The Mets will host the second game against the Red this evening and look to tie the series up. Variable clouds can be expected with a few scattered showers in the early evening hours. The best potential for showers will be between 6 PM and 8 PM around Citifield. As such, a delay in the game will be possible but is currently not expected. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph, which will blow out to center and right field. Temperatures will fall from 81 to 75 degrees through the game.
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FORECAST FOR JUNE 2013
TEMPERATURES: Above Normal
PRECIPITATION: Below Normal
As I was discussing in the video yesterday, there are interesting observations showing up in the ENSO region, specifically at the Sub-Surface that MAY be indicating a shift from a neutral ENSO to a weak La Nina on the way.
Above is the Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies in the ENSO areas. This observation gives us a signal of an El Nino, La Nina, or neutral pattern. When the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly starts to go above normal, this is a strong signal for an El Nino on the way. On the other hand, when the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly is below normal or is falling, that is a signal for a La Nina on the way.
Over the past several months this observation had trended from a clear La Nina indicator to a neutral one. However, over the past several weeks we are starting to see the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly decline once again. Unlike previous declining indicators, the fundamental difference this time is that now there are clearly cooling anomalies at the Sub Surface which is a key indicator of at least a cold neutral ENSO influence if not a weak La Nina.
Such a development of a La Nina will not have a direct impact on the weather pattern for a few months, likely in August. However, as the SSTA fall below normal over the eastern Pacific, the potential for convection to focus over the Maritime Continents (Philippines) will increase leading to a more likely MJO phase of 2 through 4 going forward. These observations by the way basically scream the GFS is out to lunch while the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, and other models are right on. Look for building 500 MB heights and a gradually strengthening eastern ridge going forward.
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Categories : Premium- Long Range Thoughts
By Steven DiMartino · Comments (0)
Tuesday,
May
21st,
2013
This is a discussion of the state of the model guidance and the potential for volatility within the forecast in terms of precipitation and temperatures for the northern Mid Atlantic. This forecast is geared for commodity and energy traders where weather conditions can have a substantial impact on cost and profits.
Updated for 6:57 AM
DISCUSSION
MODEL PREFERENCE:
Went with ECMWF for short range and a blend of ECMWF and GFS for Long Range.
TODAY:
Models are in strong agreement on position of stationary boundary and precipitation threat. Volatility is LOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Models have improved in agreement overall of the 500 MB pattern but some differences in details remain in the strength of troughs and timing of cold fronts, especially on Thursday evening. The forecast for the weekend appears to be in strong agreement though. Still, volatility is MODERATE.
LONG RANGE:
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonably strong agreement, however there are concerns on the potential for upper level lows to create significant unforeseen volatility in the forecast in terms of precipitation and temperatures. The pattern is clearly changing to a more zonal/ridge in the East type pattern, however weak disturbances cutting off from the Polar jet stream is slowing the process. At this time, volatility is MODERATE.
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Categories : Premium- Volatility
By Steven DiMartino · Comments (0)
Tuesday,
May
21st,
2013
6:52 AM
INTERIOR CONNECTICUT
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 80′s.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower 60′s for lows and lower to mid 80′s for highs.
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80′s.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60′s for lows and mid to upper 80′s for highs.
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80′s.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60′s for lows and mid to upper 80′s for highs.
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80′s.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60′s for lows and mid to upper 80′s for highs.
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80′s.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60′s for lows and mid to upper 80′s for highs.
PHILADELPHIA METRO
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80′s.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60′s for lows and mid to upper 80′s for highs.
NEW YORK CITY METRO
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 80′s.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60′s for lows and lower to mid 80′s for highs.
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70, lower 70′s on the south shore.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60′s for lows and mid to upper 70, lower 70′s on the south shore.
NEW JERSEY COAST
Morning fog with visibilities below a mile in some locations will give way to variable clouds by 10 AM. Showers will be a threat in the afternoon and evening hours with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding a threat. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70, lower 70′s on the south shore.
Fog will redevelop towards tomorrow morning and will be locally dense. Showers will remain a threat in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be from the south and southeast at 5 mph. Temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60′s for lows and mid to upper 70, lower 70′s on the south shore.
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Categories : Premium- Regional Aanlysis
By Steven DiMartino · Comments (0)
Tuesday,
May
21st,
2013
TAF FORECASTS AVAILABLE UPON REQUESTS!
UPDATED AS OF 6:47 AM
WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Philadelphia and New York City:
Fog will be a threat in the morning hours today and tomorrow with LIFR, IFR, and MVFR conditions expected. MVFR and VFR conditions will return in the late morning and afternoon hours throughout the region, however scattered showers will keep the threat of IFR conditions in some locations. Turbulence will be a threat in some showers. Delays of over 30 minutes due to the weather will be possible over the next 48 hours.
COMPRESSION:
There is no threat of compression over the next 48 hours.
ICING:
There is no threat for icing over the next 48 hours.
THUNDERSTORMS:
There is a slight threat for thunderstorms over the next 24 hours.
CROSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS:
Cross wind shear will be between 5 to 10 knots over the next 24 hours.
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Categories : Premium- Aviation
6:44 AM
Locally dense fog will lift by 10 AM with visibility below a mile in some locations rebound to over 6 miles. Fog will be a threat once again tomorrow morning.
Scattered showers, developing in the afternoon, will be capable of localized heavy downpours leading to moderate to major ponding on the roadways, localized flash flooding, and visibility below a mile.
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Categories : Premium- Road Conditions
6:37 AM
A few important changes can already be seen in this morning’s water vapor satellite in terms of shower/thunderstorm potential for this afternoon. Note the air of black signaling sinking air due to upper level convergence has shifted to the northeast while the stationary front is now well to the north of the forecast area. Also note more mid level moisture has built into the northern Mid Atlantic this morning signaling a far more humid and warmer air mass in place.
The best dynamics clearly remain to the west of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas where the vertical thermal lapse rate clearly supports a far more unstable air mass developing. The strongest mid and upper level disturbances are also focused further west over the Ohio River Valley on southeast through the southern Mississippi River Valley for this afternoon. Further, wind shear at all levels of the atmosphere clearly is more focused further to the west. All of these factors point to the best potential for severe thunderstorms to remain to the west of the region over the next 24 to 48 hours.
However, with the inhibiting factor or sinking air now pushed to the northeast, day time heating will support some destabilization of the atmosphere and thus the growth of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With mid and upper level winds relatively weak under the influence of a building ridge over the eastern United States, these showers and thunderstorms will move very slowly over the region. As a result, the primary concern I have with the showers and thunderstorms will be the capability for localized flash flooding due to prolonged heavy downpours over a single location. While not expected, there is a threat for a location to have one to three inches of rain or more in this air mass while the town over has barely a tenth. That’s the nature of these air masses, very difficult to pin point what location will get what and how much. Otherwise, by the evening the atmosphere will stabilize again leading to showers and thunderstorms to weaken and eventually dissipate.
The cold front on Thursday evening will feature the best potential for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the timing of this cold front suggest the passage will take place past the peak of best instability. Further, the trough approaching the East will clearly weaken and shift north towards the Canadian maritimes. Still, there are enough indications of a strong 850 MB low level jet streak ahead of the cold front and plenty of low level moisture to warrant the threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday evening capable of wind gusts over 50 mph, very heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and even hail. Should be a very interesting evening for the Mid Atlantic as a whole.
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Categories : Premium- Severe Threat Analysis
05/21/13 6:15 AM
With the warm front/stationary front now to the north of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas, the entire northern Mid Atlantic is now immersed in the tropical Atlantic air mass moving up the East Coast. As a result, fog once again is widespread this morning with visibility below a mile in many locations. Expect a repeat of similar conditions tomorrow morning.
The fog will lift by 10 AM this morning with variable cloudy cover and hazy conditions. A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and early evening hours. These thunderstorms are not expected to be severe but will be capable of producing very heavy downpours leading to localized flash flooding. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will vary depending on location. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80′s over the interior and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, lower to mid 80′s over the New York City metropolitan area, mid to upper 70′s along the New Jersey coast, much of Long Island, and coastal Connecticut, and lower to mid 70′s along the south shore of Long Island.
Another foggy start can be expected for tomorrow morning with visibilities falling below a mile in some locations. The fog will break up by late morning with variable cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. Winds will be from the south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60′s. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80′s over the interior and Philadelphia metropolitan area, lower to mid 80′s over the New York City metropolitan area, mid to upper 70′s along the New Jersey and Connecticut coast, and lower to mid 70′s over Long Island.
A cold front will approach on Thursday with wide spread showers and thunderstorms by the evening hours. These thunderstorms may be severe with very heavy downpours, wind gusts over 50 mph, frequent lightning, and hail. These thunderstorms will be capable of localized flash flooding, wind damage, and hail damage along with frequent ground to cloud lightning strikes. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Lows temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60′s. High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 80′s over the Philadelphia metro and interior, upper 70′s to lower 80′s over the New York City metropolitan area, and mid to upper 70′s along the coast.
Showers will linger on Friday morning followed by clearing skies in the afternoon and evening as high pressure takes control and wind shift to the northwest. High pressure will remain in control Friday night on through Monday with dry and tranquil weather conditions. Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal through the period. Temperatures on Friday will range from the lower to mid 60′s for lows and mid to upper 70′s for highs. Temperatures on Saturday through Monday will range from the upper 40′s to mid 50′s for lows and upper 60′s to lower 70′s, mid to upper 60′s along the immediate coast for highs.
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Categories : Public Discussions
In today’s Premium Video Discussion I explain why showers and thunderstorms are not developing today but will be a threat the rest of the week. Plus I discuss the developing Summer pattern and some surprising observations in the Tropical Pacific. Details on my thoughts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more!
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Categories : Premium- Video Discussions
Might come as a surprise to some but lets go over how temps have been so far in May for the Mid Atlantic.
Charlottesville, VA:
- Monthly temp departure is -1.0° below normal @ 60.5°
- 12 of the last 19 days has had below normal max temps
Washington DC
- Monthly temp departure is -.40° below normal @ 63.7°
- 11 of the last 19 days has had below normal max temps
Atlantic City, NJ
- Monthly temp departure is -2.0° below normal @ 57.3°
- 11 of the last 19 days has had below normal max temps
Harrisburg, PA
- Monthly temp departure is -1.3° below normal @ 59°
- 11 of the last 19 days has had below normal max temps
One of the more interesting stat I realized was in
Danbury, CT in Fairfield county in SWCT near the NY border.
- Only 3 of 19 nights above normal with lows. Only 6 times above normal with the highs.
One more interesting stat:
New Orleans, LA
In the Last 30 days, New Orleans only has 4 days above normal. Stuck in the 70s and low 80s
While sometimes graphs and stats dont give a real tell of how temps have been here’s the overall look.
What I mean by “real tell”. Sometimes you get 2 hours of temperatures hitting that normal or above normal number but in reality most of the day was below normal. So while it looks above normal on paper, most of the day might of felt cool and actually below normal.
But with the graphic here you can see the Mid Atlantic has been slightly below normal so far this month. New England above normal as has been the case for months now.
Here’s a look at the 500mb pattern so far. Anomaly on the left. Mean on the right. We had a slow moving Upper level low at the beginning of the month which helped keep temps below normal. You can clearly see from the anomaly why and where the above normal temps set up. The mean 500mb picture shows there hasnt been much of a well defined Ridge anywhere but you can make one out in the West.
With this new Upper Level low in the northern Plains right now, it will pop a ridge in the East. … but for how long? Stay tuned to NYNJPA Weather for more current and upcoming weather.
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Categories : Intern Updates
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