Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
11:26 AM
This morning I discussed the potential outcomes of the storm for the period of Saturday through Sunday. One of the solutions that I discussed was that the upper low over Quebec would be weaker and thus the disturbance dropping over central Ontario would have more of an influence while the negative NAO, still clearly [...]
12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes. The [...]
1:00 PM
Update 3:00 PM: The ECMWF is now in and the model guidance suggests a more organized upper level disturbance at 500 MB with a strong primary low off the New Jersey coast on Friday morning. The ECMWF outcome would lead to strong sustained winds of at least 35 mph with higher gusts and would [...]
12:42 PM
The 12Z GFS is coming in as I type and the stormy potential is becoming more impressive for the Mid Atlantic.
The latest guidance continues the theme of a disturbance over the eastern Rockies from the Sub Tropical Jet Stream interacting with a disturbance from the Polar Jet stream. By Thursday morning, this disturbance intensifies [...]
11:28 AM
So far, the 12Z NAM and part of the 12Z GFS has come out and there are some points I like to make.
There are some comments that the GFS/NAM are warmer. Given the account for some error, the rate of warming at 850 MB is about the same. The warm air at 850 [...]
11:38 AM
Thus far, most of what I though was going to happen has happened. The precipitation is expanding eastward at a faster pace than most guidance suggested, the 12Z GFS has finally caught on to that. The temperatures over most locations are behaving exactly as I thought as well, except for southern New Jersey where [...]
3:30 PM
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are out and both do not show any type of storm for next Saturday, but just a simple yet moisture filled cold front passage. Why?
Well, it’s all at 500 MB that gives us the answer! In the 00Z guidance on Thursday night and Friday, a southern branch disturbance phases [...]
8:59 PM
If you put your ear to the ground, you could hear the fall of a million snow lovers faint to the ground after seeing the 12Z GFS, which basically if taken verbatum would produce a significant snowfall for most of the forecast area, save southern New Jersey (even that location would still get measureable [...]
11:12 AM
Right off the bat, I want to say I don’t have a lot of confidence in the medium and extended forecast for this forecast area and much of the Mid Atlantic. There is a rule I learned long ago from a great professor I had in college, beware of temperature guidance and the ability [...]
8:47 PM
The model guidance is starting to come into better and better agreement with the upcoming pattern after Tuesday afternoon, which may have some very icy implications for the entire forecast area, even the coastal plain.
The main feature I want to focus on is the 12Z GFS, 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, even GEFS ensemble [...]
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