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Uncertainty grows for weekend forecast

January 27th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:00 AM
I would love to be able to say I know exactly what is going to transpire over the next five days and I am extremely confident in the forecast I am going to issue. The problem is that I can’t say that and likely won’t be able to say that until Thursday night. Over [...]

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Tricky forecast for this week, timing is everything

January 11th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

Premium Content
7:45 AM
This week the warning that timing is everything could not be truer. The movement of individual disturbances that are still over the Pacific will be key in determining exactly what type of storm is possible for next weekend.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 17°F;Humidity: 67%;Heat Index: 17°F;Wind Chill: 7°F;Pressure: 30.18 in.;

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Morning Model Thoughts

November 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes. The [...]

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Evening thoughts on Ida and potential rainfall

November 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:20 PM
I have some concerns about the idea that this storm isn’t coming north or at the very least is not going to have an impact on the northern Mid Atlantic. As the dance of the models continues and the 18Z GFS shifted towards a wetter solution for the New Jersey coast again, I decided [...]

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Evening Thoughts For This Weekend

February 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:24 PM
I’ve looked at the 12Z guidance and 18Z guidance, and frankly I haven’t changed my thoughts on the situation leading up to Sunday. The upper level features and storm track from 00Z to 12Z on the ECMWF hasn’t changed much, however the guidance does include higher QPF for the forecast area. Meanwhile, the GFS [...]

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Watching The Pressure Trends

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:19 AM
This morning, a defined CAD signature is developing over the southern Mid Atlantic as snow is falling from Washington, D.C. to southern Pennsylvania. Why is the CAD so important?
My concern going into tomorrow morning is not so much heavy snow, which there will be, but for the potential for a significant ice event. [...]

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Forecast Ideas Coming Together, But Still A Lot Of Uncertainty

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:23 AM
The basic ideas of the forecast for the period of Sunday through Wednesday is starting to come together slowly but surely. Let me first say the GFS 00Z and 06Z ideas have little support in developing a strong and defined trough in the West. As such, I basically through the model guidance out in [...]

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The Models Are Wavering, But Forecast Stays The Same

January 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:36 PM
Those that relay completely on model guidance and not reasoning are likely jumping all over the place with the forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours. There are models that are trending warm like the 12Z and 18Z NAM and GFS, cold like the ECMWF and UKMET, or basically staying the same like [...]

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The Trends For Friday Night And Saturday Are Reasons For Concern

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

2:51 PM
If you don’t like snow and ice that is.
I know a lot of people and some forecasters like to take model data verbatum, but frankly that’s rarely a good idea. What I want to point out is some interesting trends in the data, which will be important to keep an eye on going [...]

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Icy Roads And The Radar

December 16th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:02 PM
While radar data suggest that Monmouth County should be all rain, my personal observations and the official observations from Wrightstown to Belmar suggest a different precipitation type. The precipitation that is currently falling over Freehold is freezing rain, sleet, and a bit of snow. The more dangerous precipitation type is obviously the freezing rain, [...]

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