7:45 AM

High pressure is slowly transitioning towards the Ohio Valley today, which will lead to a slight shift in the winds towards the northwest.  Other than the wind shift, conditions will remain rather quiet throughout the northern Mid Atlantic, as least for now.

The water vapor satellite picture this morning shows an interesting separation between the Sub Tropical and Polar jet streams.  Note that the low pressure over the Southeast will remain well south and east of the northern Mid Atlantic over the next 24 hours due to the Polar jet stream suppressing the low pressure system.  An area of sinking air between the two jet streams is centered right over the Philadelphia metropolitan area through Long Island, which will lead to clear skies due to sinking air over the region.  This sinking air will also support warm temperatures with many locations breaking well into the 60’s, possibly upper 60’s by this afternoon.  Yes, it will be very difficult to concentrate this afternoon at work or school!

Now, these conditions are expected to continue through this weekend with clear skies and rather warm temperatures.  In fact, I would not rule out the potential for highs hitting 70 degrees over the Delaware River Valley and some urban locations due to the strong sun shine and sinking motion of the atmosphere.  However, the tranquil conditions will come to an end by the start of next week.

The upper level pattern will shift once again as the Sub Tropical jet stream begins to move north and west.  This shift in the Sub Tropical jet stream will lead to a weak ridge over the Southeast coast and force a storm track through the Mid Atlantic.  For example, the storm that is south and east of the region today would have been forced into the northern Mid Atlantic if this pattern shift had happened already.  The first low pressure system is expected on late Sunday night through Monday in the form of a slow moving cold front.  As the low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley, the Polar jet stream will phase with the Sub Tropical disturbance to add a Polar air mass into the mix.  The result will be periods of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms through Monday evening.

The low pressure system will exit by Tuesday morning with a few lingering showers followed by clearing conditions.  High pressure will take hold on Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with dry conditions, scattered to few clouds, and temperatures rebounding into the 50’s and 60’s.  However, another area of low pressure with a similar storm track is expected by Friday and Saturday with periods of rain and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms.

Overall, the temperatures through the next seven days will remain relatively above normal, especially for this weekend.  The new pattern that evolves for next week will bring a risk of severe weather returning to the region along with the potential for additional flash flooding.

5:02 PM

This is the second afternoon of perfect conditions with clear skies, low humidity, and temperatures pushing into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s along the immediate coast and lower to mid 60’s throughout the rest of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.

The tranquil conditions will continue into this evening as temperatures slowly fall through the 50’s and into the 40’s under clear skies and light winds.  With dew points in the teens throughout the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, temperatures will have no problem crashing in the early morning hours into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s over the northern interior and mid to upper 30’s along the coast.  So expect a slightly chilly start to Thursday.

Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control with perfect Spring conditions through Friday and for much of the weekend.  In fact, high temperatures for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will easily push into the 60’s even along the immediate coast and may touch 70 degrees away from the beaches, especially over the Delaware River Valley.  Clearly a far different weather weekend than last weekend or compared to the past several weeks.

A cold front will approach late on Sunday with increasing clouds and showers late in the evening.  Periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms can be expected through Monday afternoon with the potential for some flash flooding in areas already prone to flooding this afternoon.  Temperatures on Monday will likely linger in the 40’s and 50’s due to the rainfall.

High pressure will return on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with clearing skies and temperatures rebounding into the 50’s and 60’s once again.

7:15 AM

After a February and early March that produced historic heavy snowfall, heavy rain, flash flooding, wind damage, and all sorts of other issues; the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas finally are going to get a nice and well deserved break.

High pressure this morning is producing clear skies with temperatures in the mid 30’s to lower 40’s throughout the northern Mid Atlantic.  Clear skies can be expected through the day and into tonight with temperatures this afternoon expected to break into the lower to mid 60’s throughout the region.  The only exception will be the immediate coast where the Atlantic Ocean will keep temperatures slightly cooler in the upper 50’s.  A perfect day for St. Patrick’s Day!

High pressure will remain in control through this coming weekend with similar conditions.  In fact, there is a real potential for some locations to push close to if not to 70 degrees on Saturday and Sunday.  So clearly this weekend is the time to get outside and enjoy the comfortable conditions, unless you are watching basketball that is!

The next threat for rain will return late on Sunday night through Monday as a slow moving cold front drives through the northern Mid Atlantic.  This cold front will produce periods of heavy rain along with embedded thunderstorms with a returning Polar air mass as the front exits on Monday evening.

High pressure will quickly become established throughout the northern Mid Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday with clearing skies and rapidly modifying temperatures, especially on Wednesday.  Overall, a much more tranquil period of weather than what has been experienced over the past several weeks.

Good evening everyone!

If you are a premium member, I would like your feedback on the membership.  What do you like?  What need improvement?  What new features would you like to see?

Some of your comments may be used for advertisement in the future.

Thank you for your support!

Steven DiMartino

Did the last major storm catch you by surprise?  Were you prepared for the wind and flooding?  NY NJ PA WEATHER PREMIUM MEMBERS were prepared for this historic storm with warnings of the magnitude of this dangerous storm.  Now is the time to gain an advantage and stay ahead of the storms for less than 50 cents a day!!

Learn how NY NJ PA WEATHER CONSULTING can help your business grow with the most detailed analysis for the northern Mid Atlantic!  Don’t let severe weather catch you by surprise!