NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

More thoughts on this storm

8:13 AM

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 54%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 20°F;Pressure: 30.33 in.;

MJO on the move and a return of a real wintery threat showing up

10:05 AM
Premium Content
Over the past three weeks, the 500 MB pattern has been generally unfavorable for any significant winter storms for a variety of reasons.  At first, the overwhelming strength of the negative NAO suppressed any potential for Sub Tropical disturbances to interact with the cold air at place, leading to a cold and dry [...]

Pleasant weekend after storm exits, changes on the way

7:49 AM
This morning we have an excellent example of why winter storms are so hard to come by in the northern Mid Atlantic and why all features must be in place just right.  In this case, the Sub Tropical disturbance certainly delivered with an energetic and impressive storm developing off the North Carolina coast.  A [...]

Morning Model Thoughts

12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes.  The [...]

Position of upper low key for weekend

6:42 AM
Much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas are starting off very chilly this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s throughout the region.  Temperatures will rebound into the 50’s and 60’s for afternoon highs, but even for the first day of October, the temperatures today will average well below [...]

Evening Thoughts: A very wet Saturday expected

9:07 PM
This evening I want to focus on what is unfolding to be a very wet start to the weekend.
Through this week, the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas will be under the influence a strong upper low centered over New England with a trough axis bisecting the region, cutting right down New Jersey. [...]

Dry period before a wet weekend

5:15 AM
A very interesting pattern will unfold over the next several days as a series of impressive upper level lows impact much of the nation.
The majority of the precipitation associated with the upper low over northern and central New York this afternoon has already exited the region in the form of a strong cold front [...]

Drier weather ahead, but pattern amplification on the way

6:18 PM
The upper level pattern is about to go into a significant transition from a progressive pattern to one of significant amplification.  Of all the model guidance, I believe the ECMWF is the most aggressive, however the ECMWF has an established track record of picking up these pattern changes so the model should not be [...]

Something to keep an eye on

11:45 AM
This morning there is an a lot of moisture sitting off the Southeast coast that has me very suspicious.  The moisture is being drawn northward by a strong upper low that is positioned over eastern Texas this morning.  However, there seems to be some upper level cyclonic development off of the eastern Florida coast [...]

Hot Conditions Continue For A Few More Days

5:15 AM
The forecast area has been under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure from the surface to 500 MB, which has lead to temperatures throughout the forecast area reaching the lower 90’s for highs.  The position of the ridge has allowed plenty of low level moisture into the forecast area as well [...]