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    Over the past several months, I’ve been keeping an eye on the drought situation over southern New Jersey, which has significantly impacted farmers and caused a rise in prices in fruits and vegetables.   Here is the latest information on the drought going back to May of 2007.

2007 date from May to December:

Actual: 21.16″

Average: 28.51″

Deficit: -7.35“

January of 2008:

Actual: 2.30″ 

Average: 3.63″

Deficit:  -1.33“

February of 2008:

Actual:  3.33″

Average: 3.19″

Difference:  0.14“ 

March of 2008:

Actual: 3.37″

Average: 4.38″

Difference: -1.01″ 

April of 2008:

Actual: 3.57″

Average: 3.53″

Difference: +0.04″ 

May of 2008:

Actual:  5.62″

Average: 3.94″

Difference:  +1.68″

June:

Actual:  3.35″

Average: 3.27″

Difference: +0.12″

July:

Actual: 2.10″

Average: 3.59″

Difference: -1.49″

Total Deficit for 2008: -1.85

Total Deficit Since May 2007:  -9.20″

Discussion:

         The main theme for July was the active severe weather pattern over much of the Mid Atlantic.  The Mid Atlantic has basically been the battle zone between the very hot and humid conditions over the Southeast and the cool, dry air masses moving through the Great Lakes and New England.  As a result, a series of disturbances continued to interact with the warm, moist air, which lead to out breaks of strong to severe thunderstorms.  The problem here was that these thunderstorm complexes were not wide spread and were concentrated mostly over northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and the Hudson Valley.  

        When I looked at the radar trends of these thunderstorms, I also noticed one very interesting observation.  Every time a disturbance tracked towards southern New Jersey, the thunderstorms rapidly weakened.  Whether the thunderstorms approached from the west or south, the same trend seem to occur.  For most thunderstorm out brakes, the thunderstorms would pulse down and precipitation rates fell.  Then once the thunderstorms exited southern New Jersey, the thunderstorm rainfall rates increased.  What does this mean?  I am theorizing that this is occurring due to very dry low levels below 950 M, possibly even below 1000 MB, which is inhibiting low level moisture from feeding into thunderstorms.  

        The only way I see this drought breaking is for a stratoform precipitation event or a tropical cyclone.  

SPECIAL THANKS TO JEFF FLETCHER FOR PROVIDING LOCALIZED DATE FOR THIS UPDATE.  THE DATA (ALONG WITH NWS DATA) WAS GREATLY APPRECIATED!

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