NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Light rain and snow tonight leads to minor accumulations

6:36 PM
I have been hinting for some time that the precipitation shield for tonight’s storm was going to be more expansive than what was being forecasted.  However, I am not very impressed with the accumulation potential for this storm.  The first and foremost is the warm boundary layer temperatures.
Besides the fact that the surface freezing [...]

Why I’m concerned about heavy snow along the New Jersey Coast

10:50 AM
Premium Post
This morning I discussed my concern for convective snowfall along the New Jersey coast in the public post.  I wanted to give more details on this threat this morning.
This morning I took a look at the latest sounding from OKX, which is on Long Island.  Granted, the sounding is still a bit of [...]

Low pressure this weekend acts more like a warm front

7:28 AM
This morning, high pressure is the dominant player over much of the northern Mid Atlantic with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 10’s over the interior and lower 20’s to lower 30’s along the coast.  Naturally, the urban areas of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan are the warmest this morning. [...]

Morning Model Thoughts

12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes.  The [...]

Evening Thoughts- another rain event unfolding

9:15 PM

This evening’s water vapor shows that the atmosphere is full of moisture moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Mid Atlantic.
A strong disturbance is developing over the southern Plains and driving north and east towards the Great Lakes.  Over the next 48 hours, that strong disturbance over the Plains [...]

Position of upper low key for weekend

6:42 AM
Much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas are starting off very chilly this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s throughout the region.  Temperatures will rebound into the 50’s and 60’s for afternoon highs, but even for the first day of October, the temperatures today will average well below [...]

Showers advancing and thoughts on next week

8:40 AM
Showers have organized this morning at a much faster rate than I thought and model guidance suggested over the eastern Great Lakes and western Pennsylvania this morning.
These showers are producing moderate rainfall at times and like making conditions over my old college, SUNY Oswego, very wet and uncomfortable.
These scattered showers are racing from southwest [...]

Threats to consider today-flash flooding and tornadoes?

9:00 AM
A tornado watch is in effect over much of central and southern New Jersey this morning and is in effect until 12 PM.  The potential in an isolated tornado lies within the thunderstorms entering from the Atlantic and moving over the coastal plain.  The majority of these thunderstorms are weak and are not expected [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Sunday August 30, 2009

4:45 AM
With Danny exiting the tropical Atlantic and becoming an extratropical low pressure system, the tropical Atlantic has returned to a quiet state.
Once again, the majority of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a series of upper lows that continue to inhibit development of any tropical wave.  One upper low is situated over the western [...]

An important day for the rest of the week

8:15 AM
The events that unfold today to the north of the Caribbean Islands will be key to the forecast going forward.  This morning the tropical disturbance clearly has a developed circulation at the mid levels and may have finally established a circulation at the surface.  Consider the development of this disturbance like a drill digging [...]