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9:25 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning. My primary focus is going to be on the pattern relaxation and then amplification for the medium and long range, but I want to touch on the light snow event for tonight into tomorrow first.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 32°F;Humidity: 59%;Heat Index: 32°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 29.92 [...]
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11:20 AM
This is what we call a close call!
It is pretty clear at this point that the Sub Tropical and Polar disturbances will phase too late and too far east to have much of an effect on the northern Mid Atlantic. However, just take a look at how close this phase was to [...]
3:22 PM
This morning I discussed why I was hesitant to buy into a major or moderate snow producer for the northern Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. There were two main contentions in the guidance. The first was a lack of amplification of the ridge over the eastern Rockies, needed to support [...]
8:32 AM
While high pressure gains control tonight over the Mid Atlantic to provide excellent weather conditions over the next several days, trouble is brewing over the western Caribbean. Tropical Depression Ida is reentering the warm Caribbean Sea this evening and is expected to strengthen back into a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon. Ida is expected [...]
5:15 AM
The early fall pattern can sometimes give us a preview of some characteristics of the late fall and possibly winter pattern and if that’s the case, then the one characteristic that really stands out is amplification. Over the next several days, a strong ridge will build over the western third of the nation up [...]
5:20 PM
This afternoon, the trough that brought overcast conditions to much of the northern Mid Atlantic through this morning is exiting the Northeastern coast. Note the axis of this trough, which is tilted from southwest to northeast. This tilt is caused a “positive” tilt and at this position with the axis along the region, subsidence [...]
6:18 PM
The upper level pattern is about to go into a significant transition from a progressive pattern to one of significant amplification. Of all the model guidance, I believe the ECMWF is the most aggressive, however the ECMWF has an established track record of picking up these pattern changes so the model should not be [...]
6:52 AM
Winter is not going to go out without a fight, which may mean March comes in like a Lion. Before discussing the potential of the storm, let’s look at how the cold air gets into the forecast area first.
There is very strong agreement that a strong cold front will drive towards the East coast [...]
6:05 AM
There is strong agreement in the model guidance that a very strong Arctic cold front will plow through the forecast area on Friday with heavy rain and rapidly falling temperatures on Friday evening. The cold air behind this cold front is rather impressive for late February and early March, and I think the MOS [...]
6:20 AM
Last night I discussed the fact that the 12Z ECWMF from yesterday was not a solution to be trusted given the overall state of the current atmospheric set up. There was some confusion by some about what I was saying. So let me be very detailed here.
1. Just because there is an upper low [...]
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