Tag Archive for 'blocking' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS. However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

Tags: a, air express, amounts, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, blocking, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air, cold conditions, CONUS, different perspective, Disturbance, dives, doors, doubts, east, ecmwf, Energy, epo, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, game, games, gfs, greenland, guidance, interaction, lifting, low, lows, map, maps, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, north, Northeast, northeastern connecticut, nuetral, Philadelphia, pv, Rain, Ridge, s, shortwave, shortwaves, snowfall, snowfall amounts, south, south storm, storm track, storms, surface maps, surfaces, surprise, systems, Trough, ukmet, weeke, west, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Active Winter Weather To Continue

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:58 AM
The pattern will continue to amplify towards the end of the week and into the weekend. I want to touch on some points about the overall pattern first before discussion the forecast.
There is some discussion that the pattern appears to be like a return to mid December with a raging postive NAO. This is [...]

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Growing Snow Threat For Next Weekend

January 4th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:30 AM
The pattern developing for the end of the week and into the weekend is one of a classic KU set up that we’ve seen before. Now, before everyone goes nuts, I am not suggesting that a KU storm is on the way. I can’t say that at for another 3 or 4 days. What [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bport, coast, cold, cold air mass, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, Energy, epo, evenings, Freehold, friday night, guidance, Hartfod, high, intensity, Islip, ku, Long Island, low, lows, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern stream, nuts, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, pna, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, quebec, Ridge, s, saturday evening, saturday night, Scranton, snow, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, transition, Trenton, Trough, ups, watches, weeke, west, west coast, White Plains, wills, Winter, winter storms. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Active Pattern Unfolding

January 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:00 AM
I want to deal with a few issues before going into the forecast.
First, the strong NAO is not a pattern that supports significant winter storms usually. It is the change from one NAO state to another that tends to support large winter storms. The best case scenario is a weak, negative NAO or a [...]

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Quiet Start To Weekend Followed By Active Stretch

January 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:50 AM
High pressure is currently in control over the forecast area leading to clear skies over much of the region with cold temperatures in place. High pressure will slide to the north and east of the forecast area through the day, giving way to a weakening area of low pressure for tomorrow.
As discussed before, the [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, clear skies, clouds, coast, cold, cold temperatures, Connecticut, discussion, Disturbance, east, evening hours, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, high, Hudson Valley, Islip, Long Island, low, low pressure system, lows, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Pennsylvania, Philadelaphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain and snow, scattered rain, Scranton, Shear, short stay, showers, slides, snow, snow showers, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, White Plains, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Thoughts On The Afternoon Model Guidance

January 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:20 PM
There’s a lot of excitement over the trend of the model guidance towards a colder solution for Tuesday night and Wednesday, specifically the 18Z GFS.
While I can understand the excitement, I want to state that the 18Z GFS does not exactly have the strongest of support. While I agree that a coastal low is [...]

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Active Pattern Continues For Next Week

January 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
The new year is certainly starting off with a bang this year, unfortunately that does not mean snow for all.
The main theme through this period will be the changing Pacific and Atlantic patterns. The negative NAO block will begin to weaken, however already the ECMWF is backing away from the complete collapse idea and [...]

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The January Outlook

January 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 PM
December has come and gone along with all the holiday cheer, it’s time to look to see what the rest of January holds for the forecast area. Will the negative NAO be a major factor? Will the Pacific get back into the game or will January be a warm and boring month?
The basic idea [...]

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Active And Blocking Pattern Ready To Rock Start Of 2009

December 31st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:07 AM
There are some interesting themes that are coming from the medium range guidance over the past few runs that need to be addressed as we move into the first full week of January, 2009.
The first theme that the model generally agree on is that the block over Greenland will significantly intensify to build down [...]

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Tricky Forecast, To Snow Or Not To Snow

December 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:55 AM
Going into this period, I was hoping that model guidance would improve in sheilding some light on the events that will play out on Friday. To some extent, the guidance has given me a better idea of what to expect here. The general consencious is that the clipper to drive towards the Great Lakes [...]

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