Tag Archive for 'amplification' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Arctic Express On The Way Along With More Snow Potential

January 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:49 AM
The theme going forward will likely crush the forecast for anyone going for a warm January. The combination of a strong negative EPO and the postion of the upper low over eastern Canada will support a very cold air mass to dive into the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
There can be no doubt that [...]

Tags: alberta clippers, amplification, arctic express, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, branch energy, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air mass, cold arctic air, combinations, dives, doubts, eastern canada, Energy, epo, er, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, guidance, Gulf Coast, high, high potential, light snow, low, lows, medium range, metros, mid, Model Guidance, models, moisture, moisture in the atmosphere, no doubt, Philadelphia, postion, s, scream, screams, showers, significant snow, snow, snow event, snow showers, warm, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Significant Snow Finally On The Way?

January 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:37 AM
There is a growing agreement in the model guidance that a significant snowfall will impact much of the forecast area.
There’s a lot to discuss, but my ideas which I have presented have not changed overall, but I am able now to get in to some details on how this storm will develop on Saturday.
First, [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, amounts, amplification, area, atmosphere, boarder, cloudy weather, coast, cold, cold period, degree c, discussion, ecmwf, evenings, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, frontogenesis, gfs, guidance, high, Jets, lifting, low, low pressure system, lows, map, mb temperatures, metros, mid, Model Guidance, models, nam, normal, normals, north, Ohio, periods, Philadelphia, precipitation, pva, qpf, rain areas, Ridge, s, sleet, snow, snowfall, soundings, south, sref, Storm, storms, systems, temperature, temperatures, ukmet, valleys, warm, watches, weather, weather conditions, west, wills. Technical Discussions 3 Comments

Thoughts For The Weekend And Beyond

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:41 PM
I can tell the excitement is building for Saturday based on the emails that have flooded my inbox this afternoon. Yes, the model guidance, and I mean all model guidance, is picking up on the potential for the Alberta Clipper on Saturday.
Before we get into the model guidance, let’s get back to the basics [...]

Tags: 18z gfs, advertisement, alberta clipper, amplification, area, Atlantic, bowling ball, bulls eye, clipper, clippers, coast, coffee, cold, Colorado, confidence, continuation, delmarva, delmarva peninsula, digs, Disturbance, ecmwf, Energy, evenings, excitement, ey, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecast area, forecast period, forecaster, forecasters, frontogenesis, gfs, Giants, guidance, heck, lake ontario, level jet, low, lows, mid, Mississippi, Model Guidance, models, nam, nao, Ohio, outlier, periods, Phillies, pva, qpf, Ridge, s, snow, south, Storm, storm track, storms, stream energy, surfaces, train, Trough, ukmet, valleys, warm, west, west coast, wilderness, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Active Pattern Unfolding

January 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:00 AM
I want to deal with a few issues before going into the forecast.
First, the strong NAO is not a pattern that supports significant winter storms usually. It is the change from one NAO state to another that tends to support large winter storms. The best case scenario is a weak, negative NAO or a [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, amplification, area, best case scenario, blocking, coast, cold, cold air, cold solution, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, driving rain, east, epo, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, gfs, guidance, high, Hudson Valley, ice, low, lows, meteorologist, mid, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, north, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, pna, Poughkeepsi, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Ridge, s, short time, signature, sleet, snow, snow and ice, snow sleet, Storm, storms, surface features, surfaces, temperature, temperatures, transition, valleys, visa, waa, warm, wills, Winter, winter storm. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

The January Outlook

January 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 PM
December has come and gone along with all the holiday cheer, it’s time to look to see what the rest of January holds for the forecast area. Will the negative NAO be a major factor? Will the Pacific get back into the game or will January be a warm and boring month?
The basic idea [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, amplification, anomalies, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic sst, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgrt, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, Connecticut, continuation, digs, Disturbance, dominance, epo, extreme cold, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, game, games, guidance, Hartford, high, higher latitudes, Hudson Valley, ice, interaction, Islip, latitude, Long Island, low, lows, mid, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North America, north pole, northern asia, Ohio, pacific waters, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Rain, relaxation, Ridge, Rockies, Scranton, sea surface temperatures, signature, slides, snow, snowfall, Southeast, Southwest, sst, state of flux, Storm, storms, stratosphere, surfaces, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, troposphere, tropospheric temperatures, Trough, troughs, upper atmosphere, valleys, warm, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter events. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Major Winter Storm On The Way For Friday

December 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:56 AM
This period of the forecast is growing increasingly interesting. While I continue to stress that the forecasting of snow/mix/rain lines is still around 24 (preliminary) to 66 hours away, the basic ideas in the model guidance are coming together for a significant storm to impact the forecast area. Let’s look at the general idea [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, bust, busts, cad, clipper, coast, Coastal Storm, cold, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, crash, delmarva, delmarva peninsula, Disturbance, dives, east, Energy, england, evenings, ey, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, friday morning, general idea, Great Lakes, greenland, guidance, Hartford, high, illustrations, intensity, Islip, Jets, Long Island, low, lows, maximums, metros, mid, Mid Atlantic, Milliville, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, Rain, s, saturday morning, Scranton, snow, snow mix, south, specifics, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, time period, Trenton, valleys, Virginia, virginia coast, warm, warm temperatures, weather, weather conditions, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Thoughts On The Greenland Block Developing

December 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:12 AM
I don’t think there needs to be any more debate on whether the NAO will go negative or whether a block will form over Greenland. The fact is that the block has already formed over the eastern North Atlantic (think northwestern Europe) and is starting to retrograde towards Greenland.
Now what does this block [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bport, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air, Connecticut, Disturbance, dives, fashion, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, greenland, Hartford, high, Islip, least resistance, Long Island, low, low pressure systems, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northwestern europe, Ohio, ontario quebec, opinions, pace, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, pressure down, quebec, Reading, relaxation, Ridge, s, Scranton, scream, screams, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, transition, Trough, valleys, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Initial Warm Period To Give Way To Cold And Stormy Pattern

December 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

6:53 AM
Instead of the several days of warm conditions, the developing negative NAO and pattern amplification will give the forecast area two warm days and some perfect timing for the weekend! Well, almost perfect as I expect rain, but at least there won’t be any serious travel problems.
A cold front will slowly move towards [...]

Tags: Albany, alberta clippers, Allentown, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Boston, Bport, clipper, clippers, cloudy skies, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air mass, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, greenland, Hartford, high, intensity, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, measurable snowfall, measurement, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, Pennsylvania, perfect timing, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, quebec, Rain, Reading, Ridge, s, saturday and sunday, Scranton, showers, snow, snowfall, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, time period, travel problems, Trough, warm, warm period, warm sector, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

A Clipper Threat For Sunday Marks The Medium Range

December 3rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Can you hear that? Can you hear the beat of excitement grow for this Sunday? There are even hints on the morning news of a snow threat. Well, now let’s wait for a moment before we all start doing snow dances and watching individual model runs at 3 AM. Does the upper level pattern support [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, boundary layer, Bridgeport, canadian maritimes, central Pennsylvania, circulation, clipper, coast, cold, Connecticut, east, ecmwf, england, evenings, excitement, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, frozen precipitation, gfs, guidance, Hartford, intensity, Islip, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, mid, mid levels, models, moderation, morning news, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, Northeast, Ocean, Ohio, Pennsylvania, pepper, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, Reading, s, Scranton, seasonal trends, showers, signals, significant snow, slowing down, snow, snow dances, snow event, snowfall, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, transition, transitions, Trough, Virginia, virginia coast, watches, waves, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Components For A Northeast Snow Storm

November 23rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know there is a lot of excitement for the model runs over the past couple of days. There has been plenty of rumors of potential storms and very impressive arctic out breaks. However, ahead of the hysteria and excitement that we are all feeling (cause let’s face it, the winters the past 3 years [...]

Tags: advection, Alabama, alabama gulf coast, Albany, Allentown, amounts, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, axis, Belmar, Boston, Bport, cad, canada, cold, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, couple of days, cyclogenesis, discussion, Disturbance, divergence, east, england, explaination, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, Hartford, high, hysteria, intensity, Islip, Jets, likelihood, Long Island, low, lows, Mexico, Michigan, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, models, moderation, moisture, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north atlantic oscillation, north observation, Northeast, northern new england, observations, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, quebec, Rain, Reading, Ridge, s, Scranton, snow, snow storm, snowfall, south, Southeast, southeastern ontario, Southern New England, southwestern quebec, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Tropical, tropics, Trough, Vermont, warm, Washington, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment