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Father’s Day Forecast not as wet as advertised

June 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:00 AM
The visible satellite picture this morning shows us that once again, yet another weekend has been spoiled by wet, soggy conditions. However, I do have some good news for this afternoon. Note that over the Hudson Valley and over eastern Pennsylvania that the clouds have started to break up and some clouds are lifting [...]

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Strong high pressure brings clear and cool conditions to start the week

March 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:58 AM
The cold front that has been advertised for days on the model guidance is now to the south and west of the forecast area. As seen on the surface map to the left, strong high pressure will build into the forecast area from western Quebec. A northerly wind will bring cool and dry conditions [...]

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Active Storm Track Returns

February 15th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:57 AM
The overall pattern for the end of this week will be pretty active, but will be influenced by the collapse of the 50/50 low and the overall evolution of the higher latitude 500 MB pattern.
First, let’s discuss the up coming rain storm for the forecast area. The complete collapse of the negative NAO [...]

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No Major Storm For The Forecast Area, But Cold Conditions Will Return

February 14th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:25 AM
As I was discussing yesterday, the developmental process of the 50/50 low and the negative NAO in this period is almost cruel compared to what the ECMWF was advertising a few days ago. When looking at the model guidance, I decided not to get too hyped over what the ECMWF was showing due to [...]

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Models Coming Into Agreement For Significant Snow For Forecast Area

January 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:09 AM
Almost all the model guidance is beginning to come into agreement in the overall pattern idea, but there are still difference on exactly how the disturbances develop within the pattern.
Currently I don’t have much of a change in the forecast. My approach as far as model guidance is to take a combination of the [...]

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Minor Snow For Sunday Night Into Monday

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 PM
For the past several days I have advertised the idea of a light snow developing Sunday night through Monday morning for southern portions of the forecast area, specifically for southern New Jersey.
Moisture is now starting to develop over Nebraska and expand eastwards towards the north/central Plains. As this moisture moves eastwards towards the [...]

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Arctic Cold Followed By Major Winter Storm On Sunday

January 14th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:45 AM
I wanted to make a post about the ideas I have on the potential storm on Sunday, however I saw some data on the model guidance coming in at 00Z and thought better to do some research first before posting. So off I went diving into the KU book for some additional guidance and [...]

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Thoughts For The Weekend And Beyond

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:41 PM
I can tell the excitement is building for Saturday based on the emails that have flooded my inbox this afternoon. Yes, the model guidance, and I mean all model guidance, is picking up on the potential for the Alberta Clipper on Saturday.
Before we get into the model guidance, let’s get back to the basics [...]

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Active Winter Weather To Continue

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:58 AM
The pattern will continue to amplify towards the end of the week and into the weekend. I want to touch on some points about the overall pattern first before discussion the forecast.
There is some discussion that the pattern appears to be like a return to mid December with a raging postive NAO. This is [...]

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The 12Z Guidance And Thoughts For Friday

December 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:59 PM
If you put your ear to the ground, you could hear the fall of a million snow lovers faint to the ground after seeing the 12Z GFS, which basically if taken verbatum would produce a significant snowfall for most of the forecast area, save southern New Jersey (even that location would still get measureable [...]

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