Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
4:09 PM
I’m sure everyone has seen the latest 12Z guidance. The GFS is having trouble with the upper level features and the ECMWF is beginning to strut it’s stuff in the type 3 to 7 day span of dominance of accuracy.
Do I believe the ECMWF, well to an extent yes. I don’t want to put [...]
6:53 AM
Instead of the several days of warm conditions, the developing negative NAO and pattern amplification will give the forecast area two warm days and some perfect timing for the weekend! Well, almost perfect as I expect rain, but at least there won’t be any serious travel problems.
A cold front will slowly move towards [...]
I know there is a lot of excitement for the model runs over the past couple of days. There has been plenty of rumors of potential storms and very impressive arctic out breaks. However, ahead of the hysteria and excitement that we are all feeling (cause let’s face it, the winters the past 3 years [...]
An impressive tropical disturbance to the south and east of Puerto Rico is quickly becoming better organized and will likely become a new tropical depression by this evening if not sooner. The upper level winds over the next 48 hours will briefly become more favorable for development of this tropical disturbance and there is some [...]
Tropical Storm Hanna or what is quickly becoming the remnants of Hanna, is starting to move over southern New Jersey and will progress towards Long Island this evening.
The heavy rain will now focus from central and northern New Jersey through southern New York and Connecticut. Hanna is still retaining some tropical characteristics, especially on [...]
The center of Tropical Storm is passing just to the south of Cape May, New Jersey. The heaviest rain is now concentrating over eastern Pennsylvania to the New Jersey coast. Rainfall rates over central New Jersey, specifically over Monmouth, Ocean, and Burlington Counties, are around 1 to 2 inches per hour. The rainfall will remain [...]
Tropical Storm Hanna is now moving over the Chesapeake Bay as heavy rainfall continues to fall from central Pennsylvania towards the coastline.
The heavy rainfall seen over Pennsylvania will very slowly move to the east over the entire forecast area over the 6 to 8 hours. The idea of 1/2 an inch to 1 and [...]
The latest doppler radar rainfall estimates are really impressive this afternoon. Based on the estimates, the Baltimore metro up through Lancaster and off to Scranton, Pennsylvania have received anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rain already with more to come. In fact, from Bethel Pennsylvania on south through Baltimore, rainfall amounts are estimated at [...]
The heavy rainfall is beginning to fill in along the coast of New Jersey as Hanna approaches the Chesapeake Bay at this hour.
Through the afternoon, expect rainfall rates to intensify along the coast from Philadelphia on eastward as Hanna approaches the forecast area. Expect the worst conditions beginning around 2:30 PM on through 11 [...]
I’ve been tracking the radar echoes and the low level moisture convergence data via RUC data. The latest data suggest that the heaviest rainfall will fall over locations like Hazleton, Bethel, Lancaster, and Harrisburg.
This does not mean that heavy rain will not fall over the rest of the forecast area, only that the heavy [...]
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