12z Nam | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

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Brief 12Z NAM Thoughts

February 23rd, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

10:08 AM
The latest 12Z NAM is out and boy does it deliver a heck of a snow storm!
The basic idea of the 12Z NAM is to take the 500 MB low over the Tennessee Valley and basically park that upper low over the central New Jersey coastal waters and over Long Island on Thursday [...]

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12Z NAM Thoughts

February 8th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:55 AM
The 12Z NAM is out and to the left is the QPF output for the storm based on this run. Now I know many of you in northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and even New York City are screaming right now in frustration. Is the NAM forecasting a miss for these areas? Well,not exactly.
What [...]

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Thoughts On The 12Z Guidance So Far

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:28 AM
So far, the 12Z NAM and part of the 12Z GFS has come out and there are some points I like to make.
There are some comments that the GFS/NAM are warmer. Given the account for some error, the rate of warming at 850 MB is about the same. The warm air at 850 [...]

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Thoughts On The Afternoon Model Guidance

January 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:20 PM
There’s a lot of excitement over the trend of the model guidance towards a colder solution for Tuesday night and Wednesday, specifically the 18Z GFS.
While I can understand the excitement, I want to state that the 18Z GFS does not exactly have the strongest of support. While I agree that a coastal low is [...]

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Developing Clipper Will Bring A Coating Of Snow To Forecast Area

December 6th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

When forecasting the weather, the most import tool a meteorologist has is current observations. In today’s day and age, that also includes great radar and satellite data. What I see this morning is a clipper driving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with more moisture and stronger upper level dynamics than forecasted on most [...]

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