NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Significant Snow Storm Expected For The Forecast Area

7:42 AM

I was really tempted to issue a Stage 3 Alert for locastions from Philadelphia through the New York City metro including central New Jersey and the southern Hudson Valley and Connecticut.  However, I think it would be wise to wait for 12Z guidance to confirm the trends and developments I am seeing this morning. 

My forecast has not changed, only my growing confidence of a significant snowfall over the forecast area.  All model guidance including the SREF means, GEFS means, GFS, NAM, UKMET, and Canadian have trended colder.  The ECMWF data in 12 hour intervals was not avialable to me for the time period in question, so I am leaving that model out of the equation. 

On of the issues that suggest a heavy snowfall is the development of mid level forcing over the forecast area.  The 850 MB low is expected to redevelop and intensify over the forecast area.  When this happens, the thermalgradient at the surface through 850 MB tightens significantly, producing impressive frontogenesis.  The latest average of guidance strongly points to this happening over the area I have high lighted on the snowfall map (see below), which suggest that some locations will hit 10 inches of accumulation when everthing is said and done.  Another interesting factor is that the water/snow ratio will be rising over northeastern Pennsylvania, the southern Hudson Valley, and Connecticut on early Sunday morning.  Instead of 1/10, those regions will rise to a 1/12 and 1/15 ratio.  Although the actual precipitation amount will be lower than over locations to the south like around New York City, the snowfall amounts will reach and exceed 4 inches due to the rising ratio. 

So with no changes expected in the forecast, here is a reposting of the snowfall forecast!

Map Descriptions and Details:

Light Blue:  This area mostly focuses on the central Hudson Valley.  At this time, the best dynamics remain to the south of this region as the storm track will be just too far south.  The precipitation will be all snow, however accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches.

Blue: This area basically covers from Poughkeepsie, New York through extreme northern Pennsylvania.  The precipitation is still expected to be all snow, however like the central Hudson Valley, the heaviest precipitation will remain to the south.  I expect snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in this location. 

Royal Blue:  This area includes much of the northern half of the Philadelphia metro including Philadelphia itself, central and northern New Jersey, the southern Hudson Valley, New York City metro, and all of Connecitcut.  It is this area that I think will be impacted by the one-two punch of first isentropic lifting snow followed by the strong dynamics of a developing coma head of the strengthening exiting low pressure system on early Sunday morning.  I expect a general 4 to 8 inches of snow in this region with some isolated locations reaching 10 inches at most under strong lifting parameters of a mesoscale nature.  Overall, I think most locations in this region will see an average of 5 to 6 inches from this storm.  However, the potential for significant influence of mesoscale processes and mid level forcing pushed me to a larger range in snowfall totals.  For example, should a band of heavier snow develop due to frontogenesis, then locations to the north and south of this band will get less snow than locations over that band of heavier snow.  This is due to air sinking to the north and south of the area of rising air.  What comes up, must come down.  I can’t forecast where that will happen, but I am betting it will.  Some locations will benefit greatly, others will be hurt by this.  The precipitation may mix at times with sleet late Saturday night, but I’m expecting an all snow event at this time.

Pink: Just to the south of the moderate snowfall will be an area of mixing of snow, sleet, and rain.  In this area, the influence of the redeveloping 850 MB low will cause mixng of the snow with sleet and rain.  This will significant hamper accumulation totals for locations in these area, which basically covers locations south of Philadelphia, south-central New Jersey, and coastal Monmouth County down through Ocean County, New Jersey and over southeastern Long Island.  I expect snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.  The precipitation will start as snow with an inch or two possible, mix with and possibly change to rain on Saturday night and then go back over to a light snow on Sunday mornign with another 1 to 2 inches possible. 

Green:  The push of warm air will be to strong to keep the cold air in these locations, which basically covers southern New Jersey.  The precipitation will start as snow but will change over to rain on Sunday night.  Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible on Saturday evening before the change over to rain.  The rain will change back over to snow on Sunday morning with up to an inch of snow possible.

Bust Potential:  There is still a lot that can go wrong in this forecast.  The 850 MB low can track a bit too far north and drag the rain/snow line towards New York City.  Given the model trends and the way the atmosphere is setting up, I don’t expect that.  There could also be a situation where the jet streak at 300 MB takes too long to develop and only light snow falls, which would limit accumulation totals significantly.  I will be keeping an eye on that over the next 24 hours as well!  Also, there are still boundary layer issues and the question of the amount of virga that will cut into potential accumulation that can impact this forecast.

The Cold And Snow Will Not Go Away Through Next Week

7:30 AM

The Arctic Express is on the way, and this has nothing to do with Santa Claus, however for some it might seem like Christmas morning all over again.

The negative EPO is going to be doing a heck of a job driving arctic cold air into the eastern two-third of the nation through next week.  As I have been discussing for several days now, don’t buy the dry and cold idea.  Why?  Because this trough is going to be loaded with engetic Pacific disturbances climbing over the ridge in Alaska and diving towards the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic coast. 

The air mass that is in place will be one of the coldest seen in this region in about a decade.  Forget about below normal temperatures, the departure for this period will permanently cement a below normal January temperature wise.  The other important influence of the cold temperatures is a very high water/snow ratio.  1/10 ratio can produce a nice snow event, like the one I am expecting on Saturday night.  However, when you are dealing with 1/12, 1/15, 1/20 type ratios like we will be dealing with on Tuesday evening and Wednesday night, the atmosphere won’t need a great deal of precipitation to produce a 6+” snowfall. 

The first clipper on Tuesday is likely being forecasted too far north by the mid range guidance again.  We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Take the low and place the track over central Pennsylvania and a redevelopment around the Delmarva for Tuesday.  The cold, arctic air is going to crash towards the coast, allowing heights to cave in like a sink hole along the coast.  The coastal low will deepen rapidly but also move rapidly Tuesday afternoon and evening from the coastal waters of New Jersey to east of New England.  I expect snow for most locations, but a initial rain or rain/snow mix along the immediate coast as temperatures fall.  A moderate to significant snow fall accumulation is possible with this system.

The next clipper will move through on Wednesday night with generally light snow, however the ratio will be in the 1/15 to 1/20 range thus turning 0.25″ to 0.50″ of QPF into 4 to 8 inches of snow over the forecast area, possibly more depending on mesoscale features.  So as you can see there is plenty of pontential for snow accumulation through this period. 

Cold temperatures will continue to remain over the forecast area into next weekend with the potential of an even more significant snow event as a Gulf low develops and tries to push towards the Mid Atlantic.

First True Snow Storm Of The Season Expected Saturday Night Through Sunday Morning

10:43 PM

At this point, I think I have this forecast pretty much where I want it.  Over the past several days I have been warning to beware of the upcoming pattern and the disturbances that will be associated with it.  Where here is the first disturbance, and there are strong indications that this disturbance will bring the first significant snowfall for many in the Philadelaphia and New York City metro. 

Before I go into the specifics of the snowfall map that I will post, I want to discuss how I think this storm will develop overall.  This storm takes shape over the southern Plains as energy dives into the eastern Rockies and shouts out towards the Mississippi Valley tomorrow.  There is some southern stream energy that gets involved in the northern branch disturbance, but not enough to over amplify the 500 MB trough. 

On Saturday morning, this disturbance will move into a confluence pattern overall at 500 MB.  This flat confluence pattern can at times shear a disturbance apart.  However, sometimes, like when you squeeze a hose just right, the jet dynamics take over and produce significant mid level forcing than what would otherwise be expected.  That’s exactly what I think is going to happen with this storm. 

This storm that will impact the forecast area Saturday evening through Sunday morning will come in two parts.  The first part will begin on Saturday afternoon in the form of isentropic lifting.  The approaching 850 MB low, though weakening, produces enough WAA to produce light snow cutting through Pennsylvania and into the forecast area.  However, as the jet dynamics improve due to a developing jet streak at 300 MB, the 850 MB low begins to intensify on Saturday evening.  This intensification will bring warmer air into the lower and mid levels over southern and southeastern New Jersey, but will also increase frontogenesis over the forecast area.  Meanwhile, the surface low will track from Mississippi Valley to the Delmarva Peninsula by Saturday night.

Strong PVA, divergence and difluence aloft to the northeast of the 300 MB jet streak, and a redeveloping 850 MB low will allow the surface low to intensify.  Meanwhile, the potential for banding of heavier snow fall will exist from Philadelphia through central New Jersey and across much of the New York City metro.  It is this area where temperatures at almost all levels stay below freezing, especially at 850 MB, and where the best dynamics combine to produce a steady snowfall.  Initially, there will be boundary layer concerns as temperatures will start out in the 32 to 35 degree range, but I think evaporational cooling combined with strong lifting will take care of that issue.  The second part of the storm will come on early Sunday morning as the low pressure system begins to intensify.  The coma head of the low pressure system will start to develop along the New Jersey coast and move through Long Island and Connecticut.  There is strong indication of this happening via several different model guidance producing strong OMEGA values at 850 and 700 MB over these regions in this time period.

This storm is not a historic storm, but will be significant in my opinion, especially considering the lack of real measureable snowfall for the past 2 years. 

Okay, so I teased you enough.  Here’s the latest snowfall map!

Map Descriptions and Details:

Light Blue:  This area mostly focuses on the central Hudson Valley.  At this time, the best dynamics remain to the south of this region as the storm track will be just too far south.  The precipitation will be all snow, however accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches.

Blue: This area basically covers from Poughkeepsie, New York through extreme northern Pennsylvania.  The precipitation is still expected to be all snow, however like the central Hudson Valley, the heaviest precipitation will remain to the south.  I expect snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in this location. 

Royal Blue:  This area includes much of the northern half of the Philadelphia metro including Philadelphia itself, central and northern New Jersey, the southern Hudson Valley, New York City metro, and all of Connecitcut.  It is this area that I think will be impacted by the one-two punch of first isentropic lifting snow followed by the strong dynamics of a developing coma head of the strengthening exiting low pressure system on early Sunday morning.  I expect a general 4 to 8 inches of snow in this region with some isolated locations reaching 10 inches at most under strong lifting parameters of a mesoscale nature.  Overall, I think most locations in this region will see an average of 5 to 6 inches from this storm.  However, the potential for significant influence of mesoscale processes and mid level forcing pushed me to a larger range in snowfall totals.  For example, should a band of heavier snow develop due to frontogenesis, then locations to the north and south of this band will get less snow than locations over that band of heavier snow.  This is due to air sinking to the north and south of the area of rising air.  What comes up, must come down.  I can’t forecast where that will happen, but I am betting it will.  Some locations will benefit greatly, others will be hurt by this.  The precipitation may mix at times with sleet late Saturday night, but I’m expecting an all snow event at this time.

Pink: Just to the south of the moderate snowfall will be an area of mixing of snow, sleet, and rain.  In this area, the influence of the redeveloping 850 MB low will cause mixng of the snow with sleet and rain.  This will significant hamper accumulation totals for locations in these area, which basically covers locations south of Philadelphia, south-central New Jersey, and coastal Monmouth County down through Ocean County, New Jersey and over southeastern Long Island.  I expect snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.  The precipitation will start as snow with an inch or two possible, mix with and possibly change to rain on Saturday night and then go back over to a light snow on Sunday mornign with another 1 to 2 inches possible. 

Green:  The push of warm air will be to strong to keep the cold air in these locations, which basically covers southern New Jersey.  The precipitation will start as snow but will change over to rain on Sunday night.  Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible on Saturday evening before the change over to rain.  The rain will change back over to snow on Sunday morning with up to an inch of snow possible.

Bust Potential:  There is still a lot that can go wrong in this forecast.  The 850 MB low can track a bit too far north and drag the rain/snow line towards New York City.  Given the model trends and the way the atmosphere is setting up, I don’t expect that.  There could also be a situation where the jet streak at 300 MB takes too long to develop and only light snow falls, which would limit accumulation totals significantly.  I will be keeping an eye on that over the next 24 hours as well!  Also, there are still boundary layer issues and the question of the amount of virga that will cut into potential accumulation that can impact this forecast.

Working On The Update….

You know, I was almost done with what I thought might be the finall ideas for this up coming snow storm for much of the forecast area, and then the 00Z NAM comes out has me at a loss for words as far as how cold this guidance has trended.  Remember, last night at this time the NAM has the 0 degree C line over the Hudson Valley, and the farthest north the freezing line gets at 850 MB is the New Jersey coast. 

I am going to get a snow map out this evening, though.  More in a few!

Arctic Express On The Way Along With More Snow Potential

7:49 AM

The theme going forward will likely crush the forecast for anyone going for a warm January.  The combination of a strong negative EPO and the postion of the upper low over eastern Canada will support a very cold air mass to dive into the eastern two-thirds of the nation. 

There can be no doubt that very cold Arctic air is on the way for the forecast area.  The model guidance for the medium range is in amazing agreement on this.  What’s also clear is that the forecast area will likely be under the influence of several passing and fast moving Alberta Clippers through the forecast area Monday through Wednesday, which will bring the forecast area a potential for light snow or snow showers each day.  Where and how much is not forecastable at this time, but there is high potential for sure as the dry, cold air squeezes out all the moisture in the atmosphere.

Towards the end of the week, there are a lot of hints of some southern branch energy diving towards the Gulf Coast and develop a Gulf Coast low with plenty of moisture over the Southeast.  This is screaming of a significant snow event for the Southeast.  However, the set up over the atmosphere and the strengthening amplification of the pattern strongly suggest that this low will at least track towards the Mid Atlantic coast, producing snow chances, possibly heavy, for the forecast area.  Especially for the immediate New York City and Philadelphia metros.

Significant Snow Finally On The Way?

7:37 AM

There is a growing agreement in the model guidance that a significant snowfall will impact much of the forecast area. 

There’s a lot to discuss, but my ideas which I have presented have not changed overall, but I am able now to get in to some details on how this storm will develop on Saturday. 

First, let’s discuss the next 48 hours.  As the storm from yesterday pulls away from the forecast area, high pressure will be in control producing clear to partly cloudy weather conditions over the forecast area.  Temperatures will average near normal ahead of what will be the beginning of a very cold period for the forecast area. 

The storm that lifts out of the forecast area today will be a perfectly positioned 50/50 low for the forecast area for Saturday.  Okay, I’ve made you guys wait long enough, here are my thoughts.  First the threat map!

Preliminary Threat Map

The basic idea here is I’m taking an average of the guidance and mix in the trends we’ve been seeing the past few runs.  For example, the SREF has certainly trended south and colder towards the GFS solution.  The Canadian and UKMET are also in strong agreement as well with the GFS solution.  The NAM and ECMWF are now in a warm camp, but I think these solutions are a bit too amplified and lossing support among other guidance.  The GEFS even is clusering towards the GFS, so therefore with all this agreement leaning on a GFS more with a bit warm solution along the coast.

The low pressure system will track through the southern Ohio Valley, towards the MD/PA boarder and through extreme southern New Jersey.  The 850 MB low in my forecast will track slightly to the north of this area.  As such, I think 850 MB temperatures will warm enough to keep areas shaded in green as all rain.  Areas shaded in pink will have mixing issues at the 850 MB temperatures will be right around -1 to 1 degree C through the event, thus producing periods of snow, sleet, and rain.  How much and to what amount of each precipitation is unknown at this time.  There areas shaded in blue is where I think the atmosphere stays below freezing and supports mostly or all snow throughout the event at this time.  The latest guidance still may be a bit too suppressed in terms of QPF based on what I am seeing at the upper levels.  The strong PVA at 500 MB, strong mid level forcing at 850 and 700 MB (frontogenesis and development of 700 and 850 MB lows) along with the average location of the best upper level jet streak dynamics would agrue for the heaviest precipitation to fall from roughly Philadelphia through central New Jersey through the New York City metro and over southern Connecticut.  I think parts of Albany would be on the low end of this storm right now as far as accumulation amounts.

The latest BUFKIT soundings from the GFS would suggest a snowfall over 4 inches throughout the forecast area excluding southern New Jersey (green area) and over 6 inches from Philadelphia through New York City.  However, I want to wait for the 12Z runs this afternoon before issuing a preliminary snow map.

So that’s my thoughts on this potential storm right now.  The features I’ll be watching over the next 24 hours is basically the amplification of the ridge over the West and the track of the 850 MB low.  If the low tracks further north and is stronger on the onset Friday night, then the ECMWF warmer solution would be the way to go.  The fact that the SREF trended away from this idea this morning points me away from the ECMWF at this time.

Thoughts For The Weekend And Beyond

8:41 PM

I can tell the excitement is building for Saturday based on the emails that have flooded my inbox this afternoon.  Yes, the model guidance, and I mean all model guidance, is picking up on the potential for the Alberta Clipper on Saturday. 

Before we get into the model guidance, let’s get back to the basics for a second.  I’ve been advertising for a few days now, that this pattern holds a lot of potential for the forecast area.  Note the amplifying ridge over the West coast that in turn amplifies the trough over the eastern two-thirds of the nation.  This amplification allows for disturbances, like the disturbance for this weekend, to dig further south and become more energized than one would think.  Those, my reason why I wasn’t convinced that this clipper for Saturday was a non-event and I sure as heck didn’t buy the idea that the storm track was cutting through Lake Ontario.  Not with the amplification out west and the lingering effects of the weakening negative NAO to the north.  All indications pointed to this disturbance being “more than meets the eye”. 

So what have we seen in the past 12 hours from model guidance?  The ECMWF has taken the lead with driving this clipper through the SOUTHERN Ohio Valley and through the Delmarva Peninsula.  There has been a significant trend south, and the forecast period is in the ECMWF’s bulls eye of highest accuracy.  So that model alone would give me confidence in a much more southerly track.  However, I also have added support of the 12Z and 18Z GFS, the Canadian, and the UKMET.  The SREF guidance is trending in the direction of the ECMWF, while the NAM is lost in the wilderness and is an outlier.  So why the change?

Remember a few days ago, I was concerned tha the models were leaving too much southern stream energy behind.  That I didn’t like the idea of a bowling ball over Colorado under cutting a growing ridge and a strengthening northwesterly upper level jet.  That didn’t make much sense to me even though everyone seems to jump on the gravy train because the ECMWF said so.  Therefore, I didn’t change my forecast.  Now, the guidance is keeping some of the southern stream energy with the northern branch.  The disturbance on ALL guidance is much stronger than forecasted a few days ago and much further south.  Therefore we are seeing a change in the surface reflections on the model guidance.  So is the 18Z GFS right with the heavy snow then? 

Well, I continue to say, never let you guard down with a clipper.  Now, look the 18Z GFS is not exactly alone here as far as the low pressure placement, PVA strength, and strong thermal gradient at 850 MB to the surface.  The 12Z ECMWF isn’t too far away from this look and neither is the 12Z Canadian either.  However, I suspect the GFS is a bit too robust with the QPF on Saturday afternoon and evening.  Is heavy snow possible?  Yes, it is!  If this clipper rapidly deepens off the Delmarva coast, then much of the forecast area, (even you too Philly!) can see a period of heavy snow on Saturday afternoon.  Ironically, this would set up perfectly for the battle between the Giants and Eagles.  Anyway, should the clipper deepen off the New Jersey coast while the 850 MB low develops, then significant rising air would be present along the coast along with strong frontogenesis, PRESTO!  Heavy snow.  So, keep an eye on the guidance the next 48 hours.  The key here is how fast does the ridge amplify over the West and the resulting strength and location of the PVA (disturbance) on Friday night.  If this PVA is trucking through the central Mississippi Valley, then get your snow shovels ready.

Now, as for the period thereafter.  I want to be careful with what I say here.  I do believe we are heading for a very cold period of weather.  Possibly the coldest we’ve seen in this decade, which isn’t saying much considering how warm the winters have been.  I continue to think that the Arctic air is coming, but I also don’t buy into the idea that the forecast area or the Mid Atlantic will be completely dry.  This pattern at 500 MB has a lot of potential.  The guidance continues to send various disturbances into the trough through the middle of this month and these disturbance tend to head towards the Mississippi Valley and drive towards the coast.  Overall, these disturbances will likely be suppressed and produce only light precipitation.  However, as many of you know, you only need one such disturbance to make things interesting.  So I would get the heavy jacket ready for sure, and keep that shovel on stand by.  Looks like I am going to need more coffee!

Thoughts on Friday On The Way

7:39 PM

I just want to say, I got all your emails and yes I know about the GFS and ECMWF is showing on Saturday.  See what I mean about not letting your guard down with this clipper?  Anyway, I’m going to give my complete thoughts on this entire set up and the impressive cold (and snow?) to follow thereafter later this evening.  However, first I want to organize my thoughts and give this discussion a good look over. 

Update before 9 PM can be expected!

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

7:51 AM

Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS.  However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is developing. 

Note some important difference compared to previous patterns.  One, the negitve EPO ridge is in game and developing nicely.  The cold air express is certainly on the way.  Two, the PV that is developing over North America is further south and east this time compared to early December, suggesting very cold conditions over the Northeast along with a storm track through the Mid Atlantic.  Three, the supposed death of the negative NAO has been greatly exaggerated.  There is clearly a weak 50/50 low/trough in place through the end of next week, with a weak ridge over Greenland.  Remember I said model guidance was going to kick the influence of that strong blocking out the door too fast.  The impact of that blocking is the atmosphere having an easier time setting up a weak negative or nuetral NAO pattern, which is exactly what the Northeast and Mid Atlantic wants when setting up a pattern for potential storms.  Finally, the model guidance whether GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, or GEFS has a lot of energy diving into the trough over the eastern CONUS with plenty of shortwaves moving through the forecast area.  So what does this mean for us?

Well, the overall storm track type we can expect are clippers and the possible interaction of southern branch disturbances.  Clippers tend to produce snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 or 3 to 6 inches, however this winter we’ve also seen them tend to blow up pretty quickly.  Just as northeastern Connecticut!  So that leads us to Saturday.

The model guidance has trended to a more southern track and a slightly colder solution.  The ECMWF would suggest a light to moderate snowfall north of Philadelphia through central New Jersey and all of the New York City metro.  In fact, the ECMWF also indicates that some of the southern branch energy that was expected to break off into a bowling ball over the Southwest hangs with the northern branch, and produces a more dynamic clipper for the forecast area.  The latest SREF guidance is also trending more south with this clipper and slowly but surely, so is the GFS, UKMET, and Canadian.  With a ridge building over the West and more energy in the deepening trough, I still am stead fast in believing we need to keep an eye on this clipper.  For locations from Philadelphia to southern New Jersey, I think the track of this clipper is still too far north, therefore some rain may get mixed in and the best lifting will remain to your north as well. 

There also appears to be growing potential for a potential storm for the middle of the week, although the details are sketch at this point.  What is clear is that a lot of PVA is going to be driving towards the coast ahead of an impressive Arctic blast for the eastern third of the nation.  The ECMWF is stronly hinting at some sort of coastal development or jump as a clipper races through the southern Great Lakes and a low begins to develop along the coast.  The GFS is also showing this, but I have doubts on the strength of the GFS 500 MB pattern, frankly looks a bit unrealistic to me at this time to have a deep closed 500 MB low diving towards the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday.  The point here is that we are entering a pattern where a lot of disturbances will move through with the potential for light to moderate snowfall over the forecast area and plenty of cold air to work with.  The amplitude of the pattern would suggest the potential for one or a few of these disturbances to crank up a bit to surprise some with a heavier than expected snowfall, likely along the immediate coast.  The weak negative to nuetral NAO pattern would allow low pressure system to move more slowly than in previous patterns. 

That’s the potential going foward.  How the details work out is unknown.  This could easily be a very snowy period for the forecast area or be a dry and cold period with most of the snow over southern New England.  The details will tell the story.

Heavy Ice And Rain To Continue Through This Afternoon

7:27 AM

The forecast for the next three days is obviously going to be the most active in the next 24 hours.

Currently, a coastal low pressure system is developing off the New Jersey coast.  Winds along the coast are beginning to turn to the northwest over southern New Jersey and northeast along Long Island, clearly indicating a new low pressure system developing.  The developing coastal low will have an effect of slowly down the push of low level warm air into the interior through the morning, however the primary low is still over the Ohio Valley and will likely continue to remain the primary low through this afternoon. 

The coastal plain will continue to have heavy rainfall through the afternoon hours with total storm amounts of over 1.5″ expected by this evening.  Currently much of southern and central New Jersey and Long Island is getting the heaviest rainfall. 

Meanwhile, temperatures are holding below freezing over much of northeastern Pennsylvania, Sussex County in New Jersey, throughout the Hudson Valley, and over interior Connecticut.  Temperatures will slowly rise above freezing over parts of Connecticut, the southern Hudson Valley, and all of New Jersey by later this morning.  However, I am not convinced of a change over to rain over northeastern Pennsylvania, especially around the PA/NY boarder and throughout much of the central Hudson Valley.  It is clear that the majority of the precipitation from this storm will be in the form of freezing rain for these locations through the early afternoon. 

There are signs starting to develop of a dry slot over the Delmarva Penninsula and extreme southern New Jersey (Cape May County specifically).  As the coastal low begins to take over this afternoon, look for precipitation to begin to weaken significantly over the western areas of the forecast area, and for the heaviest precipitation to begin to shift north and east of the forecast area. 

The pattern from tonight on through Friday will be transitioning to a very cold and active pattern.  A series of weak disturbances will move through the forecast area on Thursday and Friday with a few scattered snow showers and temperatures averaging near to below normal through the next few days.