i do expect a cloudy day and maybe some showers, at least untill late afternoon.
im not going to get there untill 12 noon or 1 pm on saturday so im not expecting to be stuck in the trailer the whole day
well that sucks!!! oh well i dont care if it does rain all day,im still goin for it. as long as sundays going to be decent!!
i think you know what my questions going to be
with that wall of rain you said therll be a sharp cutoff
will the poconos be in te dry or the wet?
Tornado warning in Hunterdon county!
I took a look at the radar and frankly I was not impressed by the radar signature. If there was any rotation then it was weak and very brief. This line is clearly producing straight line winds that are capable of minor wind damage.
hey
so we have a coastal storm on tuesday night and wednsday and a washout saturday
as of now does it look rainier than this past saturday?
man i was just looking at that storm in the south and saying we are in store for one hell of a soaking!!
imagine if this was febuary!!!
whats your call for the trick or treaters is it a go or no go?
Looks like the trick or treaters that go early to mid afternoon won’t have an issue, but those in the late evening and at night will need some rain gear. I don’t buy the secondary low on the 12Z GFS and leaning on ensemble guidance and the 00Z ECMWF.
Hey Steve… Just had a thought/suggestion/question:
I noticed your winter forecast will be out 11/1. Have any plans to follow it up the same day/following day with a live chat? That would be really cool.
I’m thinking of doing something like that on 11/2 so everyone can read through the whole discussion before coming to the chat.
good cause i want the cold to come back
this pattern has been reloading for wayyy to long now i mean its been 2 weeks,it made a cold october go warm ):
Hey Steve
How late will be watching the World Series Tonight……Or will we be even watching it at all
Tim
it looks like a rainout
rain looks to be only increasing in coverage and intensity
hey, with this possible coastal storm do you think it would rain on saturday? i hope not lol this would make like 6 or 7 rainy saturdays in a row!!!
by the way i like the winter outlook or forecast!!!,is it just an outlook or a forecast?
Well, isn’t one in the same? I guess you can call it a forecast.
hey steve
im very excited right now
noaa.gov has a 50 percent chance of rain/snow for me thursday night!!! is this part of that coastal storm that may occur?!!!!
because i thought that an outllok comes before the official forecast lol
steve,one question
yanks or phillies fan?
Neither.
oh lol
go for the yankees!!!
wait,so down at the bottom when you said significant consequences does that mean this storm is a bad thing? if it is i was wondering how?
if theres high pressure over the lakes that means that this would be a cold storm right, even though its tropical in nature. this would be awesome if it happens!!!!!
it actually looks on the satelite lile moisture is already approaching the us gulf coast!!!
hey steve
it looks to me that the rain aint making it dc lol
it looks like ne jersey is in for a dry day
I’d hold that thought as rain is pushing into Maryland this hour. I think the focus of the rain over the forecast area will be from Monmouth County to Cape May County over the next few days though.
hey steve,
do yu think the rain will reach philly burbs tomorrow?
Yes, I now think so. I think all locations from a line of Middlesex County, NJ through the suburbs of Philadelphia on south will get into the steady light to moderate rainfall. This storm is coming north.
Steve, its Matt..Do you really think the models can be that far off? even the 00z models from this evening?
Actually, I think the new GFS is getting a better handle on this storm. The NAM is lost. Has no precipitation at 1 AM over Delaware, it’s been raining for 2 hours at GED. This is a perfect example why those that simply ignore observations and follow model guidance alone are in trouble this winter. Expect the NAM and GFS to trend wetter for southern/central NJ and the Philadelphia metro through tomorrow.
Looking forward to your update..It appears as though this could come up as far north as the Delmarva..at least looking how the front is draped along the coast on the surface map.
Most rain so far here in Pa is virga..as its not doing anything yet..Will be watching till about 5 Am
5 AM? I might have done the same if this was snow, but for rain. Well, I’ll hit the bed and jump back up at 5 AM. Which is what I’m about to do.
As for the virga. Totally expected. The high pressure did it’s job with importing low level dry air. However, the continued advection of mid and upper level moisture will eventually overwhelm the dry air. If this was winter with temperatures in the 30’s, this would assure below freezing temperatures and snow. Alas, this is only November.
I hope your right about the winter comments Steve.. I have been below normal for snowfall the past 2 years. Could use a good above normal year. The one thing is that I hope we don’t miss storms (here in NE PA) by being to far west..
The 6z NAM & 6 Z GFS have both trended wetter over the next 72 hours. We have had light rain since 5 AM and not a drop called for yet by the NWS…
You know, it is morning’s like this that gives me that nice toasty sun shine in my chest feeling. I’m about to start a new live coverage, but trying to fix the twitter feed to show the latest updates first.
I have to say good work so far. I will be reading it all when i get back up! Always online when i get the kids off to school. Need more then 2 hours of sleep!
Twitter is down right now and has been since right after you stopped posting live updates. It’s not on your end..
nevermind.. I guess twitter isn’t down. I can’t access it from my iPhone though and I am wondering why..
I think I found away around this.
Steve from what I am seeing the ECM also now moves the moisture further north and becomes quite wet for friday and saturday…
You have to find this a bit interesting…
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.11.2009
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.1N
66.5W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
————– ——– ——– ——–
12UTC 11.11.2009 26.1N 66.5W WEAK
00UTC 12.11.2009 28.3N 66.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.11.2009 30.6N 66.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 33.6N 77.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
————– ——– ——– ——–
12UTC 12.11.2009 33.6N 77.0W MODERATE
00UTC 13.11.2009 34.6N 76.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.11.2009 33.6N 76.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.11.2009 33.0N 75.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.11.2009 32.6N 73.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.11.2009 31.6N 71.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.11.2009 31.0N 69.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
Probably a minimal TS now
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…70 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.
steve it really sucks here in nyc metro watching all the excitement to the south
is there any way i can get in some of the action?
theres another ts????!!!!!
isnt an moderate el nino bad for cold ? and isnt it bad for our winter
No two El Nino’s are the same. I was forecasting based on a weakly moderate El Nino, so this is already accounted for in the forecast. Basically, no changes in my forecast as I went with near normal temperatures for the northern Mid Atlantic, however those thinking super cold or historic cold are in for some trouble.
Hybrid storm. This is not a pure warm core low pressure system.
Wait until Friday night or take one care down RT 9 to ACY for some stormy conditions and excellent black jack!
Very interesting indeed. I will address this tonight.
steve this storm is pissing me off now!!!! it rains all day than it goes south!!!! im getting tired of getting hyped up for nothing and im getting tired of these suppresed systems too,im giving up on this storm now
thanks for everything
steve if thes rain doesnt come on shore this will be the biggest bust ive ever expieienced
So far I have to agree. The development of this storm has been extremely tricky and has thrown us plenty of loops through the past several days. Just when I thought that I had a good handle on this storm, that divergence really threw me for a loop.
It has been raining moderately on and off up here in Union cty but yeah imagine if it was a snow event. Potential blizzard to nothing to foot of snow to 2″
Steve – Shouldn’t we worry about the cold air source as Canada is very warm right now so even if we did get a trough it wouldn’t be much below normal… Just like what happened in 2001-02 winter..
well i hope you feel better soon!!!! thanksgiving and the holiday are coming lol
steve im thankful that winter is coming lol im not thankful for the warmth lol
are you expecting any snow flakes,flurries or snow showers or are you expecting all rain,i know a lot of models are on board for snow including the euro!!
I think to start, rain with snow mixing in through the morning on Friday, a good chance for a complete turn over in higher elevations, especially in northwestern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania (near the Delaware River). Beware of thinking of this as an all snow event because temperatures from 950 MB to the surface are still above freezing as we are still not at the point where widespread snowfall can be supported without a well established cold air mass. However, we are heading in that direction.
oh no by no means was i expecting all snow i just thought you meant no snow at all. so u think we can get a mix (: i hope so
im not thanful this is missing us lol,it could have brought an awesome storm to us! yet another bust is on our hands lol
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO YOU TOO!!
im thankful that you made this site
do you see any snow events small or big within the next 10-14 days?
I think there is potential for a small to moderate snow event around the December 8th to December 10th time period.
how much rain are you expecting on thursday,i hope it makes up for fridays storm lol,and will this pattern be cold enough for the stormy part of the pattern to be at least some snow?
Not sure yet on the exact amounts, still a bit too far out for that, but at least a quarter inch can be expected. This current pattern will NOT lead to snow. No way. The pattern does not support snow, however after December 5 is a different story.
thanks steve,i actually did mean the upcomong cold patern
with the saturday scenario what do you think ne jersey/union county would get if anything?
It’s a little to early to say as far as accurate accumulations, but I would lean on the light side, flurries to maybe a dusting if this storm remains weak and east.
lets hope that this scenario does not happen then lol although id rather have that than nothing
if you know joe bastardi hes saying 4-8 inches along i95 so for now im gonna go somwhere between you and him and say 1-3
The problem with his forecast is the boundary layer temperatures. Lets consider somehow snow sticks at 35 degree throughout NYC and PHL metropolitan area. Well, then you have to contend with a snow/liquid ration of 8″ of snow to 1″ of rain. So in order to push that 4 to 8 inch range, a half an inch to an inch of precipitation will have to fall in the forecast area. I don’t see any support for that. I think the snowfall is going to have a hard time sticking. Snow in the air, not on the ground, for the most part.
so ur saying that snow will be falling but not sticking in other words ? ill take any kind of snow though,one thing that MAY be on our side is its supposed to get cold after thursdays storm right?
so for now your saying not to go with jbs forecast which is probably the best thing to do since i will probably be dissapointed in the end?
thanks for your help
That’s basically the idea. I’m not saying some accumulation isn’t possible at this time. But I can’t find any supportive data for a moderate snowfall. There is just no support unless the boundary layer temperatures are roughly 3 to 5 degrees colder than forecasted on the GFS and ECMWF and other guidance for that matter. I’ll keep an eye on any changes on that aspect, but I’m not confident on seeing that.
speaking of snow i had quite a suprise this morning when i looked out and it was snowing at a good clip for a little while
Yeah, pretty impressive little mid level disturbance that brought a snow squall.
if it does snow just a little thats still quie the the pattern change being on thursday t-storms are possible lol
im lookin forward to any snow and am no longer expecting anything big
The pattern is changing, slowly but surely. I was never for a fast change in the pattern but a step down process. The models are still having trouble handling the changes. I don’t like the idea of the negative EPO/negative AO pattern breaking down as fast as the GFS/ECMWF suggest. In previous scenarios when this pattern formed, the pattern tends to last much longer and at times can lead to a negative NAO, which is being hinted at strongly. Mid December is looking more cold than warm, but getting there is going to be frustrating.
good cause im tired of the warm lol
thanks alot and lookin forward to hearing from you tommorow
Hey Steve,
Can you explain how the mjo affects the pattern here in north america? I have heard a lot of people talk about this issue. How does the mjo at phase 7 stengthen the omega block? I assume that phase 7 of the mjo cooresponds to convection around the dateline. This vertical motion at the equator helps strengthen and/or develop an alleition low which in turns builds the ridge in Alaska. The low acts to keep the ridge strong and keeps it from retrograding. Is this correct? I am not a meteorologist but love the weather as a hobby.
Thanks,
Todd
We need a 12z update Steve!!! Looking much different!
any thoughts on the long range…see anything good coming for the I-95?
sorry to say it steve but 4 inches was wayyy off for me
i got a 1 inch while places 20 miles west got 5,im so tired of getting screwed but oh well thanks for everything hopfully this next storm will make up for the dissapointment
this storm was more like an ice storm!!!! 1 inch of snow then the freezing rain put down a nice sheet of ice that ive been sliding up and down my strret on than another inch of snow i wrote that other post too early i ended up getting 2 inches of snow sorry,i thought the storm was over
looking forward to weds storm as long as it brings some snow or anything wintry lol
7.25 here Steve. Lake Hopatcong, NJ. Sparta up the road has 8. Really difficult storm to forecast.
i hope that boundary layer you said in the last sentence that killed us cools down soon
do u think if this weekend storm pans out i will get some snow in ne jersey/nyc metro??
from this update it sounds like theres a good chance of snow this weekend!!!! do u think theres a good chance
i know you dont like going into totals too far away but it is thursday night so i was wondering what kind of potentiall we have here for sunday
no school on monday?lolol
Threat map this morning, preliminary snow map tonight, final tomorrow morning.
I don’t like to do the no school thing. School administrators can be more unpredictable than a hurricane doing a loop.
Steve, I am writing from central Maryland so I know that I am little outside of your forecasting range but I thouroughly enjoy your technical discussions about the weather. In reading Joe Lundberg’s column at the Accuweather website today, he continues to point to the lack of downstream blocking as a reason these cold shots don’t last very long in the east. It’s only December 11th but does your discussion take this blocking factor (or lack thereof)in to considerarion? Is this blocking pattern something that can be predicted or is it a phenomena that can only be discussed after the fact? Again, great website for weather nuts.
Good evening!
Thank you for your kind words and for visiting the website!
Blocking hasn’t formed yet because the atmosphere was not in a state of supporting a negative NAO over the Atlantic. However, that’s about to change now! Along with the previous stratospheric warming and the tanking of the Arctic Oscillation, the atmosphere over the north Atlantic is now prime for a negative NAO. What this means is that up to this point the cold air masses in the first ten days of December and for the next 3 days will continue to be transient. We can see that at the surface with this high pressure system. The cold air is clearly in place now, but because no mechanism is present to hold the high pressure system in place, the high exits and the storm moving north bring rain instead of snow.
The next two low pressure systems will lead to a mark change in the pattern, which all guidance agrees on. The negative NAO is formed out of the Polar Vortex moving towards Ontario and Quebec. Once that happens, get ready for sustained cold. However, a word of caution. If the negative NAO is too strong, as some models are showing, then the Sub Tropical disturbances become suppressed and the northern Mid Atlantic ends up cold and dry rather than cold and stormy.
if you ask me it looks extremley similar the the last 3 years,
cold = dry warm = wet
what a coincinidence the high moves out as a storm comes,i am shocked. im sorrybut im becoming very impatient ive been waiting 3 years now for a good winter,its starting to look like ill be waiting 4 years now
It’s not even winter yet. Last two years were La Nina years. This is an El Nino year. Completely different. Can we at least wait until meteorological winter starts?
lolol sorry its just ive been hearing a lot of people saying this looks just like the past 3 years
all this talk of snow is making me expect snow,like 2 days ago i was hearing sunday then again on tuesday but now rain on sunday and only a cold front for weds i really wish i can stop getting excited so excited too early
thatd be awesome if one of these gfs storms would happen and make us a nice little white christmas which we havent seen in 7 years lol
thanks for the updates
and i hope one of the disturbances can work out for us giving us snow (or both for that matter lol)
im lookin forward to a possible white christmas!!!!
alls i have to say is:
let it snow ,let it snow ,let it snow!!!! lol
Steve,
What excellent writeups regarding the upcoming patterns! If i wouldn’t miss your excellent easy to read synopsis i would ask that you teach!!!
Again thank you for putting all of this technical data in an easy to comprehend format for me!
when do you think this thing will be nailed down?
im supposed to be going down to deleware this weekend but i wont go if im gonna be driving home in a snowstorm lol
I’m hoping by Thursday night. I am growing more confident but not there yet.
it seems like the models dont look good for northeast jersey
they look good for baltimore and south i hope you can say somthing that will bring my hopes up lol
ill be happy with a moderate snow but you say in the last sentence that much of the northern mid atlantic may see the 1st major snowfall does that most mean ne jersey and nyc?
Well, there is still much to be figured out here. There’s a lot that I have to nail down before snow maps can be issued.
do u thik that heavy snow threat can move about 15 miles nw lol
thanks im looking forward to a fun couple of days lol
sorry about the deluge of questions im just strting to get on board though although idk if its too soon to get on board
steve why arent you updating lol
ur slakin jk we got a big storm a comin
Sweet.
wondering where you were at. Looking forwards to it STeve.. T-shirts should be a big hit
cant wait steve
I don’t know what comment to add other than you’ve done yeoman’s work in nailing this storm! Your site has become my “go to” site for weather, especially winter weather. Out local NWS forecast office has Frederick Maryland in a 5″ to 10″ accumulation zone but admits that other factors could play-in to the final tally.
Just an update on Frederick, MD from our NWS site. Accumulation predictions are now for 10″ to 20″ of snow with possible 30 MPH winds.
map BUST NW. Dutchess county predicted 10-15″ actual 0″. :,(
lukily is reall light dry snow so its preety light if this were 15 inches of wet snow vs light fluufy snow it would have been impossible
great job with this storm and thank you
your final map nailrd it for me in ne jersey u said 10-15 and i got 15 a+ for ne jersey
merry christmas steve!!!!! have a holly jolly christmas,its the best ime of the year
aand have a happy new year too!!
hey steve i was wondering with your premium website now if therell stil be these updates when you first come to this site like the free updates because im only 11 and dont really have money lol
[...] Accuweather updated their thoughts this morning. JB: AccuWeather.com Video – WOW HM: AccuWeather.com News & Blogs: Henry Margusity Blog And another pro met blog Arctic cold here to stay, snow is certainly on the way | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts [...]
well i see your discussing alot of descriptive details in your premium posts but your regular postss have become shorter and less detailed
are you going to give us young poor people a nice full out and complete post or are we chopped liver lol jk
whwn is prem update
In just a few minutes. Putting on the finishing touches now.
Thx
Give me snow, or give me death…lol.
Man, we gotta eject this storm out of Atlantic Canada so we can get some southern stream back. Maybe this artic wave can force everything down & up as it digs. We can only hope. I know one thing, the models aren’t handling this situation very well and probably won’t until Weds at the earliest.
I WANT SNOW
I second that SNODENT!!! Give me SNOW!!!! OR GIVE ME DEATH!!! SNOW…SNOW……SNOW…..SNOW…..LOL!!
Steve, we’re all getting jumpy/goofy while we’re waiting, not to mention tired.
Updated! Sorry, the uploading of the video took longer than I wanted to, but wanted to have high quality data to show the 500 MB features.
UPDATE, UPDATE, UPDATE,…LOL….rabid weather fans…LOL!!!
U da man Steve
U complete me STEVEOOOO, now lets get that video up!!
can someone tell me what do i click on to view video
Wow, all this cold air wasted, no big storms on the way. What a drag. I sure hope the cold holds till the southern stream can get back, if not, one half of January is blown. But we shall see huh?
Your premium break down this morning Steve is very well written. I kind of thought that the pattern was just going to go into reload, it’s just that we hate to see so much cold air wasted..lol. Anyways, it’ll come back, and probably with a vengeance.
Thank you!
I’m going to continue to produce quality free content, but the real gold is in the premium sections.
pennsylvania…
Your topic Tropical Storm Dolly Forms | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts was interesting….
pennsylvania…
Your topic How to access premium content | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts was interesting….
im sorry about what i said on yesturdays blog
its just that i just lost my father so im in the clouds a bit
Don’t worry about it and I’m sorry for your loss. I will keep you in my prayers.
thanks steve for being so cool about everything
Steve, is it me, or has this storm slowed down considerably? Looks like it’s feeling the storm over Atlantic Canada. Could this allow the trough to swing from positive to negative? Looks like it’s taking more of a jog se also, am I right? Could this mean a redevelopment further se along the coast? It certainly is not progessing like it was. Maybe I’m wrong…lol…maybe its just wishful thinking on my part.
jets vs cowboys not eagles, thanks for rubbing it in
This is certainly going to be an interesting week for the weather. One thing I do like to see is the low coming out of the gulf attacking the big cold high delivering the arctic air. If this is what is going to really happen, then game set match, because the mid atlantic gets most of their big snows exactly this way.
If anyone wants to see the heavy snowfall from the pre christmas storm go to http://www.nynjpaweather.com/stormwatch. I have a nice video online there.
Great analysis Steve, no hype, just calling it as you see it right now. It’s going to be an interesting week, however, I am warming up my video camera…lol.
Good premium post Steve, I agree with you 100%, rarely have I ever seen a gulf storm attack a cold high to the north and not have at least an I-95 special. The key question is, does it snow along the coast too? I think it will, especially if the trend is our friend.
Keep in mind that we get some of our strongest winter storms when the AO and NAO are beginning to relax. I think we are due another blow by mother nature and old man winter as they both relax for about 7-10 days.
Very nice explanation Steve. Your analysis is great, and I think by the time February goes by, people (even Snow lovers)will be screaming uncle.
OMG Steve, looking at a sat pic right now and I’m sick. If we had cold air on this storm it would be 12-18 inches no doubt. I’m sick right now, a Ravens loss and a rainy day tomorrow. That really stinks!!!! C’mon cold air, come back and do your work!!!
[...] I discussed last night, the timing of several features will be key in determining precipitation type throughout the region [...]
Long range is really looking good. Lots of cold air coming back and lots of moisture to run into it. C’mon February!!!
[...] the changes in the stratosphere (rapid warming, which has been covered for several weeks in variouspremium discussions) and a crashing negative Arctic Oscillation supports a new Polar Vortex developing over central [...]
Hi Steve I live in southern monroe county PA I wonder if we will get another batch of heavy precip today? It let up a little for now.
Steve,
I love your rant!!! How true!
One weather board only posted your latter potential map! For the life of me i can’t figure out how they removed the wording at the top.
Please keep doing what you are doing, i and many others appreciate your efforts and i know its time consuming and also realize you will probably average 0 sleep from Weds night until the storm ends!
Thanks again for your diligence Steve!
One run does not make a forcast Steve. I’d wait if I were you.
Thanks for your continued updates Steve. This has been a frustrating winter so far here in the Lehigh Valley. These storms that miss to the south are torture.
Rob.. the 00z suites last night started the supressive trend, ( besides the GFS) and the 12z runs today(even the GFS) kept the SOUTH**** trend going.
Def not a trend we wanna see
i gues this is another storm too give up on being im in the nyc metro, to tel you the truth with your post the last few days you realy got me hyped,now i dont know but this winter seems to be ALOT of hollow threats
what really got me happy was the map this morning that said accumulations likley and now its a southern slider
didnt the set up look perfect last night/this morning?
I don’t believe I ever said the set up was perfect. Favorable, yes. Perfect no. I did say a few times that the forecast hinged on the development of the Polar Vortex and the Sub Tropical disturbance and how each feature interacted with the other. This is why I have not called an all clear for this weekend in terms of this storm, but I have to acknowledge that the push towards a more suppressed pattern on the guidance does not bode well for a heavy snowfall.
so do you think i should give up being im in north central jersey?
Not yet, but the time to do so is drawing close. Likely by tomorrow night, the potential for this storm to trend north will be over.
hi steve
i was wondering if any of that precip in ohio is going to make it here being that looks like our best chance of getting anything
thanks
nick mcelroy
Steve,
My biggest concern is the winds, i sit about 3 miles west from the DE Bay (About 1/2 mile from North end of DAFB) on your First map when you notate winds and flooding for my area of the bay are you leaning more towards flooding concerns or both heavy wind and flooding?
I know you are busy but whenever you get a chance many thanks in advance!
Chrissy
I’m concerned about both of those issues for your area. Prepare for a minor to moderate coastal flooding event and wind gusts over 40 mph.
What are you thoughts on 18Z models? ….I think alot of us sure would love to see this thing shift just 30 or 40 miles north to get away from that sharp cutoff.
Thanks so much Steve that’s a big help! Stay Safe.
I don’t think i have ever been through a Blizzard before i have lived in Dover all my life with the exception of a year and a half in Bethany Beach, DE!
I live just South of Sandy Hook (Sea Bright). just signed up yesterday……… not looking for a backyard accumulation but wondering about what I can expect wind wise (sustained and gusts) and when the peak of the storm may be…… That cutoff gradient you have through Sandy Hook is wild but believable!!! Wish we could see just the slightest jog north….. think it is a nowcasting event from here out.
THANKS>
Look for sustained winds around 15 to 30 mph starting this evening. Gusts will be over 40 MPH with peak gusts possibly breaking 75 MPH on the waters.
Great write-up, but i feel this strom will have a few more surprises in it. It’s funny how that little snowfall from earlier in the week will prevent this storm from possibly being epic for the entire northeast!