HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEEKEND

GREAT WEEKEND WEATHER EXPECTED

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS WEAK

TROPICAL WEATHER PAGE

TECHNICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION

LOCAL FORECAST DISCUSSION

BASEBALL WEATHER CONDITIONS

new! FOOTBALL WEATHER CONDITIONS

The local forecast discussion is updated.

A great weekend for outdoor activities can be expected, so get out of that chair and run a few miles!  Just kidding, but seriously the weather is going to be great for all the usual harvest type activities.  The next cold front to impact the forecast area will come from the east in the form of a back door cold front for Monday and Tuesday.  Then another cold front from the west on Wednesday and Thursday.  Looks like next week is going to be slightly more active.  

The follow themes are covered in the technical forecast discussion.

1. Support for high pressure.

2.  Marine influence.

3. Cold front to the east, cold front to the west.

The local forecast discussion is updated.

The general theme through this weekend is the dominance of high pressure and how great the weather conditions will be!  The bad news is that the “party” is going to come to an end next week with what I believe to be a stronger back door cold front than currently seen on the model guidance this morning. 

The following themes are discussed in the technical forecast discussion.

1. Convergence and confluence, the ideal ingredients for a perfect weekend.

2. Marine air anyone?

3.  Slow moving cold front for the middle of the week.

The tropical Atlantic is starting to show signs of increased activity this morning as a disturbance 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of development.  The disturbance does have a rather well formed low level circulation with an increase in showers and thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  The atmospheric environment is favorable for development at least for the next 3 days as a ridge of high pressure remains to the north of this disturbance.  

However, I don’t think this disturbance has much of a future beyond the eastern Atlantic.  A strong trough will remain over the eastern Caribbean and produce strong westerly shear.  The shear will be strong enough to inhibit development on any disturbance attempting to move towards the west and would likely force this disturbance to turn towards the north into the central Atlantic in time.

7:37 AM

The local forecast discussion has been updated.

Once the disturbance that has brought showers to the forecast area this morning exits the region, generally comfortable and clear conditions can be expected through this weekend.  A back door cold front is going to complicate the forecast for early next week.  Also, I look at the long range forecast which may have Halloween ending up being rather chilly.

The following themes are covered in the technical forecast discussion.

1. Clear sailing through the weekend.

2. Cloudy and cool for the start of next week?

3.  The Pacific and you.